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AI Investment Gains Supercharge S&P 500 Second-Quarter Earnings

The S&P 500 is closing out an unusually strong second-quarter earnings season, with artificial intelligence investments providing a major boost to corporate profits.

Aggregate earnings for the index are on track to rise about 52% year over year, while technology sector profits are expected to jump roughly 74%. A significant part of that increase comes from large unrealized gains recorded by companies such as Alphabet and Amazon on their investments in fast-growing AI businesses including Anthropic.

Without those mark-to-market gains, S&P 500 earnings growth would be closer to 33%, according to LSEG. That would still represent the strongest quarterly performance since 2021, but the difference highlights how AI-related asset valuations are increasingly influencing reported corporate profits.

Amazon recorded approximately $53.4 billion in pre-tax non-operating income, largely tied to its Anthropic investments, while Alphabet reported a $77.1 billion unrealized gain on equity securities.

The broader AI infrastructure boom is also supporting earnings. Goldman Sachs estimates AI infrastructure companies accounted for roughly one-third of S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth during the quarter.

However, investors are becoming more cautious about elevated AI valuations and the enormous financing commitments required to build new data centers and computing capacity. Analysts warn that mark-to-market gains can reverse quickly if private or public AI valuations decline.

Even beyond technology, corporate earnings remain strong, with seven of the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors expected to post double-digit profit growth.