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Chinese Tech Giants Lobby for Offshore Yuan Stablecoin to Challenge U.S. Dollar Dominance

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Chinese technology leaders JD.com and Ant Group are pressing the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to authorize yuan-pegged stablecoins issued in Hong Kong, aiming to boost the international use of the Chinese currency and counter the growing influence of U.S. dollar-linked stablecoins. This push reflects a strategic effort to expand the yuan’s role in global digital finance and cross-border payments amid increasing competition with the U.S.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to stable assets like fiat currencies. Currently, over 99% of stablecoins are linked to the U.S. dollar, and their blockchain-based technology allows fast, low-cost, and borderless transactions, potentially disrupting traditional financial systems. The global stablecoin market is valued at about $247 billion and is expected to grow to $2 trillion by 2028.

Both JD.com and Ant Group plan to launch stablecoins backed by the Hong Kong dollar following the region’s new legislation effective August 1. However, they argue that yuan-based stablecoins issued offshore—particularly in Hong Kong—are urgently needed to promote the yuan’s internationalization. This would mark a significant policy shift in Beijing’s stance on cryptocurrencies, which were banned domestically in 2021.

Industry voices, such as Wang Yongli of Digital China Information Service Group and former Bank of China official, highlight the strategic risks of the yuan falling behind the dollar in cross-border payments. Currently, the yuan’s share of global payments has dropped to 2.89%, far below the dollar’s dominant 48.46%.

The lobbying coincides with Hong Kong and the U.S. racing to establish regulatory frameworks for stablecoins. Chinese exporters increasingly use dollar-pegged stablecoins like Tether (USDT) due to capital controls and currency volatility risks at home, fueling demand for alternative payment tools.

While the PBOC has yet to officially respond, advisors and officials acknowledge the challenges posed by the digital currency surge and have hinted that offshore yuan stablecoins are under consideration. Ant Group is preparing to seek stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong and Singapore, with JD.com planning similar applications globally to facilitate foreign exchange and cross-border payments.

JD.com also points out that pegging stablecoins to the Hong Kong dollar—tied to the U.S. dollar—does little to promote the yuan’s use, thus proposing a yuan stablecoin issuance pilot first in Hong Kong, then expanded to China’s free trade zones, a suggestion reportedly well received by regulators.

U.S. Inflation Edges Up, But Investors Find Reasons to Be Thankful

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Inflation Data and Market Reactions

U.S. inflation in October showed a modest uptick, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year, as reported by the U.S. Commerce Department. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with an annual reading of 2.8%, slightly higher than the previous month’s 2.7%. These figures were in line with analysts’ expectations, and they had little impact on investor sentiment.

Despite the inflation data, U.S. stock markets saw a pause in their recent rally. The S&P 500 ended its seven-day winning streak, falling by 0.38%. Bond prices rose as Treasury yields slipped. On the global front, Asia-Pacific stocks saw a mixed performance, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbing to a record high, while South Korea’s Kospi index remained flat after an unexpected rate cut by its central bank.

South Korea’s Unexpected Rate Cut

On Thursday, the Bank of Korea (BOK) reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, surprising economists who had expected no change. This decision came after South Korea reported disappointing third-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1%. The BOK also lowered its 2024 growth outlook to 2.2%, down from 2.4%. The rate cut is seen as a response to slow economic activity and the need for stimulus.

Yuan Pressure Amid Tariff Threats

China’s offshore yuan is facing downward pressure, with forecasts predicting it could weaken to an average of 7.51 per U.S. dollar by the end of 2025, marking its lowest level on record. This decline is largely attributed to concerns over U.S. tariff threats and lower interest rates in China. As tensions rise between the U.S. and China, the yuan is expected to face further challenges, adding to the uncertainty in the global markets.

U.S. Tariffs: Potential Winners and Losers

While U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans raise concerns for investors and companies, some sectors could stand to benefit. The proposed tariffs could be advantageous for technology firms that specialize in optimizing supply chains. These companies could gain from the increased demand for their services as businesses seek to adjust to the higher costs imposed by tariffs.

Investor Sentiment Ahead of Thanksgiving

Ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, U.S. investors kept their trading light, with trading volume in the SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (ETF) falling by 22.6% below its 30-day average. Despite the S&P 500’s dip and the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 0.31% slide, there were no signs of a panic sell-off. Instead, traders appeared to be taking profits from Big Tech stocks, causing the Nasdaq Composite to drop 0.6%.

Inflation’s modest increase didn’t rattle investors either. In fact, many seem confident that the U.S. Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming December meeting. Market expectations for this rate cut have risen to 68.2%, up from 55.7% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

A Bright Market Outlook

Despite some market fluctuations, the overall sentiment remains positive. Chris Verrone from Strategas noted that over three-quarters of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day moving average, indicating a steady upward trend and a healthy market. With the economy nearing full employment and inflationary pressures easing, many analysts believe that the market is still in a solid position, providing investors with plenty to be thankful for this Thanksgiving.