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ASML poised to benefit from AI megadeals and chip expansion wave

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Dutch chipmaking equipment giant ASML is expected to benefit from a surge in AI-related megadeals between major technology firms and semiconductor manufacturers, with investors anticipating a strong outlook when it reports third-quarter earnings on Wednesday.

Analysts believe ASML’s top customers — including TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung — are preparing to ramp up production capacity through 2026 and beyond, driven by a global race to expand AI data centres. These expectations have already boosted ASML’s stock by 32% since early September, outpacing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which rose 15% in the same period.

Forecasts compiled by Visible Alpha suggest new bookings — a key industry indicator — will total 5.36 billion euros ($6.21 billion) for the quarter, following 9.48 billion euros in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, net income is projected to rise 1.4% year-on-year to 2.11 billion euros, according to LSEG IBES data.

Recent multi-billion-dollar deals between NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Samsung, Meta, and Oracle are fuelling optimism for ASML, whose machines — costing more than $300 million each — are essential for producing advanced chip circuitry.

However, analysts note that building fabrication plants can take several years. They want to hear whether ASML’s clients can accelerate these expansion plans amid rising demand. “Every memory chipmaker is likely to increase production capacity for AI,” said Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam, citing Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, and Chinese competitors.

Samsung forecasts best profit in three years amid AI-driven chip boom

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Samsung Electronics said it expects its largest quarterly profit since 2022, as a global surge in demand for AI and memory chips pushes prices higher and tightens supply. The South Korean tech giant estimated an operating profit of 12.1 trillion won ($8.5 billion) for the July–September quarter, up 32% year-on-year and well above the 10.1 trillion won expected by analysts. This marks Samsung’s best performance in 13 quarters.

Analysts said the surprise earnings were powered by strong demand for commodity memory chips, used in data centre servers, which offset slower-than-expected progress in the company’s high bandwidth memory (HBM) chip sales to Nvidia. Despite slipping 0.5% in morning trade after an early rally, Samsung’s stock has risen around 75% this year, reflecting investor confidence in its chip rebound.

Experts noted that reduced inventories and stronger DRAM and NAND prices have given Samsung an edge. “Samsung is a big beneficiary of growing demand for commodity chips,” said Sohn In-joon from Heungkuk Securities. Meanwhile, narrower losses at its foundry unit helped ease cost pressures.

The company also expects revenue to hit a record 86 trillion won, up 8.7% year-on-year, aided by a weaker won. However, analysts warned that trade tensions between the U.S. and China, potential U.S. tariffs, and China’s export controls on rare earth materials could cloud future performance.

Samsung plans to release full quarterly results on October 30 and has reportedly introduced a stock-based incentive plan for all South Korean employees to align performance with company growth.

Samsung and SK Hynix Surge After OpenAI Chip Partnership Boosts AI Optimism

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Shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix soared on Thursday after OpenAI announced a major partnership with the two South Korean chipmakers to support its massive Stargate artificial intelligence data centre project in the United States.

Samsung Electronics jumped 4.7%, reaching its highest level in more than four years, while SK Hynix surged 12% to an all-time high, adding a combined $37 billion in market capitalization.
The rally also lifted South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index by more than 3%, marking a new record.

MARKET REACTION AND ANALYST INSIGHT

Analysts said the partnership could dispel earlier market fears about potential declines in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chip prices amid rising competition.

“Such worries will be easily resolved by this strategic partnership,” wrote Jeff Kim, analyst at KB Securities, predicting a sharp rise in chip demand driven by the Stargate project.
Kim added that, since Stargate is a key U.S. government-backed initiative led by President Donald Trump, the collaboration could also positively influence trade negotiations between Washington and Seoul.

DETAILS OF THE PARTNERSHIP

The deal — part of the $500 billion Stargate project aimed at building next-generation AI infrastructure — will see OpenAI, Samsung, and SK Hynix jointly work on semiconductor procurement and the construction of two data centres in South Korea, referred to as a “Korean-style Stargate.”
Each data centre will start with a 20-megawatt capacity, and Seoul hopes the project will help position South Korea as an Asian AI hub, given that the country already ranks second globally in the number of paying ChatGPT subscribers after the United States.

WIDER IMPACT ON SAMSUNG AFFILIATES

Other Samsung affiliates also gained sharply on the news:

  • Samsung SDI rose on expectations of increased demand for advanced power systems.

  • Samsung C&T and Samsung SDS advanced after confirming new roles in AI data centre construction and infrastructure partnerships with OpenAI.

STRONGER EXPORT OUTLOOK

The AI-driven semiconductor boom has been a key factor in South Korea’s economic rebound, with exports rising in September at their fastest pace in 14 months, defying concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs.
Seoul hopes to finalize a trade agreement with the United States by late October, following a preliminary deal reached in July that would lower tariffs on South Korean imports in exchange for a $350 billion U.S. investment package.

However, officials have said talks have stalled over concerns about foreign exchange risks and the structure of the investment commitments.