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ASML said it expects Chinese sales to fall “significantly” next year, after having made up nearly half of company sales in 2024 and a third so far in 2025. CFO Roger Dassen said on a media call the decline was a “normalization” and not due to stockpiling amid the U.S.-China trade war. U.S.-led export restrictions mean ASML cannot sell its most advanced tools in China, a point of contention between the superpowers, with China recently tightening control of exports of rare earth metals. ASML said it would not be affected by those restrictions in the short term. ASML said sales will be, at worst, flat in 2026, from around 32.5 billion euros ($37.82 billion) in 2025. “We believe the bearish view of a worse than expected 2026 will be put to rest and the market will focus on the extent the company can grow in 2027”, JPMorgan analysts said. ASML’s lithography tools, key for making chip circuitry, are sold to TSMC of Taiwan (2330.TW), opens new tab – which makes most AI chips for Nvidia – and to other logic chip firms such as China’s SMIC (0981.HK), opens new tab and Intel (INTC.O), opens new tab. It also serves memory chip makers like Samsung (005930.KS), opens new tab, SK Hynix (000660.KS), opens new tab and Micron (MU.O), opens new tab. The company reported third-quarter net income of 2.12 billion euros, in line with the 2.11 billion euros analysts expected, according to LSEG IBES data.

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ASML, the world’s leading manufacturer of chip-making machines, surpassed market expectations for new orders as global demand for AI technologies continues to surge. CEO Christophe Fouquet highlighted that the company is experiencing “continued positive momentum around investments in AI,” which is fueling growth in both advanced logic and memory chip sectors.

The Dutch tech giant reported net bookings of €5.40 billion for the third quarter, slightly above analysts’ forecasts, and confirmed a net income of €2.12 billion — matching market expectations. ASML’s shares have jumped 37% since September and rose an additional 3.2% in early trading to €873.80.

However, ASML warned that sales to China are expected to fall sharply next year after years of rapid growth. CFO Roger Dassen described the dip as a “normalization” rather than a response to U.S.-China trade tensions. U.S. export controls continue to prevent ASML from selling its most advanced lithography systems in China, though the company said recent Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports won’t affect it in the near term.

ASML now forecasts flat sales in 2026, around €32.5 billion, before growth resumes in 2027. Analysts at JPMorgan believe market concerns over a weaker 2026 will ease, shifting focus toward the company’s long-term expansion prospects. ASML’s customers include major chipmakers such as TSMC, Intel, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, which all play critical roles in AI hardware development.

ASML dismisses claims of Chinese tool stockpiling, says ready for rare earth curbs

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ASML has downplayed concerns that its expected decline in China sales next year is linked to Chinese chipmakers stockpiling its lithography machines, saying the slowdown reflects market dynamics rather than preemptive buying.

“The reason I rule out previous stockpiling is because systems that we ship are actually in a chips factory,” said Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen during a press briefing on Wednesday. His comments followed ASML’s third-quarter earnings report, which warned of a significant fall in Chinese demand in 2025.

Chinese customers accounted for 42% of ASML’s machine sales in the latest quarter, making China its largest single market. However, U.S. lawmakers have urged tighter export restrictions on ASML, alleging that Chinese firms are purchasing chipmaking tools beyond domestic needs to hedge against future sanctions.

ASML, the world’s top semiconductor equipment maker, said it remains confident in the resilience of its business outside China, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Dassen also addressed concerns about China’s rare earth export restrictions, emphasizing that ASML is well prepared in the short term. “We have inventory, we have alternatives. But of course, there is an impact we are navigating,” he said.

China produces over 90% of the world’s processed rare earths and magnets, which are essential components in ASML’s chipmaking tools. Dassen cautioned that longer-term disruptions could be more serious if global trade tensions deepen. “It’s important the world continues to trade so we don’t face lasting limitations,” he said.

ASML poised to benefit from AI megadeals and chip expansion wave

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Dutch chipmaking equipment giant ASML is expected to benefit from a surge in AI-related megadeals between major technology firms and semiconductor manufacturers, with investors anticipating a strong outlook when it reports third-quarter earnings on Wednesday.

Analysts believe ASML’s top customers — including TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung — are preparing to ramp up production capacity through 2026 and beyond, driven by a global race to expand AI data centres. These expectations have already boosted ASML’s stock by 32% since early September, outpacing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which rose 15% in the same period.

Forecasts compiled by Visible Alpha suggest new bookings — a key industry indicator — will total 5.36 billion euros ($6.21 billion) for the quarter, following 9.48 billion euros in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, net income is projected to rise 1.4% year-on-year to 2.11 billion euros, according to LSEG IBES data.

Recent multi-billion-dollar deals between NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Samsung, Meta, and Oracle are fuelling optimism for ASML, whose machines — costing more than $300 million each — are essential for producing advanced chip circuitry.

However, analysts note that building fabrication plants can take several years. They want to hear whether ASML’s clients can accelerate these expansion plans amid rising demand. “Every memory chipmaker is likely to increase production capacity for AI,” said Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam, citing Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, and Chinese competitors.