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Treasury Yields Drop as Investors Evaluate Economic Outlook Post Fed Rate Cut

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On Friday, U.S. Treasury yields fell as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut and its implications for the economic outlook. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped approximately three basis points to 4.3131%, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell over three basis points, settling at 4.1849% as of 3:43 a.m. ET. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, respond in basis points—each representing 0.01%.

The drop in yields followed Thursday’s announcement by the Federal Reserve of a 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.50%-4.75%. The move, while anticipated, marked a continuation of the Fed’s gradual rate-reduction approach, which began with a 50-basis-point cut in September.

Investors closely examined Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments in the post-meeting press conference for hints on future policy direction. Powell reiterated the Fed’s commitment to a flexible approach, stating decisions would be made on a “meeting by meeting” basis, with no predetermined path for monetary policy. Despite recent economic pressures, Powell expressed confidence, noting he was “feeling good” about the current economic landscape.

Looking ahead, market participants are focusing on the December 17-18 Fed meeting, where the CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates a 75% probability of another rate cut. Friday’s investor attention also turns to upcoming consumer sentiment data, which could provide further insight into economic conditions. The October inflation report, set for release next week, is also expected to be a critical indicator for future Fed actions.

 

Market Drop as Meta, Microsoft Warnings Weigh Heavy on Nasdaq; Dollar Softens Post U.S. Data

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Global stock markets took a downturn on Thursday, led by a 2% drop in the Nasdaq index following cost warnings from Meta Platforms and Microsoft over artificial intelligence investments. Meta and Microsoft shares slid 3.2% and 5.6%, respectively, raising investor concerns over the time it will take to see returns on AI expenses. Both companies’ declines contributed to negative momentum on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Attention now shifts to Amazon and Apple, which are set to release their results later.

U.S. consumer spending data showed a slight uptick in September, pushing the economy onto a stronger growth path for Q4. However, the increase is largely attributed to essential spending areas such as healthcare and housing. The dollar saw minor weakening, with notable losses against the yen after the Bank of Japan’s unexpectedly less dovish stance, and the euro gained ground due to unexpectedly high inflation figures in the Eurozone for October.

The dollar index remained steady at 104.13, while the euro inched up to $1.0866, and the dollar slipped 0.53% to 152.59 yen. As the November Fed meeting approaches, market sentiment sees a 25-basis-point rate reduction as likely, but a double cut in November and December stands at a 70% probability per the CME FedWatch Tool. Key upcoming data include the U.S. October jobs report and next week’s presidential election, where polling shows tight competition between Republican Donald Trump and Democratic VP Kamala Harris.

On Wall Street, the Dow dropped 362.70 points (0.86%) to 41,778.84, the S&P 500 shed 84.93 points (1.46%) to 5,728.74, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 425.71 points (2.29%) to 18,182.22. MSCI’s global index (.MIWD00000PUS) dropped 1.27%, while Europe’s STOXX 600 fell 1.5%, reaching a seven-week low amid a busy earnings period.

In U.S. Treasuries, yields edged higher with the 10-year benchmark up 4.4 basis points at 4.309%, following reports of declining wage inflation coupled with robust consumer spending.

Cryptocurrencies followed the downward trend, with Bitcoin declining 3.02% to $70,640.00 and Ethereum dropping 4.98% to $2,545.70. Gold prices retreated from record highs but stayed on track for a fourth consecutive monthly increase, down 0.7% to $2,766.59 per ounce after peaking at $2,790.15 earlier. Oil prices saw gains, with U.S. crude rising 1.33% to $69.52 per barrel and Brent climbing 0.94% to $73.23 per barrel.

 

UK Inflation Falls Sharply to 1.7%, Below Bank of England’s Target for First Time in Over Three Years

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Inflation in the United Kingdom dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, marking the first time since April 2021 that inflation has fallen below the Bank of England’s (BOE) 2% target. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced the drop on Wednesday, surprising markets as economists had expected a higher inflation rate of 1.9% for the month. The fall from 2.2% in August to 1.7% in September has now intensified speculation about a potential rate cut by the BOE in November.

Core and Services Inflation Drop

Core inflation, which excludes volatile components like energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also fell from 3.6% in August to 3.2% in September, lower than the 3.4% forecast. Meanwhile, inflation in the services sector, a key driver of the UK economy, eased to 4.9% from 5.6%, its lowest rate since May 2022.

These declines in core and services inflation are crucial for the BOE as it assesses whether to adjust interest rates further. A reduction in services inflation, in particular, suggests that underlying price pressures are starting to ease, providing the BOE with more flexibility.

Rate Cuts Anticipated

Following the publication of these inflation figures, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut in November surged to 92%, up from 80%. Analysts are also pricing in a likely follow-up rate cut in December. If the BOE proceeds with these reductions, the key interest rate could fall to 4.5% by the end of the year. The central bank, which had already begun cutting rates in August, held steady in September but now appears more likely to continue easing its restrictive policy.

The BOE’s decisions may also be influenced by a fall in wage growth reported earlier in the week by the ONS. Lower wage growth could further support the case for loosening monetary policy, as inflationary pressures linked to labor costs decline.

Market Reactions and Future Outlook

The release of the lower-than-expected inflation data caused a drop in the British pound, with sterling falling 0.6% against the U.S. dollar to $1.299, dipping below the $1.3 mark for the first time since September 11. The British currency also dropped 0.5% against the euro.

Additionally, yields on British government bonds, or gilts, fell across the board. The two-year gilt yield declined by 9 basis points, while the 10-year gilt yield dropped by 7 basis points.

Although inflation has eased from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022, some economists remain cautious about the longer-term outlook. Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, noted that while the latest figures are reassuring, inflation could rebound in October due to an increase in the energy price cap. Thiru also emphasized that the BOE might wait for the UK Labour government’s budget at the end of October to assess any potential inflationary impacts before committing to further rate cuts.

Similarly, Paul Dales, Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, warned that part of the weakness in core and services inflation was due to a significant drop in airfares. Dales predicted that the BOE may proceed with gradual 25-basis-point rate cuts at every other meeting but expects rates to eventually fall to 3.00%, below the 3.50-3.75% currently priced into markets.

Risk from the Upcoming Budget

The upcoming UK budget on October 30 presents another potential risk for the BOE’s decision-making. Sanjay Raja, Chief UK Economist at Deutsche Bank, suggested that while the inflation figures will be welcomed by the BOE, the government’s fiscal policies may still pose challenges. Raja expects the budget to be expansionary, which could add inflationary pressure despite ongoing fiscal consolidation.

As the BOE weighs its options, the central bank is expected to carefully monitor both the impact of the government’s policies and the global economic environment before determining the pace and scale of its rate-cutting cycle.