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US Investors Shift Focus from Chipmakers to Software Amid AI Investment Evolution

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As the AI investment boom slows, U.S. chip stocks, which were the biggest beneficiaries of last year’s surge, are struggling in 2025. The spotlight has shifted to software companies, which are now seen as the next big play in AI. This shift comes as volatility driven by tariffs and concerns about diminishing demand, coupled with the rise of lower-cost AI models from China’s DeepSeek, have weighed on semiconductor shares.

The shift towards software is being viewed by several analysts as a long-term evolution of the AI investment landscape. According to David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, there’s been a noticeable “rotation” in investor focus, especially in light of the developments surrounding DeepSeek, the semiconductor outperformance of 2024, and the ongoing restrictions on U.S. chip exports to China. “Investors are looking for the next three-to-five-year stories… those companies that will benefit from what Nvidia has already done,” he added.

So far in 2025, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has fallen 5.6%, with Nvidia, a major player in the industry, down nearly 13%. In contrast, several software companies have seen significant gains, with stocks like Atlassian, CrowdStrike Holdings, Palantir Technologies, and Cognizant rising between 7% and 19%. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking software companies have also seen substantial inflows. For example, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has attracted over $1.87 billion in 2025, already surpassing last year’s total inflows.

Analysts argue that this shift is a natural progression for AI investments, as the primary use cases for AI technology are in software. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, emphasized that LPL prefers software stocks over semiconductors, a sentiment shared by Morgan Stanley. “The second stage of the innovation cycle is when people start utilizing products, and that’s when the software companies start getting paid… we’re now starting to see the ascendancy of the software part of the equation,” said Keith Weiss, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

This trend is driven by concerns about how long chip stocks can sustain their growth rates, with some investors rethinking the value of these stocks as software companies continue to improve their market position. The rise of DeepSeek’s more affordable chatbot, which competes with expensive direct-to-consumer AI products, is one factor contributing to a more cautious outlook on semiconductors. According to Brian Mulberry, portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, competition will likely reduce profits for these products, while enterprise software companies may find it easier to monetize new AI technology.

The shift toward software stocks is also influenced by the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade tensions, which have hurt semiconductor companies. Analysts have named companies such as Palantir, Microsoft, Oracle, and Salesforce as key players in the software space, though their performance has been mixed in 2025. Palantir, which offers AI software to businesses, has seen its stock rally, while Microsoft and Salesforce have struggled, down 4.9% and 12.6%, respectively.

Despite these fluctuations, some investors remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for software companies. While valuations for software giants like Microsoft and Oracle are still considered high—trading at 27 and 23 times forward earnings, respectively—investors like Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, argue that the focus should be on AI applications, not just chips. “We don’t need more Nvidia chips, we need applications,” she said.

Chipmakers Surge on Optimism Fueled by AI Demand

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Shares of chipmakers saw significant gains on Monday, driven by optimism surrounding strong AI-driven demand. Microsoft’s plan to invest $80 billion in AI-enabled data centers in fiscal 2025 sparked expectations that semiconductor demand will remain robust. Micron (MU.O) led the charge with a 10.6% rise in its stock, while other key players like Applied Materials (AMAT.O), Lam Research (LRCX.O), and KLA Corp (KLAC.O) saw increases between 5.1% and 5.5%.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX) surged 3.9%, reaching its highest point since mid-October, and has risen over 19% in 2024. The broader Nasdaq (.IXIC) also advanced, leading Wall Street’s major indexes higher, while semiconductor stocks in Europe and South Korea saw similar gains.

Citigroup noted that while Microsoft’s spending plan was in line with analysts’ expectations, it was seen as a “modest positive” for the sector, alleviating concerns about a potential drop in capital expenditure.

“AI data centers are very chip hungry, that’s why you have people running towards the chip sector right now,” said Michael Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors.

The strong demand for AI servers, evidenced by Foxconn’s (2317.TW) record revenue for Q4, further fueled the sector’s positive momentum. Nvidia (NVDA.O), a key Foxconn customer, added 5.1%, with CEO Jensen Huang scheduled to deliver a keynote speech at the CES trade show later in the day. AI server manufacturer Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) saw a 10.3% surge.

Although Nvidia’s quarterly results in November pointed to a slowdown in revenue growth, the surge in demand for the company’s AI chips, which dominate the market, has mitigated those concerns.

 

SK Hynix Spurs Rally in Asian Semiconductor Stocks with Mass Production of Advanced AI Chip

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SK Hynix shares surged by over 9% on Thursday after the South Korean chipmaker announced the mass production of a new high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chip designed for AI applications. The company revealed that the HBM3E chip, the first 12-layer version of its kind, will be ready for delivery by the end of the year. This updated chip boasts a 36 GB capacity, marking a 50% increase from the previous 8-layer version, all while maintaining the same physical thickness.

SK Hynix has positioned itself as a key player in the AI memory chip market, supplying HBM chips to major tech firms like Nvidia. With the new 12-layer HBM3E chip, the company seeks to solidify its dominance in the space, offering advanced solutions for high-end generative AI workloads.

HBM chips are dynamic random access memory (DRAM) components that are stacked vertically, allowing for more compact designs and reduced power consumption. The global HBM market is currently dominated by SK Hynix, Micron Technology, and Samsung Electronics.

Micron Technology also made headlines by issuing better-than-expected revenue and profit forecasts for its fiscal first quarter, citing strong demand for HBM chips. Micron expects $8.7 billion in revenue and profits of $1.74 per share, surpassing market estimates. This positive outlook, coupled with SK Hynix’s announcement, led to a rally in Asian semiconductor stocks.

In Japan, Tokyo Electron’s shares rose 7%, and Advantest climbed 5%, while Samsung Electronics saw a 3% gain. The South Korean Kospi index also responded positively, increasing by 2% as the sector benefitted from these developments.