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Chip stocks surge after TSMC boosts outlook on soaring AI demand

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Global semiconductor stocks rose on Thursday after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) issued a strong revenue forecast and reported record quarterly profits, underscoring surging demand for chips that power artificial intelligence systems.

TSMC — the world’s largest contract chipmaker and a key supplier to Nvidia and Apple — raised its full-year revenue guidance to mid-30% growth, up from around 30%, citing stronger-than-expected AI spending and data center expansion. Analysts say this marks a shift from a cyclical boom to a structural uptrend driven by AI infrastructure demand.

“This isn’t just a transient spike. TSMC’s blowout quarter tells a clear story — this is structural,” said Kate Leaman, chief market analyst at AvaTrade.

The upbeat forecast sent semiconductor stocks higher worldwide. Micron Technology gained about 4%, Broadcom climbed 2.4%, Marvell Technology added 1.3%, and Nvidia rose 1.2%. In Asia, Samsung Electronics advanced 2.8%.

The rally came amid a week of massive AI-related deals, including BlackRock’s $40 billion acquisition of data-center operator Aligned and a partnership between OpenAI and Broadcom to build 10 gigawatts of custom chips — enough to power more than eight million U.S. homes.

The developments reinforce Wall Street’s conviction that AI hardware remains the core driver of tech investment, nearly three years after ChatGPT’s debut. On Wednesday, Salesforce also projected revenue above $60 billion by 2030, driven by rapid AI integration across its cloud services.

Micron tops forecasts with AI-fueled HBM demand, sees strong Q1 revenue

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Micron Technology projected first-quarter revenue of $12.5 billion ± $300 million, well above Wall Street’s estimate of $11.94 billion, as booming demand for its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips drives growth amid the AI race.

AI demand supercharges Micron

  • Q4 HBM revenue hit nearly $2 billion, putting Micron on pace for ~$8B annually, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said.

  • HBM chips, built by stacking DRAM vertically, reduce power use while enabling massive data processing — making them indispensable for training and running advanced AI models.

  • Micron is a key HBM supplier to Nvidia, whose dominance in AI accelerators makes HBM supply one of the most competitive battlegrounds in semiconductors.

2026 outlook already sold out

  • Micron expects to lock in deals for all 2026 HBM capacity in the coming months.

  • HBM3E pricing agreements are nearly complete; HBM4 pricing talks are ongoing.

  • “The pricing on HBM4 is actually significantly higher than the pricing on HBM3E,” said Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana, citing tight supply and strong ROI expectations.

  • TSMC will partner with Micron to manufacture the base logic die for its HBM4E chips.

Financial performance

  • Adjusted Q4 EPS: $3.03, topping forecasts.

  • Adjusted gross margin forecast (Q1): 51.5%, far above expectations of 45.9%.

  • Analysts said stronger-than-expected pricing drove the margin boost.

U.S. policy and subsidies

  • Micron has received $6.2B under the CHIPS and Science Act, passed under former President Joe Biden.

  • Current Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is exploring converting subsidies into equity stakes in chipmakers, but Sadana said Micron does not expect its grant terms to change.

  • Micron recently received a disbursement after completing a milestone at its Idaho fab, Mehrotra confirmed.

Big picture

Micron is riding the wave of AI-driven chip demand, securing long-term contracts at higher prices while boosting profitability. With HBM4 set to command premium pricing, Micron is positioning itself as a critical player alongside Nvidia, Samsung, and SK Hynix in the global AI supply chain.

SK Hynix Prepares HBM4 Production to Defend Market Lead Over Rivals

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SK Hynix (000660.KS) announced on Friday that it has completed internal certification of its HBM4 (high-bandwidth memory 4) chips and established a production system, positioning itself to maintain its dominance in the advanced memory market.

Key Developments

  • In March 2025, SK Hynix shipped 12-layer HBM4 chip samples to customers.

  • The company aims to complete mass production preparations for these chips within H2 2025.

  • Shares rose 7% to a record high of 328,500 won ($236.71), outperforming the benchmark KOSPI’s 1.5% gain.

Market Context

  • HBM technology: First introduced in 2013, HBM stacks DRAM vertically to save space, cut power use, and process vast data volumes required by AI workloads.

  • Market share: SK Hynix is projected to hold about 60% of the HBM market in 2026, down slightly from its current 66%, according to Meritz Securities.

  • Customers: Nvidia remains its largest client, though Samsung Electronics and Micron supply smaller volumes.

Rival Strategies

  • Samsung Electronics: Plans to use a 1c-nanometer node for HBM4, compared to SK Hynix’s 1b-nanometer process, signaling a push to catch up despite a weaker track record. Samsung already provided HBM4 samples to customers and plans to start supply in 2026.

  • Micron: Competing with custom-built logic dies (“base dies”) that make it harder for customers to switch suppliers.

Industry Impact

  • SK Hynix’s first-mover advantage in HBM4 is expected to secure early contracts with major AI players like Nvidia.

  • Analysts note that customer-specific base dies mark a technological shift that could lock buyers into long-term supplier relationships.

Market Performance YTD

  • SK Hynix: +88.9%

  • Samsung Electronics: +41.7%

  • Micron (Nasdaq): +78.9%

  • KOSPI benchmark: +41.5%