Samsung Electronics reported a steep 56% year-on-year drop in Q2 operating profit, projecting earnings of 4.6 trillion won ($3.36 billion)—significantly below analyst expectations of 6.2 trillion won, according to LSEG SmartEstimate. This marks Samsung’s weakest quarterly performance in six quarters, as its semiconductor division continues to struggle with shifting global dynamics in the AI chip market.
The South Korean tech giant blamed its sharp decline on U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports to China, which have disrupted its sales pipeline. However, analysts pointed to delays in delivering high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips to Nvidia as a major factor in its underperformance. Unlike rivals SK Hynix and Micron, which have seen strong AI-driven chip demand, Samsung has been slower to supply its latest HBM3E 12-layer chips, with customer evaluations still ongoing and no specific update on Nvidia shipments.
“Everything ultimately comes back to HBM,” said Ryu Young-ho, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, noting that Samsung’s competitive edge hinges on reclaiming leadership in the HBM segment.
Revenue for the quarter is expected to come in nearly flat at 74 trillion won, down just 0.1% from a year ago. But the semiconductor division likely took the hardest hit, with analysts estimating its operating profit may have dropped over 90% to just 500 billion won, partly due to inventory value adjustments and unsold HBM stockpiles.
Adding to the challenges, potential U.S. tariffs and mounting competition in China—where Samsung still has a heavy market presence—are expected to weigh on both its chip and smartphone margins in the near term.
Samsung’s foundry business also saw falling earnings, attributed to low utilisation rates and inventory write-downs, stemming from the same U.S. AI chip export restrictions. However, the company expects foundry performance to gradually improve in the second half of 2025 as utilisation recovers with demand.
Despite the weak outlook, Samsung announced a 3.9 trillion won ($2.85 billion) share buyback, part of a broader 10 trillion won repurchase plan unveiled in late 2024. Investors remained cautious, with Samsung shares slipping 0.2%, while Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index rose 1.2% during morning trading.
Looking ahead, Samsung hopes to recover with upcoming phone launches and by expanding HBM sales beyond Nvidia to other customers. A full breakdown of business unit performance is expected on July 31, when the company releases its detailed Q2 earnings report.