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AMD Warns of $1.5 Billion Revenue Hit from U.S. China Chip Export Curbs, But AI Demand Remains Strong

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) warned on Tuesday that new U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports to China will cost the company $1.5 billion in revenue for 2025, as Washington intensifies efforts to limit China’s access to advanced technology. Despite the projected hit, AMD’s second-quarter revenue forecast surpassed Wall Street expectations, buoyed by early chip purchases from customers bracing for trade disruptions.

The Biden and Trump administrations have both ramped up controls on exports of high-performance chips to China, citing national security risks related to AI capabilities. These measures now require chipmakers like AMD and Nvidia to obtain export licenses, effectively slowing or blocking shipments of advanced processors.

CEO Lisa Su said most of the export-related impact will be felt in Q2 and Q3, but expressed confidence in broader business strength. “It’s certainly a headwind, but one which we think is well contained,” Su said, noting that AI chip revenue in AMD’s data center segment is expected to grow by “strong double digits” this year.

China represents about 25% of AMD’s total revenue, and the export curbs are expected to shave nearly 5% off 2025 revenue projections, which currently sit at $31.03 billion, per LSEG data.

In Q1, AMD reported:

  • Total revenue of $7.44 billion, up 36% year-over-year, beating the estimate of $7.25 billion

  • Adjusted earnings of 96 cents per share, 2 cents above consensus

  • Data center revenue surged 57% to $3.7 billion, above the $3.62 billion estimate

For Q2, AMD expects revenue of $7.4 billion ± $300 million, also ahead of forecasts. However, the company is still absorbing an $800 million charge due to April’s newly enacted tariffs.

CFO Jean Hu confirmed the $1.5 billion forecasted revenue loss is tied directly to the latest April export controls. Analysts suggest the current surge in orders reflects “pre-buying behavior” from large cloud clients like Microsoft and Meta, who are stockpiling chips ahead of licensing uncertainty.

“Once those safety-stock closets are full, Q3 could feel like the morning after a Red Bull binge,”
warned Michael Schulman, CIO at Running Point Capital.

Meanwhile, rivals Marvell Technology and Super Micro both disappointed investors, citing economic uncertainty and reduced AI-related optimism. Their shares fell 4.5% and 5%, respectively, in after-hours trading.

AMD’s solid results highlight its growing role in powering AI infrastructure for hyperscalers, even as trade tensions and tariffs loom over the semiconductor industry.

H3C Warns of Nvidia AI Chip Shortage as Chinese Demand Surges

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One of China’s top server manufacturers, H3C, has reportedly warned of a looming shortage of Nvidia’s H20 AI chip—the most advanced processor currently available for sale in China under U.S. export rules. The notice, seen by Reuters, indicates rising concerns about disruptions in the international supply chain and signals possible obstacles for China’s AI development ambitions.

According to the document dated Tuesday, H3C informed clients that existing inventories of the H20 chip are “nearly depleted,” with new shipments only expected around mid-April. The notice blamed geopolitical tensions and raw material disruptions for the uncertainty. It also highlighted challenges in future supply planning beyond April 20 due to changes in shipping routes, production complications, and evolving policy environments.

Shortly after publication, Nvidia declined to comment, and H3C issued a clarification stating that “neither the company nor any of its departments have issued this notice or its related content.” However, industry sources confirmed that the chip is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain.

. AI Boom Driving Surging Demand
Demand for the H20 has sharply risen since January, driven by the popularity of Chinese startup DeepSeek’s cost-efficient AI models. Major Chinese tech giants such as Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance have ramped up orders in response, according to previous reporting by Reuters.

An anonymous distributor told Reuters that despite prior assurances about availability, many buyers were ultimately told the chips had already been sold at higher prices. “We were told the chips would be available, but when it came time to actually purchase them, we were informed they had already been sold at higher prices,” the source said.

. Geopolitical Pressures and U.S. Export Controls
The H20 chip was specifically designed by Nvidia to comply with tightened U.S. export restrictions implemented in October 2023. These rules ban the sale of the company’s most powerful chips—such as the A100 and H100—to China over national security concerns. The U.S. believes advanced AI chips could potentially be used to bolster China’s military capabilities.

Despite these restrictions, Nvidia is believed to have shipped around 1 million units of the H20 to China in 2024, generating over $12 billion in revenue.

Washington is also reportedly considering further limitations on even these lower-tier chips, raising the risk of additional constraints on China’s access to cutting-edge AI technologies.

. China’s Response and Domestic Alternatives
H3C is one of Nvidia’s key OEM partners in China, alongside Inspur, Lenovo, and xFusion—a spinoff from Huawei focused on x86 servers. The looming shortage could accelerate China’s efforts to develop and adopt domestic alternatives such as Huawei’s Ascend chips and Cambricon’s AI processors.

H3C’s internal communication reportedly emphasized a “profit-first” distribution model for upcoming chip deliveries, favoring long-term, high-margin customers. This signals that the chip shortage could hit smaller AI startups and new entrants the hardest, potentially reshaping China’s fast-evolving AI ecosystem.

Singapore Charges Three Men in Connection with Fraud Against Dell and Super Micro

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Singaporean authorities have added additional charges against three men involved in a larger investigation into server fraud, which may involve AI chips. The charges are related to fraudulent activities committed against tech companies Dell and Super Micro. According to court documents, the men allegedly misrepresented the destinations of the servers they purchased, falsely claiming that the servers would not be transferred to unauthorized third parties.

The police charge sheets indicated that the defendants made false representations regarding the ultimate consignee of the items, suggesting that they would not be diverted. Investigations revealed that the servers may contain Nvidia chips, though authorities have not confirmed if these chips are subject to U.S. export controls.

This case is part of an ongoing investigation in Singapore, which involves 22 individuals and companies accused of making false representations. Additionally, the United States is investigating whether DeepSeek, a Chinese company behind a highly publicized AI model, has been using U.S. chips prohibited from being sold to China.

The investigation also covers Malaysia, where the servers allegedly ended up, and authorities there are exploring whether any local laws were violated. Singapore has so far charged two suspects, Aaron Woon, 41, and Alan Wei, 49, with conspiring to defraud Super Micro in 2024. Their charges have been amended to include fraud against Dell. A third suspect, Chinese national Li Ming, 51, was also charged with defrauding Super Micro in 2023.

Authorities seized 42 devices, including phones, computers, and laptops, which are being analyzed by forensic experts. The investigation is still in its early stages, with prosecutors seeking bank statements to trace the movement of funds and planning to work with international law enforcement.