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SpaceX’s $1.75 Trillion Valuation Raises Questions Ahead of IPO

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SpaceX is targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation in its anticipated IPO, a figure that would place it among the most valuable companies globally and ahead of firms like Meta Platforms and Berkshire Hathaway.

Despite the scale, investor demand appears strong. The company could raise more than $75 billion, potentially setting a record for a public offering. Interest has already spilled into secondary markets, where investors are seeking early exposure.

Valuation Drivers

The primary foundation of SpaceX’s valuation is its Starlink business, which has over 10 million users and accounts for a significant share of revenue. The company’s launch division also plays a key role, with its reusable rocket program—particularly the Falcon 9—dramatically reducing launch costs and increasing frequency.

In 2025, SpaceX generated approximately $15–16 billion in revenue and about $8 billion in EBITDA, reflecting strong growth. However, much of the valuation also depends on future projects such as the Starship program and integration with AI ventures like xAI.

Stretching Traditional Metrics

Using aggressive growth assumptions, SpaceX would trade at roughly:

  • 56× price-to-revenue
  • 109× price-to-EBITDA

These multiples significantly exceed even high-growth tech companies such as Tesla and Palantir Technologies, indicating that investors are pricing in substantial future expansion.

Risks and Uncertainty

The valuation depends heavily on continued growth in Starlink and successful execution of unproven initiatives. Delays in the Starship program or slower-than-expected adoption of satellite-based data services could pressure future performance.

Additionally, unlike publicly traded peers, SpaceX lacks transparent consensus forecasts, making valuation comparisons less precise.

Market Context

The company’s dominance in low-Earth orbit satellite deployment and launch frequency gives it a structural advantage. However, competitors such as Amazon are investing heavily in rival satellite networks.

Overall, SpaceX’s valuation reflects not only current performance but also investor confidence in founder Elon Musk and the company’s long-term role in space infrastructure, global connectivity and AI-driven services.

Britain’s Octopus Energy to spin out Kraken at $8.65 billion valuation

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Britain’s Octopus Energy said on Monday it will spin off its technology arm, Kraken, as an independent company valued at $8.65 billion, following a funding round led by U.S. investment firm D1 Capital Partners.

Under the deal, new and existing investors will purchase about $1 billion of equity in Kraken. Investors led by Octopus Capital will also inject an additional $320 million into Octopus Energy. Participants in the funding round include Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, Fidelity International and Durable Capital Partners.

The transaction clears the way for Kraken’s formal demerger from Octopus Energy, which will retain a 13.7% stake in the newly independent company. The Financial Times reported that the separation could pave the way for a Kraken initial public offering within two years, potentially followed by an eventual listing of the privately held Octopus Energy. Reuters could not independently verify the report, and both companies declined to comment on potential listing plans.

Kraken provides AI-powered energy operating software to major utilities worldwide, including EDF, National Grid US and Tokyo Gas. The platform is contracted to serve more than 70 million customer accounts globally and reported contracted annual revenue exceeding $500 million as of September.

In a separate statement, Origin Energy said it will invest about $140 million in Kraken’s fundraising and retain a 22.7% stake in the platform after the transaction. Origin also agreed to waive exclusivity for Kraken’s services in Australia in exchange for an additional 1.5% equity interest.

Netflix Shares Drop 10% as Investors Worry Over Valuation and Growth Outlook

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Netflix shares fell more than 10% on Wednesday after the company’s fourth-quarter forecast failed to impress investors, despite a slate of blockbuster titles including the final season of Stranger Things. The decline reflects growing concern that the streaming giant’s valuation — now trading at nearly 40 times forward earnings — has become unsustainably high.

The company reported third-quarter revenue of $11.5 billion, in line with expectations, and forecast $11.96 billion for the next quarter. However, investors were left uneasy by the lack of subscriber metrics since Netflix stopped reporting them earlier this year. Analysts said the market is looking for stronger signals of growth to justify the company’s lofty market position after a 360% stock surge over the past three years.

Netflix’s advertising and gaming divisions, launched to diversify its income, have yet to become major revenue drivers. Still, the company recorded its strongest ad sales quarter ever, without disclosing figures. A $619 million tax-related charge in Brazil also dragged down profits.

Analysts at Wedbush called Netflix’s outlook “underwhelming,” while Evercore ISI suggested buying the dip, noting rival platforms Disney+ and HBO Max have raised prices — potentially giving Netflix room to do the same.