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ASML to Halt Reporting of Key Metric, Citing Volatility

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ASML, the world’s leading chip equipment manufacturer, has announced it will stop publishing new order bookings, a key metric closely watched by investors. The company argues that the figure is too inconsistent and causes excessive volatility in its stock price.

Instead, ASML believes its own forecasts—based on discussions with chipmakers about their capacity expansion plans—offer a more reliable indicator of future performance. The company’s circuit-printing machinery plays a critical role in chip manufacturing, but orders can take six to 18 months to fulfill, making quarterly booking figures difficult to interpret.

“The swing factor is significant,” said Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen, explaining the move.

The decision, announced on Wednesday, came as ASML’s stock jumped 7% following better-than-expected fourth-quarter bookings of €7.1 billion ($7.4 billion), a sharp increase from the €2.6 billion recorded in Q3. The fluctuation was likely driven by timing of orders from TSMC, which recently unveiled a $38 billion capital expenditure plan for 2025.

While analysts acknowledge the downside of losing insight into short-term order trends, they largely understand ASML’s reasoning.

“There is downside for investors, as we lose visibility on average bookings and backlog confidence,” said Sara Russo of Bernstein. However, she agreed that a single quarter’s bookings are not the best measure of long-term business health.

Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam added that capital expenditure announcements from major clients such as TSMC, Intel, and Samsung already provide sufficient indicators of future demand.

Despite market fluctuations, Dassen emphasized that ASML’s full-year sales and margins remained aligned with its January 2024 forecasts.

“If you put all those quarters together, you see it wasn’t too shabby, was it?” he remarked.

 

Chip Stocks Mixed Amid DeepSeek Shock, Earnings in Focus

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Semiconductor stocks experienced a mixed performance on Wednesday, with European chip stocks surging due to strong earnings, while U.S. stocks, including Nvidia, faced continued pressure as investors weighed the potential impact of China’s low-cost DeepSeek AI tool.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index struggled to find direction, down 0.4% by mid-day, and the broader S&P 500 tech index fell 1.9%, primarily due to a significant drop in Nvidia’s shares, which were down more than 6%. Nvidia had seen an 8.9% increase on Tuesday after suffering a 17% drop on Monday, marking a record one-day loss in market value. The decline came after DeepSeek, a Chinese startup, unveiled its free AI assistant, which quickly overtook OpenAI’s ChatGPT in downloads on Apple’s App Store, signaling that China may be catching up in the AI race.

Investors are still trying to assess the implications of DeepSeek’s emergence and its ability to challenge established players in the AI market. Jack Ablin, CIO at Cresset Capital, pointed out that the market is in a “middle ground,” with some investors taking DeepSeek seriously and others brushing it off as a temporary disturbance. He added that investors are struggling to determine whether the news is fundamentally negative for high-priced stocks like Nvidia, or if the AI industry will continue its upward trajectory despite the challenge.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s ongoing policy meeting and earnings results from major tech companies are also in focus. Quarterly results from Microsoft and Meta, set to be released later Wednesday, will be scrutinized for insights into their AI investment plans.

Jefferies Chief Economist Mohit Kumar noted that while chipmakers and energy sectors may continue facing pressure, other sectors could rebound from Monday’s sell-off and gain momentum. However, the current high valuations of certain tech companies will require strong earnings results to justify their prices.

Despite the buzz around DeepSeek, some experts remain skeptical of the startup’s long-term success, especially due to the lack of information about its spending budget. Additionally, OpenAI and Microsoft are investigating whether DeepSeek improperly used data from ChatGPT in its technology.

In Europe, tech stocks saw a strong rally, boosted by ASML’s nearly 5.6% gain following its report of unexpectedly strong bookings. The European tech index finished up 2.4%, with BE Semiconductor and ASM International also seeing significant gains.

In contrast, U.S. semiconductor stocks were mixed. While Nvidia, Cirrus Logic, ARM Holdings, and Broadcom all saw losses, Coherent Corp and Advanced Micro Devices posted gains, rising by 3.6% and 2.6%, respectively. ASML’s U.S. shares also saw a strong 4.4% increase.

 

ASML CEO Discusses Positive Impact of DeepSeek AI Launch on Chip Demand

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Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML, shared his perspective on the growing influence of AI technologies, such as China’s DeepSeek, on the global chip market. He emphasized that efficient AI models are ultimately a positive force for the semiconductor industry, countering the perception that AI spending is primarily driven by large-scale investments from tech giants like Google, Meta, and Microsoft. These companies are pouring billions into building advanced data centers, but according to Fouquet, the actual demand for chips driven by this sector remains relatively small.

Fouquet argued that the broader chip demand will come from the integration of AI into various consumer and industrial applications. He highlighted examples, such as AI-enabled phones, cars, and robotics, noting that for these products to reach mass adoption, the cost of the chips must be affordable. If the cost of chips remains high, only a small number of expensive units would be sold, limiting widespread access to AI technology.

When discussing the recent launch of DeepSeek’s AI product, which had a significant impact on tech stock prices, Fouquet remained optimistic, stating that anything that helps drive down costs is beneficial for ASML in the long run. While the potential of DeepSeek’s technology remains uncertain, he believes that cost reduction is key to enabling AI to be more accessible to a wider audience.

Analyst Sara Russo from Bernstein agreed with Fouquet’s viewpoint but noted that the effects of DeepSeek’s launch are still unfolding. She pointed out that ASML’s role as a supplier will depend on how AI applications evolve and influence chip demand, as well as the needs of chip manufacturers.