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Japan’s METI Says DeepSeek’s Impact on Energy Demand is Hard to Predict

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Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) has stated that it is currently difficult to predict the potential impact of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, on electricity demand. While there is a prevailing view that the growth of data centers could lead to increased power consumption, METI highlighted the complexities involved in determining how emerging technologies like DeepSeek will influence future energy requirements.

In December, the Japanese government released a draft of its updated basic energy plan, a policy document reviewed every three years. The plan projected a 10-20% rise in electricity generation by 2040, driven in part by the growing use of AI technologies. However, the advent of DeepSeek, which is rumored to consume less power compared to its competitors, has led analysts to debate whether electricity demand will rise or decrease. While some suggest that DeepSeek’s efficiency could lower demand, others believe that as the technology becomes more accessible and widespread, its adoption may ultimately increase power consumption.

METI explained that the relationship between AI and energy demand is influenced by numerous factors, including improvements in AI performance, cost reductions, and the development of energy-efficient technologies. As such, it remains challenging to predict how specific technologies like DeepSeek will affect Japan’s future energy needs.

The ministry emphasized that Japan’s economic growth and industrial competitiveness will be closely tied to these evolving dynamics, underscoring the importance of considering various technological, economic, and energy-related variables when forecasting demand.

 

Emirati Billionaire to Invest $20 Billion in U.S. Data Centers, Announces Trump

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Emirati billionaire Hussain Sajwani, the chairman of Dubai-based real estate developer DAMAC, has committed to investing $20 billion in the rapidly growing U.S. data center industry. Sajwani made the announcement on Tuesday during a meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump at his Palm Beach, Florida estate, Mar-a-Lago.

The planned investment is part of a broader effort to bolster the U.S. economy, with Trump emphasizing the importance of strengthening domestic industries. The announcement comes amid Trump’s focus on economic policies that seek to curb China’s access to key technology, including chips used for advanced data centers. In his remarks, Sajwani expressed a willingness to increase the investment beyond the initial $20 billion if market conditions permit, stating, “We’re planning to invest $20 billion and even more than that, if the opportunity in the market allows us.”

Sajwani’s company, DAMAC, has already made its mark in the Middle East by owning the region’s only Trump-branded golf course in Dubai, which opened in 2017. The billionaire’s connection with Trump has grown closer, with the two having celebrated the New Year together in Florida.

While Trump has a history of promoting large investments for economic growth, the outcomes have sometimes been less substantial. For instance, a promised $10 billion Foxconn factory investment in Wisconsin, announced early in Trump’s first term, resulted in a project that was ultimately scaled back and left many promises unmet.

Sajwani’s announcement follows recent moves by other major investors, including SoftBank Group’s CEO Masayoshi Son, who, in collaboration with Trump, committed to a $100 billion investment in the U.S. over the next four years, focusing on AI. The surge in investments in AI and its supporting infrastructure, such as data centers, follows the introduction of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in late 2022, which sparked a wave of interest in generative AI technologies.

Microsoft also revealed plans to invest about $80 billion in the U.S. this fiscal year to expand its AI capabilities. The Biden administration has increasingly restricted the export of AI chips to China, aligning with Trump’s foreign policy stance and recent nominations of China hard-liners to key diplomatic and economic roles.

J.P. Morgan Forecasts Data Center Spending Could Boost US GDP by 20 Basis Points in 2025-2026

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J.P. Morgan projects that spending on data centers could add between 10-20 basis points to the U.S. economy in 2025-2026, driven by the ongoing surge in technology investments fueled by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. The growing demand for computing power, particularly following OpenAI’s launch of ChatGPT in 2022, has accelerated investments in data centers, which support the infrastructure necessary for AI development.

Major cloud companies, such as Microsoft and Alphabet, have been heavily investing in AI technologies, and J.P. Morgan anticipates that these investments will significantly contribute to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). The economic boost is expected to stem from increased demand for data center construction, technology equipment, and power generation and transmission infrastructure. According to the bank’s estimates, data center spending could have contributed 0.1%-0.3% to GDP growth in 2024.

Additionally, J.P. Morgan noted that each new 5-10 gigawatt power generation capacity expansion could require up to $20 billion in investment, which would add 7 basis points to GDP. As U.S. power consumption is expected to hit record levels in 2025 and 2026, the federal government has taken action to support this growth, with President Joe Biden signing an executive order aimed at addressing the massive energy needs of rapidly expanding AI data centers.

The data center sector’s economic impact is expected to continue in the coming years, driven by advancements in AI innovation. However, J.P. Morgan cautioned that the long-term success of this growth will depend on whether the expected returns on these investments are realized, similar to previous technology booms.