US Warns Huawei Can Produce No More Than 200,000 AI Chips in 2025, But China Is Catching Up
Huawei Technologies will likely produce no more than 200,000 advanced artificial intelligence chips in 2025, according to Jeffrey Kessler, Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security at the U.S. Commerce Department. While this figure falls short of meeting China’s growing demand, Kessler cautioned that China is rapidly narrowing the technological gap with the United States.
Speaking before the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs South and Central Asia subcommittee on Thursday, Kessler emphasized that the production limitations do not mean the U.S. can become complacent. “China is investing huge amounts to increase its AI chip production, as well as the capabilities of the chips that it produces. So, it’s critical for us not to have a false sense of security,” he warned.
Since 2019, Washington has implemented a series of export controls restricting Huawei and other Chinese firms’ access to high-end U.S. chips and manufacturing equipment. These curbs aim to slow China’s progress in critical technologies and prevent potential military applications. Despite these hurdles, Huawei plans to supply its domestically produced Ascend 910C AI chips to Chinese customers as an alternative to Nvidia’s more advanced products.
White House AI Czar David Sacks recently stated that China is only 3-6 months behind the U.S. in AI model capabilities. However, he clarified that Chinese AI chip hardware remains about one to two years behind leading U.S. competitors such as Nvidia. Huawei’s CEO Ren Zhengfei also acknowledged the gap, noting that the company’s chips trail behind U.S. products by a generation, though Huawei continues to invest more than $25 billion annually to advance performance.
While Huawei is expanding its AI chip output, U.S. export controls have hampered Nvidia’s ability to maintain its market dominance in China. Recent trade negotiations between the U.S. and China in London resulted in a tentative truce, yet tensions persist, especially after the Trump administration imposed new export controls on semiconductor design software, jet engines for Chinese aircraft, and other critical technologies.
During the congressional hearing, Democratic Representative Greg Meeks raised concerns about the Trump administration’s approach, suggesting it has blurred the lines between export control policy and broader trade issues. Kessler reassured lawmakers that export controls remain robust and effective, while also stressing that the Commerce Department will continue to actively monitor and adjust regulations as the technology landscape evolves.
At present, there are no immediate plans for further restrictions on U.S. semiconductor sales to China, though officials remain vigilant about developments in China’s domestic semiconductor sector.
