Are Immigrants Really Taking Jobs from U.S.-Born Workers? Here’s What Economists Say
The notion that immigrants are taking jobs from U.S.-born workers is a frequent talking point, especially on the presidential campaign trail. Former President Donald Trump, in particular, has often claimed that immigrants are taking jobs away from Americans. For instance, during a speech in Wilmington, North Carolina, he declared, “They’re taking your jobs.”
For many Republican voters, immigration is a key issue—second only to the economy in importance. According to a recent Pew Research Center survey, 82% of Trump supporters say immigration is a significant factor in their 2024 voting decisions. In contrast, immigration ranks as the lowest-priority issue for Democrats.
However, economists who study the U.S. labor market generally agree that immigrants don’t significantly reduce job opportunities or wages for native-born workers. According to Alexander Arnon, director of business tax and economic analysis at the Penn Wharton Budget Model, “The consensus is very strong that there are not significant costs to U.S.-born workers from immigration, at least the type of immigration we have historically had in the U.S.”
Why Immigrants Benefit the Economy Economists point out several reasons why immigrants often help rather than harm the economy. First, the labor market is dynamic, not fixed. Immigrants not only take jobs, but they also create new ones by spending within local economies and starting businesses. A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that immigrants are 80% more likely to become entrepreneurs compared to native-born workers. Additionally, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that a recent surge of immigrants will contribute $8.9 trillion to the U.S. GDP over the next decade.
As Michael Clemens, an economist at George Mason University, puts it, “That’s enormous. It creates jobs, raises pay, and increases the complexity of the U.S. economy.”
Moreover, immigrants and native workers often complement each other in the workforce. For example, in industries such as food service or agriculture, native-born workers might handle customer-facing tasks, while immigrants perform roles that don’t require advanced language skills.
Short-Term Impacts on Wages Some research does suggest that immigrants can have a short-term effect on the wages of less-educated native-born workers, particularly those without high school diplomas. One notable study by Harvard economist George Borjas analyzed the impact of the Mariel boatlift, when over 125,000 Cuban refugees arrived in South Florida in the 1980s. Borjas found that this sudden influx of workers reduced wages for high school dropouts in Miami by 10% to 30%.
However, other economists, such as Nobel laureate David Card, have disputed Borjas’ findings, arguing that the Mariel boatlift didn’t significantly impact wages or unemployment. Card’s research suggests that the influx of workers did not lead to job losses or wage reductions for non-Cuban workers in Miami.
Clemens also disagrees with Borjas’ conclusions, emphasizing that while sudden immigration surges can temporarily impact the job market, immigrants tend to create jobs over time. He asserts, “The job creation effect overwhelms the competition effect, even in the short term.”
Long-Term Economic Benefits Over the long term, immigrants contribute to economic growth by filling labor shortages and helping to “cool” overheated markets. This was particularly true during the pandemic-era economy, when immigrant workers alleviated staffing shortages in industries like leisure and hospitality. Economist Elior Cohen, writing for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, notes that immigrant labor helped ease inflationary wage pressures in 2021 and 2022.
Additionally, research shows that immigration tends to boost wages for native workers in the long run. For instance, a study by economists Giovanni Peri and Alessandro Caiumi found that between 2000 and 2019, native workers in direct competition with immigrants for jobs often experienced “occupational upgrading,” which ultimately led to higher wages.
In conclusion, while the impact of immigration on the job market may vary depending on the economic environment, the consensus among economists is that immigration benefits the economy more than it harms it. Immigrants are not simply taking jobs—they are creating new opportunities, increasing GDP, and helping stabilize labor markets during times of economic strain.
