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Tech Group Urges U.S. to Halt AI Chip Export Restrictions Amid Growing Concerns

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A coalition of tech companies, including Amazon (AMZN.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), and Meta (META.O), has urged the Biden administration to reconsider a pending rule that would restrict global access to AI chips. The rule, which could be finalized as soon as Friday, is viewed by the Information Technology Industry Council (ITI) as a threat to U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence.

The proposed rule, backed by the U.S. Commerce Department, aims to regulate AI chip exports to prevent adversaries, particularly China, from gaining access to advanced technologies that could enhance their military capabilities. While the restrictions are framed as a national security measure, industry leaders argue that they could hinder U.S. companies’ ability to compete globally and inadvertently benefit foreign competitors.

In a letter to U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, ITI CEO Jason Oxman expressed concerns about the rushed nature of the rule. Oxman warned that implementing such a consequential policy at the end of President Biden’s term could result in unforeseen consequences, damaging the U.S.’s competitive edge in the rapidly growing AI sector.

The group called for a more measured approach, recommending that any new regulations be introduced as a proposed rule rather than a final one. They stressed the importance of considering the broader geopolitical and economic impact, which could jeopardize the U.S.’s position in global AI development.

The anticipated rule has sparked strong opposition within the tech industry, with the Semiconductor Industry Association and Oracle executives voicing their concerns. Oracle’s executive vice president, Ken Glueck, criticized the measure, describing it as an overly broad regulation that would impact nearly all commercial cloud computing globally.

The Commerce Department and the White House have yet to respond publicly to the mounting criticism, but the issue continues to garner significant attention from both industry leaders and policymakers as the Biden administration enters its final days.

Nvidia Faces Revenue Threat from New U.S. AI Chip Export Curbs, Analysts Say

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Nvidia, one of the world’s most valuable companies with a market cap exceeding $3 trillion, faces a significant revenue risk due to new U.S. export restrictions on artificial intelligence (AI) chips. The Biden administration’s latest regulations, considered the most stringent so far, aim to limit the global distribution of AI chips while maintaining blocks on exports to China and other restricted nations.

The new rules seek to close regulatory loopholes that have previously allowed advanced chips to reach adversaries, particularly China, where they could potentially enhance military capabilities. However, the restrictions could jeopardize Nvidia’s revenue growth, as nearly 56% of its sales come from international markets, including 17% from China. Nvidia shares fell around 2% following the announcement.

Analysts Warn of Market Contraction

Analysts predict the export restrictions will severely constrain Nvidia’s market opportunities. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria noted that as much as half of Nvidia’s chips currently go to countries that will now be off-limits under the new regulations. This could hinder Nvidia’s ability to sustain its rapid revenue growth, which has been driven by surging global demand for AI chips.

Ned Finkle, Nvidia’s Vice President of Government Affairs, criticized the move, stating it threatens global innovation, economic growth, and America’s leadership in AI. Finkle warned that the rules would impose unnecessary bureaucratic hurdles on U.S. companies, potentially allowing foreign competitors to capture market share.

The Semiconductor Industry Association echoed these concerns, arguing that U.S. firms could lose ground to international rivals in the rapidly expanding AI sector.

Impact on American Firms

The new export curbs have broader implications for U.S. tech firms. Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell, remarked that while the rules assert U.S. dominance in advanced technology, they also risk limiting the earnings potential of leading companies like Nvidia.

Nvidia has enjoyed a meteoric rise, with its forward price-to-earnings ratio climbing from 31 to over 80 at its peak in mid-2023. Analysts, however, suggest that these export restrictions could temper its long-term growth trajectory.

Cloud Providers Emerge as Beneficiaries

Major cloud service providers, including Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, stand to benefit from the new rules. Under the regulations, these companies can apply for global authorizations to bypass licensing requirements for AI chips. This allows them to build data centers in countries where chip imports are otherwise restricted, solidifying their dominance as AI market leaders.

CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino emphasized that these cloud providers have the financial resources and established customer bases to capitalize on the availability of advanced chips, further enhancing their competitive edge.

Regulatory Uncertainty Under Incoming Administration

The rules are set to take effect 120 days after publication, leaving room for potential modifications by the incoming Trump administration. While President-elect Donald Trump has expressed similar concerns about China, analysts believe his administration might negotiate deals with individual companies or revise the list of exempted allies.

Coatsworth suggested Trump might adjust the restrictions to align with his preference for striking bilateral agreements but is unlikely to overturn the broader policy.

As the U.S. tightens its grip on AI chip exports, the impact on Nvidia and the broader tech industry will depend heavily on how these regulations are enforced and whether future administrations amend the rules to mitigate their economic effects.

 

Arm Holdings Plans Major Price Increases, Considers Developing Own Chips

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Arm Holdings, a key supplier of chip designs to tech giants such as Apple, Qualcomm, and Microsoft, is planning to increase its chip royalty rates by as much as 300%. The company, owned 90% by SoftBank Group, has also discussed the possibility of designing its own chips to directly compete with its major customers. These moves are part of Arm’s long-term strategy to increase its revenue and expand beyond licensing intellectual property.

Strategic Shifts and Pricing Plans

Arm’s pricing strategy, referred to as the “Picasso” project, aims to secure a $1 billion increase in smartphone-related revenue over the next decade. Part of this initiative includes raising the royalty rates it charges for ready-made chip designs, especially those based on its latest architecture, Armv9. However, large customers like Apple and Qualcomm may avoid some of these hikes by designing their own chips using Arm’s technology, bypassing Arm’s pre-designed components.

Documents presented during a trial in 2024 revealed that Arm had considered a dramatic 300% price increase for its royalty rates, though this proposal was never fully implemented. Despite the uncertainty, Arm executives expressed confidence in the company’s ability to push forward with these higher prices, even amid the possibility of losing some customers to in-house chip designs.

Competition with Customers

Arm’s ambitions to compete directly with its clients, particularly in chip design, were highlighted in testimony from CEO Rene Haas. In a conversation with an executive, Haas hinted that Arm could eventually create its own chips to compete against customers like Qualcomm, calling them “hosed” if the company pursued this path. This bold strategy has raised concerns among Arm’s customers, with analysts suggesting that Arm’s move could unsettle the market.

Despite this, Haas downplayed his comments, attributing them to informal brainstorming sessions about potential future strategies. While Arm has not yet entered the chip-manufacturing business, the company is exploring possibilities for evolving its business model.

Industry Reactions and Future Plans

Arm’s plans for expansion beyond its traditional licensing business model could significantly alter the competitive landscape in the tech industry. The company’s proposal to work more closely with device makers and secure deals directly with manufacturers has already begun to impact relationships, as evidenced by a meeting between Arm’s CEO and Samsung in 2022. This conversation stirred concerns about Qualcomm’s ability to supply chips to Samsung in the future, leading to changes in their supply agreements.

In response to these developments, analysts have expressed concern over how Arm’s potential shift toward chip design could affect its customer base, especially as it risks upsetting relationships with major firms in the semiconductor industry.