J.P. Morgan Revises Stablecoin Growth Forecast, Cuts Projections by Half

J.P. Morgan has lowered its forecast for the stablecoin market, predicting growth to reach only $500 billion by 2028—half the size projected by some analysts. The investment bank called trillion-dollar estimates “far too optimistic,” citing limited mainstream adoption of dollar-pegged stablecoins beyond crypto trading.

While stablecoins have attracted fintechs and banks seeking faster payments and settlements, their actual use in everyday transactions remains minimal. J.P. Morgan estimates that stablecoin payments account for just 6% of demand, roughly $15 billion, with the majority of activity concentrated in crypto trading, decentralized finance, and collateral usage.

This cautious outlook contrasts sharply with earlier projections from Standard Chartered, which expected the market to grow to $2 trillion by 2028, and Bernstein, which forecasted a $4 trillion market over the next decade.

J.P. Morgan noted several challenges limiting stablecoin adoption outside crypto markets, including a lack of broad use cases, fragmented regulation, and the global focus on national digital currencies or improvements to existing payment systems.

In line with this trend, China’s central bank continues to promote the digital yuan (e-CNY) for international use, while Ant Group—Alibaba’s affiliate—plans to seek a license for stablecoin issuance in Hong Kong. However, J.P. Morgan emphasized that the success of platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay, or the rise of the e-CNY, do not necessarily predict stablecoin expansion.

“The idea that stablecoins will replace traditional money for everyday use is still far from reality,” the bank said.