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EU Tariffs Unlikely to Deter Chinese EV Makers from Expanding in Europe

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Despite the European Union’s new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), Chinese automakers remain well-positioned to expand in the European market. Recent revisions have slightly reduced the tariffs, with BYD seeing a cut to 17% from 17.4%, Geely to 19.3% from 19.9%, and SAIC from 37.6% to 36.3%.

Research by Rhodium suggests that tariffs would need to be as high as 50% to make Europe unattractive to Chinese EV exporters, and potentially even higher for vertically integrated manufacturers like BYD. At their current levels, these tariffs will not significantly hinder Chinese EV manufacturers from entering the European market. Joseph McCabe, president and CEO of AutoForecast Solutions, noted that while the tariffs introduce hurdles, they do not act as barriers, given the strong interconnections between European and Chinese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).

In contrast to the EU, North America has taken a more aggressive stance, with the U.S. imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, followed by a similar move from Canada. McCabe highlighted that the EU is attempting to balance promoting domestic production without severely impacting its interconnected Chinese operations.

Chinese automakers, particularly BYD, are also targeting the European market with competitively priced models. In May, BYD announced its Dolphin model, priced at under $21,550—significantly cheaper than Tesla’s China-imported Model 3, which faces a 9% tariff and sells for $44,480 in the UK. Even with the EU’s 17% tariff, the Dolphin remains about $23,270 cheaper than Tesla’s Model 3.

To compete, Volkswagen plans to release a low-cost electric vehicle priced similarly to BYD’s offerings by 2027. However, McCabe noted that new, innovative EV players are often valued more for their potential than short-term financial performance, which is the focus for legacy manufacturers like Volkswagen.

William Ma, CIO of GROW Investment Group, pointed out that tariffs would need to rise to 300% to significantly impact Chinese EV makers, which is unlikely. The risk of retaliatory tariffs from China also complicates the EU’s approach, especially given ongoing tensions over perceived unfair subsidies for Chinese EV manufacturers.

Ma suggested that geopolitical factors and sanctions could persist for another year or two, making the situation difficult to resolve in the short term.

 

China’s Exports Surge by 8.7% in August, Exceeding Expectations

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China’s exports witnessed a significant increase of 8.7% year-on-year in August, surpassing the 6.5% growth predicted by a Reuters poll, according to data from the country’s customs agency. Imports, on the other hand, grew by only 0.5%, falling short of the 2% growth expected. In July, China’s exports rose by 7%, while imports outpaced predictions with a 7.2% increase.

China’s exports to its key trading partners—the U.S., the European Union, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—also showed growth in August, with exports to the EU rising by 13%, the highest among these partners. The U.S. saw a 12% rise in imports from China, while imports from the EU fell. Meanwhile, imports from ASEAN increased by 5%.

In trade with Russia, China’s imports declined by 1%, whereas exports to Russia grew by 10%. The month also saw China’s exports of cars and ships surge by nearly 40%, while smartphone exports rose by 6.7%. Other sectors, like suitcase exports, saw a growth of 9%, and integrated circuits showed an 18% rise in exports, with imports climbing by 11%.

Despite this growth, the rare earths trade exhibited a decline, with rare earth exports falling by 1% and imports dropping by 12% in August. This decrease followed China’s recent policy to increase oversight of its rare earth industry for national security reasons. China also announced export controls on antimony, set to take effect later in September. Additionally, crude oil imports fell by 7% in volume during August.

In yuan terms, year-to-date exports increased by 6.9%, while imports grew by 4.7%. Exports have been a strong point for China amidst ongoing struggles to stimulate domestic demand. However, China faces growing trade tensions with the U.S. and EU, with tariffs on Chinese electric cars and other goods adding pressure.