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Quantum Computing Stocks Drop After Nvidia CEO’s Dismal Outlook

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Quantum computing stocks experienced a significant decline on Wednesday, halting a year-long rally, after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang predicted that practical quantum computers are still two decades away. This stark timeline casts doubt on the future of the sector, which had seen optimism due to early-stage breakthroughs but is still far from achieving widespread commercial success.

Huang suggested that while the technology shows potential, “very useful quantum computers” are likely 15 to 30 years away, with 20 years being the most plausible estimate. This forecast contrasts with the rapid growth of the quantum computing industry in recent years, driven by high-profile developments like Google’s December breakthrough in the field.

Stocks of companies like Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, Quantum Computing, and IonQ plunged by more than 40%, collectively losing over $8 billion in market value. The decline reflects the industry’s current struggle with niche applications and the massive investment needed for future progress. Despite the steep drop, Ivana Delevska, chief investment officer of Spear Invest, which holds shares in Rigetti and IonQ, stated that the 15 to 20-year timeline seems realistic, mirroring the trajectory Nvidia followed in developing accelerated computing.

Despite the long road ahead, quantum computing remains a key area for national security, with governments counting on its potential for military applications, particularly in decryption technology. However, the current revenues of these companies are minimal, with IonQ, valued at over $10 billion, projecting $41.6 million in revenue for fiscal 2024, and Rigetti, valued at $4.4 billion, expected to generate just $11 million in the same period.

Analysts, like Richard Shannon from Craig-Hallum, suggest that while these companies are far from profitable, their future revenue growth, particularly from government contracts, is crucial to their long-term potential. Shannon also noted that while quantum computing may disrupt traditional computing, it could ultimately benefit Nvidia, a major player in the accelerated computing space.

 

Netherlands in Talks with Nvidia and AMD for AI Supercomputer Facility

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The Dutch government announced on Thursday that it is in discussions with U.S. semiconductor companies Nvidia and AMD regarding the supply of hardware and technological expertise for a proposed artificial intelligence (AI) supercomputer facility. The initiative is part of broader efforts within the European Union to boost the region’s digital economy and advance AI research.

The Netherlands aims to establish a cutting-edge facility that would play a pivotal role in AI research and development, contributing to the continent’s technological competitiveness. Last year, the Dutch government allocated 204.5 million euros ($210 million) toward AI investments, with plans to leverage European Union subsidies as well.

Dutch Economy Minister Dirk Beljaarts noted that discussions with Nvidia and AMD have strengthened the likelihood of successfully realizing the project. While he did not provide specific details, he emphasized the global competition for AI technology, remarking that “the whole world is after this technology.” The minister indicated that these talks bring the vision of a Dutch AI facility much closer to reality.

 

TSMC’s Q4 Revenue Exceeds Expectations, Boosted by AI Demand

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, reported a strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, with revenue significantly surpassing market forecasts, driven by robust demand for artificial intelligence (AI) products. TSMC’s customers, including major tech firms like Apple and Nvidia, have been key players in the AI revolution, which has helped offset the slowdown in chip demand for consumer electronics like tablets following the pandemic.

For the October-December period, TSMC posted revenue of T$868.42 billion ($26.36 billion), a 34.4% year-on-year increase, exceeding the expected T$853.57 billion ($25.90 billion) according to analysts surveyed by LSEG SmartEstimate. This marks a significant jump from the $19.62 billion revenue recorded during the same period in 2023.

TSMC had previously forecasted fourth-quarter revenue to fall between $26.1 billion and $26.9 billion, which it successfully met within its guidance range. For December alone, the company reported a 57.8% year-on-year revenue increase, reaching T$278.16 billion.

This positive performance reflects the growing demand for semiconductors used in AI applications, with other Taiwanese firms, such as Foxconn, also reporting strong earnings in the fourth quarter due to the AI boom. TSMC is scheduled to announce its full fourth-quarter earnings on January 16, where it will provide an updated outlook for the current quarter and the full year.

The company’s stock rose 81% in 2024, far outpacing the broader market’s 28.5% gain, though it closed flat on Friday ahead of the revenue release.