Fed Unlikely to Cut Rates Before September Despite Market Turmoil

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Recent turmoil in global stock markets, triggered by a sharp slowdown in the U.S. job market, has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates before its next scheduled meeting in September. However, despite the market volatility, the odds of an emergency rate cut remain low. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized that the Fed’s mandate focuses on employment and price stability, not the stock market.

While some analysts anticipate a half-percentage-point rate cut at the September meeting, few believe the Fed will act sooner. Kathy Bostjancic, an economist at Nationwide, warned that an emergency cut could cause more panic in the markets. Even former New York Fed President Bill Dudley, who recently advocated for rate cuts, acknowledged that an intermeeting cut is “very unlikely.”

Global stock markets have somewhat recovered after initial losses, and recent data showing a drop in U.S. jobless claims has further eased concerns. As a result, traders have scaled back expectations for an immediate Fed rate cut, now seeing even odds between a quarter-point and half-point reduction in September.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to provide more guidance at the upcoming Jackson Hole economic symposium. For now, Powell seems likely to maintain the current policy rate, sticking to his statement that any potential rate reduction will depend on forthcoming economic data, particularly regarding jobs, inflation, and consumer spending.

Historically, the Fed has only cut rates between meetings in response to severe market disruptions, such as during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, current conditions do not appear to meet that threshold, making a preemptive rate cut before September unlikely.

 

U.S. Jobless Claims Drop, Easing Recession Fears

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The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped more than expected last week, calming fears of a rapidly deteriorating labor market and reinforcing a narrative of gradual economic softening. The Labor Department reported a decrease of 17,000 claims, bringing the total to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ending August 3rd, marking the largest decline in 11 months. Economists had anticipated 240,000 claims, making the actual figure a welcome surprise after last week’s sharp increase.

This decline is likely influenced by the waning impact of temporary motor vehicle plant shutdowns and Hurricane Beryl, which had previously inflated the jobless claims figures. The revised figure for the prior week was adjusted slightly upward to 250,000.

The positive data bolstered U.S. stock markets, with major indexes rising and benchmark Treasury yields climbing back above 4%. The U.S. dollar also strengthened against a basket of currencies, reflecting renewed investor confidence. Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, remarked that concerns of an imminent recession now seem “wide of the mark.”

Investors reacted by reducing bets that the Federal Reserve would implement a significant 50-basis-point rate cut next month, with the probability falling to 58% from 70% prior to the report. Despite a recent upward trend in claims since June, partly due to auto plant retooling and weather disruptions, layoffs remain low. This suggests that the labor market is stabilizing, albeit at a slower pace, as the economy adjusts to the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2022 and 2023.

The Fed, which left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its last meeting, is closely monitoring the labor market for signs of stress. While the recent nonfarm payrolls report indicated a slowdown in job gains and a rise in unemployment to 4.3%, the overall labor force growth has kept pace with the gradual rise in jobless claims, maintaining stability.

In other economic news, U.S. wholesale inventories increased in June, contributing positively to economic growth in the second quarter. The Commerce Department reported a 0.2% rise in inventories, in line with expectations, and a continuation of growth after a similar increase in May. This, coupled with a slight decrease in the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate to 6.47%, provided further relief in the housing market, which has been struggling under high interest rates.

 

Wall Street Rallies as Jobs Data Eases Economic Slowdown Fears

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Wall Street’s major indexes surged nearly 2% on Thursday, fueled by a stronger-than-expected jobs report that alleviated concerns about a looming economic slowdown. The data revealed a sharper-than-anticipated drop in new unemployment benefit applications last week, dispelling fears that the labor market was unraveling.

This positive shift in sentiment helped stabilize megacap and growth stocks, which had been in free fall following a disappointing July jobs report that had sparked recession concerns. Nvidia led the gains with a 4.4% surge. According to Skyler Weinand, Chief Investment Officer at Regan Capital, “Just because the labor market is cooling off doesn’t mean we’re entering into a recession.”

All major S&P sectors saw gains, with information technology and communication services leading the charge. Global markets also began to recover from the earlier week’s volatility, triggered by concerns over interest rate hikes and weak demand in the U.S. Treasury market.

J.P. Morgan raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession by the end of the year to 35%, up from 25%, citing reduced pressure in the labor market.

By late morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen 589.53 points (1.52%) to 39,352.98, the S&P 500 gained 99.37 points (1.91%) to 5,298.87, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 360.42 points (2.23%) to 16,556.23.

On the earnings front, Eli Lilly jumped 7.9% after raising its annual profit forecast, driven by the success of its weight-loss drug Zepbound, which surpassed $1 billion in quarterly sales. Under Armour surged 19.2% following a surprising first-quarter profit. Conversely, Bumble saw its shares plummet 32.6% after slashing its annual revenue growth forecast, while Warner Bros Discovery and Monster Beverage also faced significant declines.

Investors are now looking ahead to comments from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin for insights into the Federal Reserve’s next moves.