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TSMC lifts revenue forecast on surging AI chip demand after record profit

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world’s largest chipmaker, raised its full-year revenue forecast after reporting a record quarterly profit, citing booming demand for artificial intelligence chips. The results reinforced investor confidence in the AI megatrend, which continues to drive growth across the semiconductor industry despite fears of overheating.

TSMC said it now expects 2025 revenue to grow in the mid-30% range in U.S. dollar terms, up from its previous forecast of around 30%. The company maintained its capital expenditure outlook at up to $42 billion for 2025. “AI demand continues to be stronger than we expected three months ago,” CEO C.C. Wei told analysts, adding that customer requests for expanded capacity remain high.

The company’s robust performance comes amid a flurry of billion-dollar partnerships between AI developers and chipmakers, including OpenAI’s collaborations with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom to build massive data center capacity. TSMC manufactures chips for all three, as well as for Apple.

In the July–September quarter, TSMC’s net profit surged 39.1% year-on-year to T$452.3 billion ($14.76 billion), easily beating market expectations of T$417.7 billion. Wei said the company remains confident that demand for leading-edge semiconductors is “real” and will continue through 2026, despite geopolitical uncertainties and potential U.S. tariffs on chip imports.

TSMC shares have risen 38% this year, far outpacing Taiwan’s broader market, as the company cements its dominance in the global AI supply chain.

ASML said it expects Chinese sales to fall “significantly” next year, after having made up nearly half of company sales in 2024 and a third so far in 2025. CFO Roger Dassen said on a media call the decline was a “normalization” and not due to stockpiling amid the U.S.-China trade war. U.S.-led export restrictions mean ASML cannot sell its most advanced tools in China, a point of contention between the superpowers, with China recently tightening control of exports of rare earth metals. ASML said it would not be affected by those restrictions in the short term. ASML said sales will be, at worst, flat in 2026, from around 32.5 billion euros ($37.82 billion) in 2025. “We believe the bearish view of a worse than expected 2026 will be put to rest and the market will focus on the extent the company can grow in 2027”, JPMorgan analysts said. ASML’s lithography tools, key for making chip circuitry, are sold to TSMC of Taiwan (2330.TW), opens new tab – which makes most AI chips for Nvidia – and to other logic chip firms such as China’s SMIC (0981.HK), opens new tab and Intel (INTC.O), opens new tab. It also serves memory chip makers like Samsung (005930.KS), opens new tab, SK Hynix (000660.KS), opens new tab and Micron (MU.O), opens new tab. The company reported third-quarter net income of 2.12 billion euros, in line with the 2.11 billion euros analysts expected, according to LSEG IBES data.

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ASML, the world’s leading manufacturer of chip-making machines, surpassed market expectations for new orders as global demand for AI technologies continues to surge. CEO Christophe Fouquet highlighted that the company is experiencing “continued positive momentum around investments in AI,” which is fueling growth in both advanced logic and memory chip sectors.

The Dutch tech giant reported net bookings of €5.40 billion for the third quarter, slightly above analysts’ forecasts, and confirmed a net income of €2.12 billion — matching market expectations. ASML’s shares have jumped 37% since September and rose an additional 3.2% in early trading to €873.80.

However, ASML warned that sales to China are expected to fall sharply next year after years of rapid growth. CFO Roger Dassen described the dip as a “normalization” rather than a response to U.S.-China trade tensions. U.S. export controls continue to prevent ASML from selling its most advanced lithography systems in China, though the company said recent Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports won’t affect it in the near term.

ASML now forecasts flat sales in 2026, around €32.5 billion, before growth resumes in 2027. Analysts at JPMorgan believe market concerns over a weaker 2026 will ease, shifting focus toward the company’s long-term expansion prospects. ASML’s customers include major chipmakers such as TSMC, Intel, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, which all play critical roles in AI hardware development.

China’s SiCarrier subsidiary launches homegrown chip design software amid U.S. tech tensions

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A subsidiary of SiCarrier, a Chinese chip equipment manufacturer with close ties to Huawei, has unveiled two domestically developed chip design software tools, marking another step in China’s drive for semiconductor self-sufficiency, according to Chinese state-backed outlet The Paper.

The SiCarrier unit, called Yunqifang, introduced two electronic design automation (EDA) programs with fully independent intellectual property rights, aiming to reduce China’s reliance on Western technology in chip design. EDA software is critical to developing the blueprints of advanced semiconductors, which are central to modern electronics and artificial intelligence.

The announcement comes as U.S.-China tech tensions escalate. Earlier this year, Washington temporarily restricted exports of EDA tools to China after Beijing suspended exports of rare earths and magnets, which are vital for chipmaking. Analysts have warned that prolonged U.S. restrictions could cripple China’s semiconductor design capabilities, where it still trails the United States.

The timing of the launch coincides with U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed threats to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and expand export controls on “any and all critical software” by November 1, days before current tariff relief is due to expire.

Founded in 2021 and owned by the Shenzhen city government, SiCarrier has emerged as a strategic player in China’s semiconductor industry, aligning with Beijing’s push for technological self-reliance. Its progress reflects the broader effort to build a complete, homegrown semiconductor ecosystem capable of withstanding foreign trade pressures.