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IMF economist warns AI boom may echo dot-com bust but unlikely to trigger financial crisis

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The U.S. artificial intelligence investment boom could end in a dot-com-style market correction, but it is unlikely to spark a systemic financial crisis, according to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Speaking at the start of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, Gourinchas told Reuters that the AI frenzy mirrors the late 1990s internet bubble, with surging stock valuations and paper wealth driving consumption and inflation. “This is not financed by debt,” he said, adding that a potential crash would hurt shareholders and equity holders, but not destabilize the broader banking system.

The IMF said investment in AI chips, data centers, and computing infrastructure has fueled optimism about future productivity gains, though these benefits have yet to materialize. Unlike the dot-com era — when technology investment jumped 1.2% of U.S. GDP between 1995 and 2000 — AI-related spending has so far increased by only 0.4% of GDP since 2022.

While the IMF does not expect a direct threat to financial stability, Gourinchas cautioned that a correction could trigger a broader repricing of assets and stress on non-bank financial institutions.

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook noted that AI investment, alongside lower-than-expected tariffs and easier financial conditions, has helped sustain global growth. However, Gourinchas warned that AI-driven spending and consumption could add to inflation pressures without corresponding productivity gains.

The IMF now projects U.S. inflation to ease more slowly, reaching 2.7% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. He added that the lingering effects of tariffs and reduced immigration are constraining supply and keeping prices elevated.

U.S. Data Center Construction Hits Record $40 Billion Amid AI Boom

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Construction spending on U.S. data centers hit a record $40 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in June, according to a new report from the Bank of America Institute. The surge reflects the massive capital pouring into AI infrastructure by major technology companies.

By the Numbers

The $40 billion figure represents a 30% jump from last year, following an even steeper 50% surge in 2024, based on U.S. Census Bureau data.

Why It Matters

The explosive growth of generative AI and machine learning has triggered an unprecedented demand for computing power. Tech giants including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon are investing billions to expand their hyperscale data centers, enabling them to run AI workloads at scale. This infrastructure boom has also fueled record sales for Nvidia, whose GPUs power much of the AI ecosystem and now account for the bulk of its revenue.

Key Quotes

“Hyperscalers are a big part of the increased demand for power, but they’re not the whole picture,” Bank of America Institute economists led by Liz Everett Krisberg noted.
They emphasized that much of the projected growth in U.S. electricity demand through 2030 will also come from EV adoption, industrial reshoring, building electrification, and heating systems — highlighting how AI-driven infrastructure is just one force in a broader energy transformation.

Chime Surpasses Revenue Forecasts in First Earnings After Blockbuster IPO

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Chime reported second-quarter revenue that exceeded Wall Street expectations, marking a strong debut earnings report following its highly successful U.S. IPO in June. The digital banking firm generated $528 million in revenue for the three months ended June 30, up 37% from a year earlier and above analysts’ average forecast of $495.2 million, according to LSEG data.

The strong performance was driven by growing demand for Chime’s low-cost, digital-first financial services, which appeal especially to younger U.S. customers seeking alternatives to traditional banks with high fees and limited flexibility. Average revenue per active member rose 12% year-over-year to $245.

Purchase volume, representing transactions through Chime-branded debit and credit cards, increased 18% to $32.4 billion. The company’s CEO, Chris Britt, described the quarter as a “breakout” period, citing accelerating growth, expanding margins, and consistent product execution.

Chime’s offerings include a secured credit card for credit building, early direct deposit access, small-dollar loans, and a deposit sweep program that spreads funds across partner banks. Its payments-based banking model targets everyday Americans who often rely on debit transactions and have limited credit histories.

Gross profit for the quarter rose to $461 million from $333.7 million a year earlier, reflecting both higher transaction activity and consumer resilience in spending despite broader economic uncertainty. Since its IPO, Chime’s shares have risen about 25%, though they experienced minor volatility in after-hours trading.