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ASML Tops $500 Billion Market Value on TSMC Spending Boost

Shares of ASML pushed the company’s market capitalisation past $500 billion for the first time on Thursday, after key customer TSMC announced a much larger-than-expected increase in capital spending to meet surging demand for AI chips.

TSMC said it plans to spend between $52 billion and $56 billion in 2026, well above analysts’ expectations of about $46 billion. The higher budget implies significantly more spending on advanced chipmaking tools, benefiting ASML, the world’s only supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines.

ASML shares rose 5.4% by mid-day trading, extending their January gains to around 24% and cementing the company’s position as Europe’s most valuable listed firm. Analysts say ASML stands out as a major winner from the AI investment cycle, alongside memory chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

TSMC’s stepped-up investment also reflects strong demand from clients including Nvidia and Apple. While ASML has forecast only modest growth for 2026 due to the slow pace of new fab construction, analysts say TSMC’s plans improve visibility for stronger growth into 2027 and beyond.

Investors weigh risks that could derail Wall Street’s AI-driven rally

Artificial intelligence has fueled a powerful stock market rally since 2022, but investors are increasingly alert to the potential risks that could threaten the “AI trade” underpinning record market highs. Citigroup estimates nearly half of the S&P 500’s $57 trillion market capitalization now has “high” or “medium” exposure to AI, making the technology a defining force on Wall Street.

The S&P 500 is up 13% this year, while the Nasdaq Composite has gained 17%, driven largely by tech and AI-linked companies. Yet analysts warn that the sector’s strength also makes it vulnerable to shocks. Concerns have surfaced before — from China’s launch of the low-cost AI model Deepseek to fears about runaway spending on data centers — though markets have repeatedly rebounded.

“There’s a lot of growth priced in,” said Steve Lowe of Thrivent Financial. “That’s the concern — whether the expectations can really hold up.”

Massive capital spending remains a central focus. Barclays projects that annual AI-related infrastructure investment by major “hyperscalers” — including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle — will double to $500 billion by 2027. While these companies generate vast cash reserves, analysts caution that overspending could pressure margins or lead to greater leverage.

Others highlight systemic risks from the close financial ties within the AI ecosystem, such as Nvidia’s recent $100 billion commitment to OpenAI. Energy infrastructure is another growing concern, with power supply seen as a potential bottleneck for new data centers.

Some investors remain bullish over the next 12 to 18 months, but warn that any slowdown in AI spending or signs that investments aren’t yielding expected returns could shake market confidence. “If it starts to look like the payoff isn’t coming,” said Patrick Ryan of Madison Investments, “that could be what finally trips the trade.”

Foxconn Sees AI Driving Growth as Q2 Profit Exceeds Forecast

Foxconn (2317.TW), the world’s largest iPhone assembler, reported second-quarter net profit of T$44.4 billion ($1.48 billion), surpassing the consensus estimate of T$38.8 billion, as strong demand for AI servers helped offset slower growth in smart electronics. The company on Thursday forecast a significant rise in third-quarter revenue, with AI server sales expected to jump more than 170% year-on-year.

Cloud and networking products, including servers, accounted for 41% of Q2 revenue, while smart consumer electronics contributed 35%. CEO Kathy Yang said, “AI has been the primary growth driver so far this year,” but cautioned that “close attention is needed due to the impact of changes in tariffs and exchange rates.”

Foxconn is increasing capital spending by more than 20% in 2025 to expand server production capacity at its facilities in Texas and Wisconsin. The company’s AI business benefits from rising demand as cloud computing giants such as Amazon (AMZN.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), and Google (GOOGL.O) expand AI infrastructure.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains a risk, particularly from U.S.-China trade tensions, although a 90-day tariff truce has been extended. While most iPhones for Apple (AAPL.O) are assembled in China, production for the U.S. market has shifted mainly to India. Foxconn is also building factories in Mexico and Texas to manufacture AI servers for Nvidia (NVDA.O).

In its electric vehicle (EV) operations, Foxconn sold its former Lordstown, Ohio, factory for $375 million but will continue to occupy the site to produce cloud-related products. Initial production of its Model C EV for the U.S. market will take place in Taiwan.

Foxconn shares have risen 8.4% year-to-date, outperforming the broader Taiwan index (.TWII), which gained 5.2%, and closed up 0.5% on Thursday ahead of the earnings release.