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DeepSeek’s Global Success Sparkles with National Pride in China

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Chinese bloggers, state media, and citizens are celebrating the rapid success of DeepSeek, the homegrown AI startup, viewing its rise as a symbol of China’s resilience against Western efforts to constrain its tech industry. Last week, DeepSeek launched a free AI assistant that claims to use less data at a fraction of the cost of competing services. By Monday, it had surpassed U.S. rival ChatGPT in downloads on Apple’s App Store, prompting a significant selloff in tech shares globally.

DeepSeek’s ability to rival the capabilities of OpenAI while offering a more affordable alternative has raised concerns about the sustainability of profit margins and business models of U.S. AI giants such as Nvidia and Microsoft. In China, the startup’s success has been seen as a victory against U.S. efforts to block access to advanced semiconductors, which are critical for AI development.

“This symbolizes that U.S. containment, persecution, and sanctions in advanced technology against China have completely failed,” wrote military commentator Chen Xi on his WeChat account. This sentiment aligns with statements from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested that DeepSeek’s achievements should spur American firms to innovate and that it was beneficial for Chinese companies to introduce cheaper, faster AI technology.

In Zhejiang, where DeepSeek is based, the provincial government’s media office published a widely shared essay celebrating the company’s success. The article, read more than 100,000 times, declared, “The moon overseas is not actually more round. Whatever others can do, we can also do—and even do it better.” The essay pushed back against both overly optimistic and overly pessimistic views of China’s technological progress.

This wave of pride surrounding DeepSeek mirrors the response to Huawei’s surprise launch of the Mate 60 Pro smartphone in 2023, which came despite U.S. sanctions. At that time, the state-backed Global Times praised Huawei’s ability to produce high-end smartphones, arguing that the U.S. crackdown had failed.

The reaction from the Chinese public has been equally supportive. Chen Jianuo, a 38-year-old Beijing resident, expressed pride over DeepSeek’s international success, reflecting on the positive global attention the company has garnered. “China has made great progress in AI development, and I hope our technological growth continues,” she shared.

Leo Li, a 24-year-old student, also voiced his pride, saying, “It’s exciting that a Chinese company is on par with Meta and OpenAI. As a Chinese citizen, it feels great to see our AI research becoming a global sensation.”

 

IBM Surpasses Profit Estimates in Q4 as AI and Software Drive Growth

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IBM (IBM.N) exceeded fourth-quarter profit forecasts on Wednesday, bolstered by strong demand in its software division as businesses increased IT spending. This growth, driven by a shift toward cloud infrastructure and the adoption of generative artificial intelligence technology, sent IBM’s shares soaring by approximately 10% in after-hours trading.

The company’s software segment saw its largest revenue increase in five years, benefiting from the heightened focus on AI-driven cloud solutions. Analyst Matt Swanson of RBC Capital Markets noted that increased software growth is associated with higher profit margins.

IBM also raised its outlook for fiscal 2025, forecasting revenue growth of at least 5% at constant currency, compared to 3% growth in 2024. This projection indicates confidence in IBM’s AI and cloud strategy, according to Michael Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital.

IBM’s “AI Book of Business” — a combination of bookings and actual sales across various AI products — reached over $5 billion, a $2 billion increase from the third quarter. The company made its “Granite” AI models open-source in May, positioning itself differently from competitors like Microsoft (MSFT.O), which charge for access to their AI models. This approach mirrors the strategy of DeepSeek, a Chinese startup that launched a free AI assistant, raising concerns over U.S. tech dominance.

Despite this, IBM’s Chief Financial Officer, James Kavanaugh, did not provide details on whether IBM intends to offer DeepSeek’s models on its Watsonx platform, which helps users deploy chatbots and other AI tools.

On the downside, IBM’s consulting division, which dominates its AI business, experienced a 2% decline in revenue, totaling $5.2 billion for the quarter. The focus on long-term AI integration consulting projects has yet to reflect in revenue figures. Overall, IBM’s total revenue remained flat at $17.55 billion for the quarter, aligning with analyst expectations. The company reported adjusted per-share earnings of $3.92, surpassing the forecast of $3.75.

 

Chip Stocks Mixed Amid DeepSeek Shock, Earnings in Focus

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Semiconductor stocks experienced a mixed performance on Wednesday, with European chip stocks surging due to strong earnings, while U.S. stocks, including Nvidia, faced continued pressure as investors weighed the potential impact of China’s low-cost DeepSeek AI tool.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index struggled to find direction, down 0.4% by mid-day, and the broader S&P 500 tech index fell 1.9%, primarily due to a significant drop in Nvidia’s shares, which were down more than 6%. Nvidia had seen an 8.9% increase on Tuesday after suffering a 17% drop on Monday, marking a record one-day loss in market value. The decline came after DeepSeek, a Chinese startup, unveiled its free AI assistant, which quickly overtook OpenAI’s ChatGPT in downloads on Apple’s App Store, signaling that China may be catching up in the AI race.

Investors are still trying to assess the implications of DeepSeek’s emergence and its ability to challenge established players in the AI market. Jack Ablin, CIO at Cresset Capital, pointed out that the market is in a “middle ground,” with some investors taking DeepSeek seriously and others brushing it off as a temporary disturbance. He added that investors are struggling to determine whether the news is fundamentally negative for high-priced stocks like Nvidia, or if the AI industry will continue its upward trajectory despite the challenge.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s ongoing policy meeting and earnings results from major tech companies are also in focus. Quarterly results from Microsoft and Meta, set to be released later Wednesday, will be scrutinized for insights into their AI investment plans.

Jefferies Chief Economist Mohit Kumar noted that while chipmakers and energy sectors may continue facing pressure, other sectors could rebound from Monday’s sell-off and gain momentum. However, the current high valuations of certain tech companies will require strong earnings results to justify their prices.

Despite the buzz around DeepSeek, some experts remain skeptical of the startup’s long-term success, especially due to the lack of information about its spending budget. Additionally, OpenAI and Microsoft are investigating whether DeepSeek improperly used data from ChatGPT in its technology.

In Europe, tech stocks saw a strong rally, boosted by ASML’s nearly 5.6% gain following its report of unexpectedly strong bookings. The European tech index finished up 2.4%, with BE Semiconductor and ASM International also seeing significant gains.

In contrast, U.S. semiconductor stocks were mixed. While Nvidia, Cirrus Logic, ARM Holdings, and Broadcom all saw losses, Coherent Corp and Advanced Micro Devices posted gains, rising by 3.6% and 2.6%, respectively. ASML’s U.S. shares also saw a strong 4.4% increase.