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Deliveroo Delays Margin Growth Goal Amid Slow Consumer Recovery

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Deliveroo has postponed its margin growth target after a slower-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence, causing a drop in shares that erased the gains made over the past year. Despite reporting its first statutory profit and positive cash flow, the meal delivery company revised its forecast for margin expansion.

For the year, Deliveroo posted a profit of £2.9 million ($3.8 million), a turnaround from a loss of £31.8 million in 2023. Its core earnings reached the top end of guidance, amounting to £129.6 million. However, CEO Will Shu admitted that the consumer environment had not recovered as quickly as expected. In 2023, Shu had set a target to achieve a 4% core earnings margin by 2026, with the possibility of further upside. But now, Deliveroo expects margin growth to pick up starting in 2026, with the 4% target set for the medium term.

“The consumer market since our capital markets event hasn’t been the smoothest,” Shu noted, reflecting the ongoing challenges. As a result, shares in Deliveroo fell 9%, wiping out the gains made over the past year. Jefferies analysts called the new timeline a “blemish,” though they pointed out that the consensus forecast had already been lagging behind the original timeline.

Despite the setback in margin growth, Deliveroo saw growth in gross transaction value (GTV), a key performance metric, which picked up in the second half of 2024. Order growth in the UK and Ireland, Deliveroo’s largest market, also accelerated each quarter. For Q1 2025, Shu expressed confidence, stating that trading had been strong, with no significant changes compared to the latter half of 2024.

To continue growing, Deliveroo will focus on value, its tiered membership programs, and other operational efficiencies. The company also announced its exit from Hong Kong, selling some of its assets to Delivery Hero’s foodpanda after nine years of operations in the region. Shu explained that Hong Kong’s market was particularly price-sensitive, which influenced the decision to exit. This departure will leave Deliveroo operating in seven international markets, in addition to its presence in Britain and Ireland.

China Retail Sales Surpass October Forecasts Despite Deepening Real Estate Slump

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China posted stronger-than-expected growth in retail sales for October, signaling early success from its recent stimulus measures, even as its real estate sector continued to struggle.

Economic Indicators at a Glance

  • Retail Sales: Up 4.8% year-on-year, surpassing the 3.8% forecast and improving from 3.2% in September.
  • Industrial Production: Increased by 5.3% annually, slightly below the expected 5.6%.
  • Fixed Asset Investment: Rose 3.4% year-to-date, missing the 3.5% estimate.
  • Real Estate Investment: Plummeted 10.3% year-to-date, marking the sharpest drop since August 2021’s 10.9% decline.
  • Unemployment Rate: Dropped to 5%, an improvement from 5.1% in September, with youth unemployment also showing signs of recovery.

Stimulus Impact and Sectoral Insights

  1. Retail Recovery:
    • October’s retail sales highlight improved consumer sentiment, bolstered by October’s Singles’ Day shopping festival. Analysts noted robust growth in sectors like e-commerce and consumer electronics.
  2. Real Estate Woes:
    • The property sector’s decline deepened, with new property sales showing narrower declines but remaining weak.
    • Authorities reiterated commitments to stabilize the sector, projecting recovery within 12–18 months.
  3. Manufacturing and Infrastructure:
    • Investments in manufacturing and infrastructure picked up slightly, reflecting a shift toward targeted economic support for foundational sectors.

Policy Landscape

China’s government has rolled out aggressive stimulus measures since September to address its economic challenges:

  • Monetary Policy: Interest rate cuts by the central bank and extended real estate support.
  • Fiscal Measures: A five-year, 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to alleviate local government debt, with hints of further support in 2024.
  • Consumer Incentives: Limited direct measures, but trade-in programs for cars and home appliances have helped bolster sales.

The National Bureau of Statistics emphasized the need for intensified policy implementation to meet the country’s annual growth target of around 5%.

Broader Trends and Challenges

  • Exports Surge, Imports Lag: October saw the fastest export growth in over a year, while imports remained subdued, reflecting weak domestic demand.
  • Inflation: The core consumer price index rose 0.2% year-on-year, slightly better than September’s 0.1%.
  • Golden Week Insights: Spending trends during the holiday remained cautious, though better-than-expected Singles’ Day sales hint at potential resilience in consumer activity.

Economic Outlook

China’s gross domestic product grew by 4.8% in the first three quarters, and authorities remain focused on achieving the 5% growth target for the year. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with signs of stabilization in certain sectors tempered by persistent domestic and international headwinds.

 

U.S. Elections in Spotlight as Polls Open

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What You Need to Know Today

U.S. Markets Mostly Gain After Elections
Historically, U.S. stock markets have generally experienced gains following presidential elections, despite some potential short-term volatility. According to data, the three major U.S. indices have consistently recorded average gains between Election Day and year-end since 1980.

Markets Slip Ahead of Election Day
On Monday, stock markets declined as investors braced for the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.61%, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.28%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.33%, closing at 18,179.98. In the Asia-Pacific region, markets exhibited mixed performances on Tuesday, with China’s CSI 300 index leading gains, rising by 2.28%.

China Reviews Plan to Raise Local Government Debt
China’s parliament standing committee reviewed a proposal on Monday to increase the local government debt limit, according to state media reports. Local authorities in China have historically managed significant public service spending but are facing challenges due to declining revenue from land sales to developers.

Poor China Takings Weigh on U.S. Firms
Weak revenue from China has negatively impacted the earnings of several U.S. companies, primarily due to low consumer confidence and rising competition from domestic brands. Among those affected are Apple, Starbucks, Nike, and LVMH, though some companies, such as Tesla and athleisure brands Adidas and Lululemon, have shown more resilience.

[PRO] Investors Bullish on Equities
Despite the heightened volatility in the market surrounding the U.S. presidential election, consumer confidence in equities has reached an all-time high, according to the latest Consumer Confidence survey from The Conference Board.

The Bottom Line
As America prepares to chart its course for the next four years in the presidential election, the global community is closely watching the proceedings. Candidates from both the Republican and Democratic parties have spent months campaigning across the nation. Polls in the Eastern states are set to open for Election Day shortly.

The contrasting views of the candidates regarding the future of America are likely to inject uncertainty into the markets. However, historical trends indicate that stocks typically rise after elections, regardless of the outcome. Analysis shows that the three major U.S. indices have experienced gains between Election Day and the end of the year in every presidential election year since 1980.

Nonetheless, investors hoping for immediate gains on Wednesday might be disappointed. The three indices have seen declines in the session and the week following Election Day in the past, though they typically recover within a month.

Lines from Frank Sinatra’s song “My Way” resonate with investors who are prepared to endure market uncertainty following the election:
“The record shows I took the blows
And did it my way.”