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ASML to Halt Reporting of Key Metric, Citing Volatility

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ASML, the world’s leading chip equipment manufacturer, has announced it will stop publishing new order bookings, a key metric closely watched by investors. The company argues that the figure is too inconsistent and causes excessive volatility in its stock price.

Instead, ASML believes its own forecasts—based on discussions with chipmakers about their capacity expansion plans—offer a more reliable indicator of future performance. The company’s circuit-printing machinery plays a critical role in chip manufacturing, but orders can take six to 18 months to fulfill, making quarterly booking figures difficult to interpret.

“The swing factor is significant,” said Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen, explaining the move.

The decision, announced on Wednesday, came as ASML’s stock jumped 7% following better-than-expected fourth-quarter bookings of €7.1 billion ($7.4 billion), a sharp increase from the €2.6 billion recorded in Q3. The fluctuation was likely driven by timing of orders from TSMC, which recently unveiled a $38 billion capital expenditure plan for 2025.

While analysts acknowledge the downside of losing insight into short-term order trends, they largely understand ASML’s reasoning.

“There is downside for investors, as we lose visibility on average bookings and backlog confidence,” said Sara Russo of Bernstein. However, she agreed that a single quarter’s bookings are not the best measure of long-term business health.

Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam added that capital expenditure announcements from major clients such as TSMC, Intel, and Samsung already provide sufficient indicators of future demand.

Despite market fluctuations, Dassen emphasized that ASML’s full-year sales and margins remained aligned with its January 2024 forecasts.

“If you put all those quarters together, you see it wasn’t too shabby, was it?” he remarked.

 

STMicroelectronics Cautious on 2025 Outlook Amid Weak Q1 Forecast

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STMicroelectronics (STMicro), one of Europe’s leading semiconductor manufacturers, announced on Thursday that it is too early to provide full-year guidance for 2025, as market uncertainties and inventory corrections continue to weigh on its business. The company warned that sales would decline further in the first quarter, reflecting a prolonged downturn in key markets.

STMicro’s stock fell 6.8% to 22.18 euros by 1226 GMT, hitting its lowest level since June 2020. CEO Jean-Marc Chery told analysts that the company expects the first quarter to mark the low point for 2025 but refrained from offering a full-year outlook due to limited visibility in demand recovery.

The company forecast first-quarter revenue of $2.51 billion, a nearly 28% year-over-year drop, falling short of analysts’ expectations of $2.72 billion, according to LSEG’s IBES data. This follows an earlier warning in November about a steeper-than-usual seasonal revenue decline.

The broader semiconductor industry is facing headwinds, with Texas Instruments, a key competitor, also reporting weak first-quarter projections due to inventory buildup in the automotive and industrial sectors.

To manage the downturn, STMicro plans to significantly reduce production days across its fabrication plants, assembly, and test facilities. Finance chief Lorenzo Grandi stated that some manufacturing sites would undergo temporary closures in the first quarter, with additional reductions likely extending into the second quarter.

Despite these challenges, STMicro reported fourth-quarter net income of $341 million, exceeding analysts’ estimates of $326 million. Strong performance in personal electronics partially offset declining industrial sector revenues.

For 2025, the company plans to scale back capital expenditures, targeting an investment of $2 billion to $2.3 billion, compared to $2.53 billion in 2024 and $4 billion in 2023.

 

ASML CEO Discusses Positive Impact of DeepSeek AI Launch on Chip Demand

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Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML, shared his perspective on the growing influence of AI technologies, such as China’s DeepSeek, on the global chip market. He emphasized that efficient AI models are ultimately a positive force for the semiconductor industry, countering the perception that AI spending is primarily driven by large-scale investments from tech giants like Google, Meta, and Microsoft. These companies are pouring billions into building advanced data centers, but according to Fouquet, the actual demand for chips driven by this sector remains relatively small.

Fouquet argued that the broader chip demand will come from the integration of AI into various consumer and industrial applications. He highlighted examples, such as AI-enabled phones, cars, and robotics, noting that for these products to reach mass adoption, the cost of the chips must be affordable. If the cost of chips remains high, only a small number of expensive units would be sold, limiting widespread access to AI technology.

When discussing the recent launch of DeepSeek’s AI product, which had a significant impact on tech stock prices, Fouquet remained optimistic, stating that anything that helps drive down costs is beneficial for ASML in the long run. While the potential of DeepSeek’s technology remains uncertain, he believes that cost reduction is key to enabling AI to be more accessible to a wider audience.

Analyst Sara Russo from Bernstein agreed with Fouquet’s viewpoint but noted that the effects of DeepSeek’s launch are still unfolding. She pointed out that ASML’s role as a supplier will depend on how AI applications evolve and influence chip demand, as well as the needs of chip manufacturers.