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China’s CXMT Plans $42 Billion Shanghai IPO to Fuel AI Chip Ambitions

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ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), China’s leading memory chipmaker, is preparing for a Shanghai initial public offering (IPO) as early as the first quarter of 2026, targeting a valuation of up to 300 billion yuan ($42.1 billion), according to sources familiar with the matter. The listing would mark one of China’s largest tech IPOs in years and a major step in Beijing’s drive for semiconductor self-sufficiency.

Founded in 2016 with state backing, CXMT is China’s main producer of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips — a market long dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology. The company aims to raise between 20 billion and 40 billion yuan, two sources said, while a third suggested about 30 billion yuan, with a prospectus possibly unveiled in November.

CXMT’s IPO plans come amid a surge in Chinese semiconductor stocks, with the CSI CN Semiconductor Index up nearly 49% this year. The firm has already begun pre-IPO “counselling” procedures with China International Capital Corporation and CSC Financial, both state-backed investment banks.

The proceeds will help finance CXMT’s aggressive push into high bandwidth memory (HBM) — an advanced form of DRAM critical for AI chips and data center processors such as those used in Nvidia’s GPUs. The company is building an HBM packaging plant in Shanghai, targeting initial production by late 2025 and mass output of HBM3 chips by 2026.

CXMT’s expansion is especially vital after U.S. trade restrictions cut off China’s access to advanced HBM chips last year. Analysts at TechInsights estimate the firm’s capital expenditure at $6–7 billion across 2023–2024, with a further 5% increase in 2025. The company’s initial HBM wafer capacity will reach about 30,000 per month, roughly one-fifth that of SK Hynix.

If successful, the IPO could attract heavy domestic investor demand, seen as both a financial opportunity and a patriotic play in China’s race to achieve technological independence.

AI Boom Sparks Global Shortage and Price Surge in Conventional Memory Chips

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The worldwide race to produce advanced AI chips is causing a supply crunch for more traditional memory chips used in smartphones, computers, and servers — triggering panic buying and steep price increases across the semiconductor industry. Executives and analysts say the AI frenzy has unexpectedly set off a “super cycle” in the memory market, giving long-awaited relief to manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology.

As chipmakers shift production capacity toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) — essential for powering Nvidia’s AI processors — the supply of conventional DRAM and DDR5 server memory has tightened sharply. According to Fusion Worldwide president Tobey Gonnerman, demand has surged “in a fast and furious way,” leading to double and triple ordering reminiscent of past shortages.

The shortage coincides with a replacement cycle for data centers and personal computers, alongside stronger-than-expected smartphone sales. As a result, spot prices of DRAM nearly tripled in September compared to last year, while average inventories have dropped to just eight weeks, down from 31 weeks in early 2023.

Analysts predict that non-HBM chips could soon surpass HBM in profitability if current trends continue. In the latest quarter, Samsung earned an estimated 40% margin on commodity DRAMs, compared with 60% on HBMs. Rising prices have already pushed companies like Raspberry Pi to raise consumer prices, citing memory costs that have more than doubled over the past year.

Still, experts warn against overhyping a permanent boom. TechInsights vice chair Dan Hutcheson said the current cycle may last only a year or two, with a potential industry downturn forecast for 2027. While Samsung stands to benefit most from its non-HBM dominance, investors remain cautious about its ability to close the gap with rivals SK Hynix and TSMC in next-generation AI chip technologies.

ASML poised to benefit from AI megadeals and chip expansion wave

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Dutch chipmaking equipment giant ASML is expected to benefit from a surge in AI-related megadeals between major technology firms and semiconductor manufacturers, with investors anticipating a strong outlook when it reports third-quarter earnings on Wednesday.

Analysts believe ASML’s top customers — including TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung — are preparing to ramp up production capacity through 2026 and beyond, driven by a global race to expand AI data centres. These expectations have already boosted ASML’s stock by 32% since early September, outpacing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which rose 15% in the same period.

Forecasts compiled by Visible Alpha suggest new bookings — a key industry indicator — will total 5.36 billion euros ($6.21 billion) for the quarter, following 9.48 billion euros in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, net income is projected to rise 1.4% year-on-year to 2.11 billion euros, according to LSEG IBES data.

Recent multi-billion-dollar deals between NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Samsung, Meta, and Oracle are fuelling optimism for ASML, whose machines — costing more than $300 million each — are essential for producing advanced chip circuitry.

However, analysts note that building fabrication plants can take several years. They want to hear whether ASML’s clients can accelerate these expansion plans amid rising demand. “Every memory chipmaker is likely to increase production capacity for AI,” said Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam, citing Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, and Chinese competitors.