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ASML Reports Export Curbs Impacted Customer Spending in 2024

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ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer, stated in its annual report that uncertainties surrounding export controls weakened customer demand in 2024. The company, which has faced multiple waves of U.S.-led restrictions on exports to China, cited concerns over technological sovereignty and geopolitical factors affecting capital expenditures.

Major clients, including TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, SMIC, and Intel, have exercised caution in their spending due to these uncertainties. China, which accounted for 36% of ASML’s sales in 2024, is expected to see its share decline to around 20% in 2025 as more entities face restrictions.

Despite these challenges, ASML reaffirmed its sales forecast of €30-35 billion for 2025, up from €28.3 billion in 2024, driven by strong demand for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, essential for advanced chip manufacturing.

In a move to strengthen its global strategy, ASML announced the appointment of former Dutch Social Affairs Minister Karien van Gennip to its supervisory board. The company has also brought on political figures such as former French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and ex-Deputy Economy Minister Frank Heemskerk to enhance its international positioning.

ASML to Halt Reporting of Key Metric, Citing Volatility

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ASML, the world’s leading chip equipment manufacturer, has announced it will stop publishing new order bookings, a key metric closely watched by investors. The company argues that the figure is too inconsistent and causes excessive volatility in its stock price.

Instead, ASML believes its own forecasts—based on discussions with chipmakers about their capacity expansion plans—offer a more reliable indicator of future performance. The company’s circuit-printing machinery plays a critical role in chip manufacturing, but orders can take six to 18 months to fulfill, making quarterly booking figures difficult to interpret.

“The swing factor is significant,” said Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen, explaining the move.

The decision, announced on Wednesday, came as ASML’s stock jumped 7% following better-than-expected fourth-quarter bookings of €7.1 billion ($7.4 billion), a sharp increase from the €2.6 billion recorded in Q3. The fluctuation was likely driven by timing of orders from TSMC, which recently unveiled a $38 billion capital expenditure plan for 2025.

While analysts acknowledge the downside of losing insight into short-term order trends, they largely understand ASML’s reasoning.

“There is downside for investors, as we lose visibility on average bookings and backlog confidence,” said Sara Russo of Bernstein. However, she agreed that a single quarter’s bookings are not the best measure of long-term business health.

Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam added that capital expenditure announcements from major clients such as TSMC, Intel, and Samsung already provide sufficient indicators of future demand.

Despite market fluctuations, Dassen emphasized that ASML’s full-year sales and margins remained aligned with its January 2024 forecasts.

“If you put all those quarters together, you see it wasn’t too shabby, was it?” he remarked.

 

Intel Faces Investor Scrutiny Amid CEO Search and Declining Revenue

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Key Highlights:

  • Intel is under intense investor scrutiny as it prepares to report its quarterly results, expected to show a 10.4% drop in revenue, primarily due to weak PC sales and shrinking market share in the datacenter sector.
  • The chipmaker recently ousted CEO Pat Gelsinger and appointed two interim co-CEOs, Michelle Johnston Holthaus and David Zinsner, raising questions about its future strategy, especially regarding its contract chip manufacturing business.
  • Intel plans to make its foundry business an independent unit and may consider spinning it off if its 18A chipmaking technology doesn’t succeed.
  • Intel’s market cap is currently around $85 billion, but analysts suggest it should be valued closer to $120 billion, highlighting concerns over its manufacturing lead and lack of progress in the AI boom, dominated by rivals like Nvidia.

Financial Outlook and Challenges:

  • Revenue is projected to fall 10.4% to $13.81 billion in Intel’s fourth-quarter earnings, with a 9 percentage point drop in gross margin to 39.4%.
  • Datacenter revenue, which includes Intel’s server chips, is forecast to decline by more than 15% for the 11th consecutive quarter. This is largely due to the shift by major cloud providers, such as Microsoft, toward AI chips and away from Intel’s traditional server processors.
  • Intel’s personal computer revenue, its largest segment, is expected to fall by 11% as PC sales remain subdued. Rival AMD continues to gain market share, especially in the x86 CPU market.
  • The company is also facing margin pressures, with its Gaudi AI chips, a lower-cost alternative to Nvidia’s expensive processors, failing to meet sales targets.

Strategic Challenges:

  • Intel has been grappling with the high costs of catching up with TSMC in chip manufacturing and is struggling to regain its lead in both the server and personal computer markets.
  • Despite these challenges, analysts note that Intel’s strategic importance to U.S. chip manufacturing remains high, with government support likely to continue.
  • The company’s focus on returning to growth has sparked discussions about the need for a new CEO to lead its recovery efforts and revitalize its position in the semiconductor industry.