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China’s Bond Market Hits Historic Low as 10-Year Yield Falls Below 2%

China’s 10-year government bond yield fell below 2% on Monday, reaching a historic low of 1.975%. This milestone highlights the impact of a sluggish economy, sustained investor demand for bonds, and expectations of further rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). The decline in yield reflects the growing appeal of safer assets amid China’s economic uncertainties.

Key Drivers of the Rally

The decade-long rally in China’s bond market accelerated over the past two years due to several factors:

  1. Economic Slowdown: Weak growth, particularly in the property sector, has dampened risk appetite.
  2. Low Deposit Rates: The recent ban on offering preferential deposit rates underscores the low-rate environment.
  3. Investor Appetite: Funds and institutions remain under-allocated to bonds, prompting increased purchases, especially by insurance companies anticipating allocations ahead of the new year.

Morgan Stanley analysts predict continued bond market strength, citing expectations of a 40 basis point (bps) cut in China’s policy rate by the end of Q1 2024.

Comparative Yield Dynamics

China’s bond yields now significantly trail those of U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year Chinese bond offers 222 bps less than its U.S. counterpart, marking the largest gap since the early 2000s. This inversion reflects China’s weaker economic performance compared to the U.S. post-pandemic.

Additionally, China’s 30-year bond yield fell 4 bps to 2.16%, while 10-year treasury futures, which move inversely to yields, rose 0.4% to a record closing high.

PBOC Measures and Policy Impact

The PBOC has implemented policies aimed at reducing rates, including:

  • Aligning deposit rates for non-bank institutions with the 7-day reverse repo rate of 1.5%.
  • Injecting liquidity into the market, such as 800 billion yuan in 3-month reverse repos in November.

These measures lower short-term rates and contribute to the downward trend in long-term yields. For instance, one-year AAA-rated negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) fell 10 bps on Monday to below 1.7%.

Outlook for 2024

Analysts expect China’s 10-year yield to decline further, potentially reaching the 1.7%-1.9% range next year. Loose monetary policy and supportive funding conditions will likely sustain the bond rally.

Implications

While the bond market’s performance signals robust investor confidence in fixed-income securities, it also reflects deeper concerns about China’s economic trajectory. Policies aimed at preventing a hard landing may keep yields low, but the challenges of spurring growth remain.

 

Delivery Drivers in China Face Mounting Pressure Amid Economic Slowdown

China’s booming food delivery industry is showing signs of strain as the nation’s economic slowdown weighs heavily on the workers who drive its growth. Tensions are rising among delivery drivers, who are under immense pressure due to tight deadlines, shrinking wages, and a harsh work environment.

Recent viral videos show drivers reaching breaking points. In one clip, a rider smashes his phone after receiving a negative customer review. In another, a driver pleads with a police officer after running a red light, then pushes over his bike and runs away in frustration. In yet another, a group of drivers protests outside an apartment complex after one of their colleagues was allegedly mistreated by security guards. These incidents reflect the mounting stress faced by workers in China’s food delivery sector, which has become the largest in the world by both revenue and volume.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the industry more than doubled in size, reaching $214 billion in 2023. However, the surge in demand that once provided steady income for drivers has now given way to an increasingly competitive and unstable environment. With China’s economy facing multiple challenges, such as a real estate crisis and declining consumer spending, delivery workers are feeling the squeeze.

In a sluggish economy, consumers are cutting back on spending, including takeout orders, which directly impacts the earnings of delivery drivers who rely on commission-based pay. Jenny Chan, an associate professor of sociology at Polytechnic University of Hong Kong, points out that drivers now work longer hours to maintain their earnings. Lower-priced orders mean lower commissions, and with fewer tips coming in, workers must push themselves harder to make ends meet.

China’s food delivery market is dominated by two giants—Meituan and Ele.me—which together control much of the industry. Their dominance gives them the power to set the terms of employment for drivers, often leaving workers with little room to negotiate better conditions. Labor rights advocates have raised concerns about deteriorating working conditions, noting that drivers are frequently penalized for minor infractions, even when they are not at fault.

