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Applied Materials Shares Drop on Weak China Demand and Tariff Uncertainty

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Applied Materials (AMAT.O) shares fell roughly 12% in Friday morning trading after the chip-equipment maker issued a disappointing revenue and profit forecast, raising investor concerns about the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on demand. The decline follows warnings from Dutch rival ASML (ASML.AS), highlighting continued uncertainty over the effects of U.S. tariffs on the semiconductor industry.

CEO Gary Dickerson cited “wide-ranging implications for the semiconductor industry” during a post-earnings call, pointing to lower visibility and heightened uncertainty in the near term due to dynamic policy developments. China, which represented 35% of Applied Materials’ July-quarter sales, has become a key risk as U.S. export restrictions weigh on new equipment orders.

Smaller peer KLA Corp (KLAC.O), which also has a strong presence in China, expects softer demand amid ongoing Sino-U.S. trade tensions, while Deutsche Bank strategists warned that volatility in China is clouding visibility into earnings potential both geopolitically and cyclically.

Applied Materials forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $6.70 billion, plus or minus $500 million, below analysts’ consensus of $7.33 billion. Its projected profit also fell short of expectations. If losses persist, the company could shed over $18 billion from its $151.06 billion market value as of Thursday’s close.

J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur suggested that the slowdown in China reflects timing of spending rather than structural weaknesses. Applied’s stock has risen 1.2% year-to-date, trailing the Nasdaq (.IXIC) up 12.3% and the S&P 500 (.SPX) up 10%.

Shares of other chip-equipment makers, including KLA Corp and Lam Research (LRCX.O), also fell following Applied’s results, down 5.5% and 4.3%, respectively. Applied reported third-quarter revenue of $7.30 billion, up 8% year-on-year and above the $7.22 billion consensus. Its stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19, lower than ASML’s 26.04, Lam’s 23.56, and KLA’s 26.82.

Foxconn Sees AI Driving Growth as Q2 Profit Exceeds Forecast

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Foxconn (2317.TW), the world’s largest iPhone assembler, reported second-quarter net profit of T$44.4 billion ($1.48 billion), surpassing the consensus estimate of T$38.8 billion, as strong demand for AI servers helped offset slower growth in smart electronics. The company on Thursday forecast a significant rise in third-quarter revenue, with AI server sales expected to jump more than 170% year-on-year.

Cloud and networking products, including servers, accounted for 41% of Q2 revenue, while smart consumer electronics contributed 35%. CEO Kathy Yang said, “AI has been the primary growth driver so far this year,” but cautioned that “close attention is needed due to the impact of changes in tariffs and exchange rates.”

Foxconn is increasing capital spending by more than 20% in 2025 to expand server production capacity at its facilities in Texas and Wisconsin. The company’s AI business benefits from rising demand as cloud computing giants such as Amazon (AMZN.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), and Google (GOOGL.O) expand AI infrastructure.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains a risk, particularly from U.S.-China trade tensions, although a 90-day tariff truce has been extended. While most iPhones for Apple (AAPL.O) are assembled in China, production for the U.S. market has shifted mainly to India. Foxconn is also building factories in Mexico and Texas to manufacture AI servers for Nvidia (NVDA.O).

In its electric vehicle (EV) operations, Foxconn sold its former Lordstown, Ohio, factory for $375 million but will continue to occupy the site to produce cloud-related products. Initial production of its Model C EV for the U.S. market will take place in Taiwan.

Foxconn shares have risen 8.4% year-to-date, outperforming the broader Taiwan index (.TWII), which gained 5.2%, and closed up 0.5% on Thursday ahead of the earnings release.

China’s SMIC Reports Resilience Despite U.S. Tariffs, Expects Tight Capacity Through October

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China’s leading semiconductor foundry, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), stated on Friday that U.S. tariff measures have not caused the “hard landing” initially feared. The company cited strong domestic demand that will keep its production capacity tight until October.

Co-CEO Zhao Haijun said during a post-earnings call that customers have largely mitigated the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans—such as the proposed 100% tariff on chip imports—through inventory stockpiling and sourcing from alternative suppliers. He noted that previous tariff rounds increased costs by less than 10% for overseas customers.

China’s additional tariffs on U.S. goods reached 125% in April, following Trump’s tariffs effectively pushing the rate on Chinese goods to 145%. However, the latest semiconductor tariffs exclude companies manufacturing in the U.S. or committed to doing so. SMIC, blacklisted by the U.S. in 2020, has no U.S.-based manufacturing.

SMIC’s revenue for Q2 grew 16.2% year-on-year to $2.2 billion, though its profit declined 19.5% to $132.5 million, missing analyst expectations. The company shipped 2.4 million eight-inch equivalent wafers in the quarter, a 4.3% increase from Q1.

Capacity utilization rose to 92.5%, and monthly production capacity expanded modestly by 1.85% quarter-on-quarter to 991,000 wafers. Zhao forecasted continued tight capacity driven by strong domestic demand, especially for analog, WiFi, Ethernet, and memory controller chips.

SMIC expects Q3 revenue growth of 5% to 7% over Q2 but anticipates the industry’s typical seasonal slowdown in Q4, with rush orders and early shipments likely to taper.

SMIC’s shares in Hong Kong dropped over 5% following the report.