Quantum computing stocks experienced a significant decline on Wednesday, halting a year-long rally, after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang predicted that practical quantum computers are still two decades away. This stark timeline casts doubt on the future of the sector, which had seen optimism due to early-stage breakthroughs but is still far from achieving widespread commercial success.
Huang suggested that while the technology shows potential, “very useful quantum computers” are likely 15 to 30 years away, with 20 years being the most plausible estimate. This forecast contrasts with the rapid growth of the quantum computing industry in recent years, driven by high-profile developments like Google’s December breakthrough in the field.
Stocks of companies like Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, Quantum Computing, and IonQ plunged by more than 40%, collectively losing over $8 billion in market value. The decline reflects the industry’s current struggle with niche applications and the massive investment needed for future progress. Despite the steep drop, Ivana Delevska, chief investment officer of Spear Invest, which holds shares in Rigetti and IonQ, stated that the 15 to 20-year timeline seems realistic, mirroring the trajectory Nvidia followed in developing accelerated computing.
Despite the long road ahead, quantum computing remains a key area for national security, with governments counting on its potential for military applications, particularly in decryption technology. However, the current revenues of these companies are minimal, with IonQ, valued at over $10 billion, projecting $41.6 million in revenue for fiscal 2024, and Rigetti, valued at $4.4 billion, expected to generate just $11 million in the same period.
Analysts, like Richard Shannon from Craig-Hallum, suggest that while these companies are far from profitable, their future revenue growth, particularly from government contracts, is crucial to their long-term potential. Shannon also noted that while quantum computing may disrupt traditional computing, it could ultimately benefit Nvidia, a major player in the accelerated computing space.