With around 12 million drivers forming the backbone of China’s food delivery network, the industry remains essential, but the challenges it presents are mounting. Many drivers work in hazardous conditions, rushing to meet deadlines even in dangerous weather, and facing increased risks of accidents. The intense competition and lack of labor protections leave workers vulnerable, as many are treated as freelancers without job security or steady income.

Despite the industry’s growth, workers’ pay has declined. Last year, the average monthly income for delivery drivers was 6,803 yuan ($956), nearly 1,000 yuan less than five years ago. For many drivers, like 20-year-old Lu Sihang, this means working grueling 10-hour shifts just to earn enough to survive. With youth unemployment in China hitting record highs, more people are entering the delivery workforce, further intensifying competition for orders.

This competitive environment, combined with shrinking paychecks, has created a volatile situation. Delivery platforms have reduced bonuses and pay for workers, while restaurants, facing their own financial challenges, are offering cheaper delivery deals to attract customers. As profits soar for companies like Meituan and Ele.me, drivers are left bearing the brunt of cost-cutting measures.

Gary Ng, an economist at Natixis, explains that as China’s economy slows, consumer spending on delivery orders is decreasing, forcing restaurants to lower prices. This reduction in spending, coupled with the vast number of drivers vying for a limited number of orders, has significantly weakened workers’ bargaining power.

While some drivers, like 35-year-old Yang, appreciate the flexibility the job offers, many acknowledge that conditions are far from ideal. For many, the choice is simple: work longer hours or face financial hardship. In an industry that once offered a path to stable income, the future for China’s delivery drivers now seems increasingly uncertain.

 

China to Cut Existing Mortgage Rates by End of October to Boost Property Market

China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), announced on Sunday that it would instruct commercial banks to lower mortgage rates on existing home loans by October 31. This move is part of broader policies aimed at supporting the country’s struggling property market amidst an economic slowdown.

The PBOC’s statement detailed that commercial banks should reduce existing mortgage rates in stages, with rates to be set at least 30 basis points below the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), China’s benchmark mortgage rate. On average, this adjustment is expected to lower rates by approximately 50 basis points.

Throughout 2023, China has introduced various policies, including lowering down-payment requirements and mortgage rates, in an attempt to revitalize its property sector. However, these measures have had limited success in boosting sales or improving liquidity in a market that remains cautious, contributing to a drag on broader economic growth.

Adding to these nationwide efforts, cities like Guangzhou announced the removal of all home purchase restrictions, while major urban centers such as Shanghai and Shenzhen revealed plans to relax housing rules for non-local buyers. In addition, the minimum down-payment ratio for first-time homebuyers in these cities will be reduced to 15%.

These policy adjustments come shortly after China launched its largest economic stimulus package since the COVID-19 pandemic, seeking to pull the economy out of a deflationary trend.

The need for urgent adjustments was highlighted earlier this month when new home prices fell at their fastest pace in over nine years, and property sales plunged by 18% during the first eight months of the year. By cutting mortgage rates, the central bank hopes to ease the financial burden on homeowners, stimulate the property market, and revive weak domestic consumption.

“As market-oriented reforms on interest rates deepen, and the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market undergoes significant changes, the current mortgage rate pricing mechanism has exposed its shortcomings,” the PBOC said. “The public response has been strong, indicating that the mechanism requires urgent adjustments and optimization.”

China’s largest state-owned banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have indicated their commitment to implementing these changes. The aim is to adjust mortgage interest rates in an orderly fashion, offering relief to homeowners.

While previous rate cuts primarily benefited new homebuyers, existing homeowners have continued to carry higher-rate loans. This has resulted in many households rushing to pay off their mortgages early, which in turn has constrained spending and consumption.

According to official data, the total value of individual mortgages in China stood at 37.79 billion yuan ($5.39 billion) as of June, marking a 2.1% decline year-on-year.

Additionally, the PBOC announced an extension of supportive measures for real estate developers, allowing access to loans and trust funds until the end of 2026 to help meet financing needs and stabilize the sector.