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US Investors Shift Focus from Chipmakers to Software Amid AI Investment Evolution

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As the AI investment boom slows, U.S. chip stocks, which were the biggest beneficiaries of last year’s surge, are struggling in 2025. The spotlight has shifted to software companies, which are now seen as the next big play in AI. This shift comes as volatility driven by tariffs and concerns about diminishing demand, coupled with the rise of lower-cost AI models from China’s DeepSeek, have weighed on semiconductor shares.

The shift towards software is being viewed by several analysts as a long-term evolution of the AI investment landscape. According to David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, there’s been a noticeable “rotation” in investor focus, especially in light of the developments surrounding DeepSeek, the semiconductor outperformance of 2024, and the ongoing restrictions on U.S. chip exports to China. “Investors are looking for the next three-to-five-year stories… those companies that will benefit from what Nvidia has already done,” he added.

So far in 2025, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has fallen 5.6%, with Nvidia, a major player in the industry, down nearly 13%. In contrast, several software companies have seen significant gains, with stocks like Atlassian, CrowdStrike Holdings, Palantir Technologies, and Cognizant rising between 7% and 19%. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking software companies have also seen substantial inflows. For example, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has attracted over $1.87 billion in 2025, already surpassing last year’s total inflows.

Analysts argue that this shift is a natural progression for AI investments, as the primary use cases for AI technology are in software. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, emphasized that LPL prefers software stocks over semiconductors, a sentiment shared by Morgan Stanley. “The second stage of the innovation cycle is when people start utilizing products, and that’s when the software companies start getting paid… we’re now starting to see the ascendancy of the software part of the equation,” said Keith Weiss, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

This trend is driven by concerns about how long chip stocks can sustain their growth rates, with some investors rethinking the value of these stocks as software companies continue to improve their market position. The rise of DeepSeek’s more affordable chatbot, which competes with expensive direct-to-consumer AI products, is one factor contributing to a more cautious outlook on semiconductors. According to Brian Mulberry, portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, competition will likely reduce profits for these products, while enterprise software companies may find it easier to monetize new AI technology.

The shift toward software stocks is also influenced by the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade tensions, which have hurt semiconductor companies. Analysts have named companies such as Palantir, Microsoft, Oracle, and Salesforce as key players in the software space, though their performance has been mixed in 2025. Palantir, which offers AI software to businesses, has seen its stock rally, while Microsoft and Salesforce have struggled, down 4.9% and 12.6%, respectively.

Despite these fluctuations, some investors remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for software companies. While valuations for software giants like Microsoft and Oracle are still considered high—trading at 27 and 23 times forward earnings, respectively—investors like Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, argue that the focus should be on AI applications, not just chips. “We don’t need more Nvidia chips, we need applications,” she said.

Dutch Chipmaker AxeleraAI Receives $66 Million EU Grant for AI Chip Development

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AxeleraAI, a prominent Dutch chipmaker focused on artificial intelligence (AI), has secured a grant of up to 61.6 million euros ($66 million) to develop a new chip designed for data centres, in line with European Union efforts to strengthen its AI capabilities.

The EU’s initiative aims to close the AI competitiveness gap between Europe, the United States, and China, by funding domestic chipmakers and establishing publicly funded AI factories—data centres that will be accessible to European scientists, companies, and startups.

Fabrizio Del Maffeo, AxeleraAI’s CEO, expressed his pride in the grant and the opportunity to expand the company’s business. AxeleraAI, based in Eindhoven, Netherlands, won the funding from EuroHPC, the agency responsible for the EU’s supercomputer and AI factory network. The company plans to use the funds to develop a chip tailored for “inference” AI computing, a process crucial for running AI models once they have been trained.

While AxeleraAI is not aiming to challenge Nvidia’s dominance in the data centre space, particularly in training large AI models, Del Maffeo emphasized that their chip will provide high-performance solutions for inference computing once networks are ready for deployment.

In addition, the rise of cost-effective AI models, like China’s DeepSeek, may drive increased demand for inference computing, offering AxeleraAI a valuable market opportunity. The company’s upcoming Titania chip will be built on the open-source RISC-V standard, an alternative to systems like Intel and Arm, gaining traction in industries like automotive and China.

AxeleraAI’s current chip, Metis, is used in “edge AI” applications, such as analyzing CCTV footage in factories to identify safety issues. Founded in 2021, AxeleraAI has previously raised $200 million in investments, including from Samsung.

Marvell Technology Forecasts In-Line Q1 Revenue, Shares Drop 15%

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Marvell Technology (MRVL.O) predicted first-quarter revenue in line with Wall Street’s expectations, but its shares fell sharply by 15% in after-hours trading. Investors were underwhelmed by the forecast, as they had hoped for more substantial growth driven by the surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips.

The AI chip market has seen booming demand, particularly for sector-leader Nvidia’s (NVDA.O) AI processors. Major tech companies like Microsoft (MSFT.O), Meta Platforms (META.O), and Amazon.com (AMZN.O) have been working to reduce their reliance on Nvidia by developing their own AI chips, a trend that has benefited companies like Marvell and Broadcom (AVGO.O).

“The earnings print was generally OK, but I believe investors were expecting more given all the bullish data points in the overall AI space and the ramp of custom ASICs (AI chips) with certain hyperscalers,” said Tore Svanberg, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus and Co.

Marvell’s data center segment performed well, with revenue up 78% year-over-year to $1.37 billion in the fourth quarter, driven by increased demand for custom AI chips as businesses work to optimize their AI workloads. In December, the company also signed a five-year chip deal with Amazon that includes custom AI chips.

“We’re engaged, we expect revenue to grow, but obviously, it’s like anything, you’ve got to show you can do it, and you’ve got to show it consistently,” Marvell COO Chris Koopmans said, emphasizing the “sticky” nature of the Amazon deal.

Marvell has pledged to focus its investments on data centers, seeing them as the best way to capitalize on the AI boom. Data center revenues accounted for 75% of its total revenue in the most recent quarter. However, Koopmans added that Marvell had not yet experienced any impact from tariffs affecting its data center business.

Despite posting solid results, Marvell’s shares dropped to $77.65 in after-hours trading, following a year-to-date increase of over 83%. In contrast, its larger competitor Broadcom saw a stock jump of around 107%. Analysts pointed to concerns over geopolitical pressures, AI monetization, and the magnitude of Marvell’s earnings beat as factors contributing to the decline.

Marvell forecast first-quarter revenue of $1.88 billion, slightly above analysts’ expectations of $1.87 billion.