Yazılar

J.P. Morgan Revises Stablecoin Growth Forecast, Cuts Projections by Half

/in /tarafından

J.P. Morgan has lowered its forecast for the stablecoin market, predicting growth to reach only $500 billion by 2028—half the size projected by some analysts. The investment bank called trillion-dollar estimates “far too optimistic,” citing limited mainstream adoption of dollar-pegged stablecoins beyond crypto trading.

While stablecoins have attracted fintechs and banks seeking faster payments and settlements, their actual use in everyday transactions remains minimal. J.P. Morgan estimates that stablecoin payments account for just 6% of demand, roughly $15 billion, with the majority of activity concentrated in crypto trading, decentralized finance, and collateral usage.

This cautious outlook contrasts sharply with earlier projections from Standard Chartered, which expected the market to grow to $2 trillion by 2028, and Bernstein, which forecasted a $4 trillion market over the next decade.

J.P. Morgan noted several challenges limiting stablecoin adoption outside crypto markets, including a lack of broad use cases, fragmented regulation, and the global focus on national digital currencies or improvements to existing payment systems.

In line with this trend, China’s central bank continues to promote the digital yuan (e-CNY) for international use, while Ant Group—Alibaba’s affiliate—plans to seek a license for stablecoin issuance in Hong Kong. However, J.P. Morgan emphasized that the success of platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay, or the rise of the e-CNY, do not necessarily predict stablecoin expansion.

“The idea that stablecoins will replace traditional money for everyday use is still far from reality,” the bank said.

Micron Shares Drop as Sluggish PC Demand and Weak Forecast Cloud AI Growth Potential

/in /tarafından

Micron Technology’s shares fell by approximately 15% on Thursday after the company issued a grim forecast for the upcoming quarter, highlighting weak demand for personal computers (PCs) and smartphones, which overshadowed the positive growth in its AI-related chip sales.

Weak Demand for DRAM Chips

The market for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips, which are commonly used in personal computers and smartphones, has been struggling since the end of the pandemic. This decline is driven by a lingering supply glut and continued sluggish demand from consumers. As a result, Micron’s forecast for its flash memory chip revenue in fiscal 2025 looks bleak, as these chips are heavily dependent on PC and mobile phone shipments. According to William Kerwin, an analyst at Morningstar, the post-pandemic growth in demand for traditional PCs has not met expectations, and AI-enabled computers have yet to achieve widespread popularity.

Slow Transition to Windows 11

Micron is also facing headwinds from the slower-than-expected adoption of Windows 11, after Microsoft announced the end of support for Windows 10. This gradual transition has contributed to the challenges in the broader PC market, impacting demand for memory chips.

If the losses hold, Micron’s market value could decline by more than $17 billion, bringing it to approximately $99 billion. This downward shift in value reflects concerns about Micron’s ability to recover from these demand-related issues.

Growth in AI Chips and High-Bandwidth Memory

Despite the challenges in the PC and mobile markets, Micron has seen strong growth in its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, which are used in advanced AI systems. Revenue from these chips more than doubled sequentially, and Micron is positioning itself to take advantage of market expansion opportunities from data center investments in 2025. Analysts from Piper Sandler believe that Micron’s HBM segment remains intact and will continue to drive growth.

Micron is one of only three major HBM chip providers, alongside SK Hynix and Samsung, which has helped boost its stock by around 22% this year. Analysts expect HBM demand to remain a key driver of Micron’s performance moving forward.

Analyst Reactions

Despite the positive outlook for AI-related chips, at least 10 brokerages have lowered their price targets for Micron following its disappointing earnings results. According to data from LSEG, Micron’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is now 10.67, significantly lower than Qualcomm’s 13.4 and Advanced Micro Devices’ 23.97.