What Happens After the TikTok Ban?

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on Friday denied TikTok’s request to avoid a ban, putting the app at risk of shutting down in just two days, potentially affecting millions of users in the U.S. who rely on it for entertainment, e-commerce, and advertising. The ban stems from a 2024 national security law requiring TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, to sell the app or face its closure in the U.S. by January 19.

While President-elect Donald Trump, set to take office on Monday, has hinted at seeking a political solution, the immediate effects of the ban remain uncertain.

What Happens to the App?

• TikTok will be unavailable for download from Apple and Google app stores, and updates to the app will be prohibited. The law restricts any entity from facilitating the app’s download or maintenance.
• Oracle, which hosts TikTok’s U.S. user data, may experience disruptions in its work with the app.
• Despite the ban, TikTok plans to continue paying its 7,000 U.S. employees.

How Will Users Be Affected?

• TikTok’s 170 million U.S. users who have already downloaded the app will still be able to use it for a time, but the lack of updates could render it obsolete. A web-based version may emerge but will likely offer fewer features.
• Some users might attempt to access TikTok through virtual private networks (VPNs) to bypass the ban.
• Alternative Chinese social media platforms, such as Xiaohongshu (RedNote), could see an increase in U.S. users.
• Content creators on TikTok are redirecting their followers to platforms like Instagram and YouTube to prepare for the potential shutdown.

What Will Advertisers Do?

• Advertisers have started to devise contingency plans, aware that a TikTok ban would disrupt their campaigns. If the ban is enforced, over $11 billion in annual U.S. ad spending could shift to other platforms.
• Marketers will be watching Meta, Snap, and others to see who benefits from the spending shift.
• Some advertisers may continue their campaigns beyond January 19 to monitor TikTok’s performance in the U.S. before reassessing their investments.

What Happens to U.S.-China Trade Relations?

• A TikTok ban could escalate the already tense trade relations between the U.S. and China, following previous export restrictions on American semiconductor technology to Beijing.
• Analysts suggest that President Trump could use a potential reversal of the ban as leverage in negotiations with China, possibly securing concessions or other trade benefits.

Who Are the Potential Buyers?

• Despite TikTok’s repeated stance that it cannot be sold, some buyers are still interested. Billionaire Frank McCourt, former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers, has valued TikTok without its algorithm at approximately $20 billion.
• Reports have surfaced suggesting that Chinese officials might be considering a sale of TikTok’s U.S. operations to Elon Musk, though TikTok has dismissed this as “fiction.”