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Nvidia to Exclude China from Financial Forecasts Amid U.S. Export Restrictions

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Nvidia will stop factoring in revenue and profit from the Chinese market in its financial forecasts, CEO Jensen Huang told CNN on Thursday, citing ongoing U.S. trade restrictions on chip sales to the region. The decision comes as the U.S. maintains stringent export controls that limit Nvidia’s ability to sell its advanced chips to Chinese customers.

When asked if the ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. and China could lead to a lifting of export controls, Huang said he was not counting on any changes:

“If it happens, then it will be a great bonus. I’ve told all of our investors and shareholders that, going forward, our forecasts will not include the China market.”

Huang reiterated his criticism of U.S. chip export curbs, arguing that they are not achieving their intended policy objectives. “The goals of the export controls are not being achieved,” he said. “The goals have to be well-articulated and tested over time.”

According to D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria, Nvidia may face downside risks for 2026 if it remains unable to resume sales to China. Nvidia’s China business remains significant: in the first quarter, China accounted for 12.5% of the company’s total revenue, generating $4.6 billion largely from customers stockpiling the H20 chip before the restrictions took full effect.

The company estimates the export curbs cost it $2.5 billion in lost sales in Q1, with an $8 billion revenue hit projected for Q2. Nvidia is still exploring limited options for the Chinese market but acknowledged:

“Until we settle on a new product design and receive approval from the U.S. government, we are effectively foreclosed from China’s $50 billion data center market.”

Michael Ashley Schulman, CIO at Running Point Capital, said Nvidia’s move to exclude China from its forecasts simplifies its financial outlook:

“By zero-basing China, Nvidia removes a volatile variable that neither Wall Street nor the Commerce Department can reliably handicap.”

Nvidia to Build Germany’s First Industrial AI Cloud, Boosting Europe’s AI Infrastructure

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Nvidia announced plans to develop its first artificial intelligence cloud platform for industrial applications in Germany, CEO Jensen Huang said Wednesday at the VivaTech conference in Paris. The AI cloud will combine artificial intelligence with robotics to support automotive giants like BMW and Mercedes-Benz in tasks ranging from product design simulation to logistics management.

Huang also detailed a broader Europe-focused strategy including expanding Nvidia technology centers across seven countries, launching a compute marketplace for European companies, and advancing AI models in multiple languages. The company is supporting drug discovery efforts with partners like Novo Nordisk.

“In just two years, we will increase the amount of AI computing capacity in Europe by a factor of 10,” Huang declared during his nearly two-hour presentation.

Europe is embracing the concept of “AI factories,” large-scale infrastructures dedicated to AI model development, training, and deployment. Huang announced plans for 20 such AI factories across the continent.

Huang is scheduled to visit Berlin Friday and is expected to meet with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, signaling political support for the initiative.

Though specifics about the plant’s location, cost, and construction timeline were not disclosed, the move could be a win for Germany’s ruling coalition following recent setbacks with Intel and Wolfspeed suspending factory plans.

While Europe trails the U.S. and China in AI development, the European Commission revealed a $20 billion investment plan to build four AI factories earlier this year.

Additionally, Nvidia is partnering with European AI startup Mistral to power AI computing using 18,000 latest Nvidia chips for European enterprises.

“Sovereign AI is an imperative—no company, industry or nation can outsource its intelligence,” Huang said.

He emphasized the importance of AI adoption to avoid falling behind globally and expressed optimism about quantum computing’s near-term impact, noting it could solve complex problems beyond even advanced AI systems.

This announcement reinforces Nvidia’s role as a global AI infrastructure leader and marks a significant step in strengthening Europe’s AI ecosystem.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Backs Trump’s Plan to Ease AI Chip Export Curbs

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has strongly criticized U.S. export restrictions on AI chips to China, calling them a “failure” that cost American firms billions in lost sales while accelerating China’s self-reliance in semiconductor development. Speaking at the Computex conference in Taipei, Huang welcomed the Trump administration’s decision to reverse some of the Biden-era controls, signaling a shift that could reshape global tech policy.

“The fundamental assumptions that led to the AI diffusion rule have been proven to be fundamentally flawed,” Huang said, referring to the Biden administration’s three-tiered export control regime, which entirely blocked sales of advanced chips to China.

Impact on Nvidia and U.S. Industry

Since the Biden administration’s controls came into effect, Nvidia’s market share in China fell from 95% to 50%, Huang revealed. Nvidia has been hit particularly hard, taking a $5.5 billion charge in April related to its blocked H20 chip, and Huang now estimates total revenue loss at $15 billion.

Despite these setbacks, Huang noted that AI research in China has continued unabated and is now being powered by local technologies, particularly chips from Huawei and other Chinese semiconductor designers. He estimated that China’s AI market will be worth $50 billion in 2025 and called the competition there “intense”.

“They would love for us never to go back to China,” he said.

Trump’s Strategy: A Shift in Direction

Huang praised the Trump administration’s plan to move away from rigid export tiers and toward a global licensing regime based on government-to-government agreements. The proposed shift could provide the U.S. more flexibility and leverage in trade negotiations while also easing pressure on U.S. tech firms.

“President Trump realises it’s exactly the wrong goal,” Huang said, arguing that isolating China from U.S. tech would not stop AI innovation and only encourage the growth of competitive alternatives.

Nvidia’s Workaround

Nvidia is now developing a new version of its Blackwell AI chip that includes slower memory, allowing it to comply with current U.S. restrictions while still serving key markets.

Rising Tensions

China responded sharply to recent U.S. moves that warned firms against using Chinese-made AI chips like Huawei’s Ascend, urging the U.S. to “immediately correct its wrongdoings.” Beijing warned that such measures violate trade agreements and undermine cooperation, threatening “resolute” countermeasures.

Industry Outlook

While the Biden administration had aimed to contain China’s semiconductor and military advancements, the unintended consequence appears to be a rapid buildup of China’s domestic AI and chipmaking capabilities. Huang’s remarks underscore the growing frustration within U.S. tech circles over policies they say are self-damaging.

Meanwhile, Nvidia continues to dominate the global AI infrastructure market, with new product announcements at Computex expected to further boost its $130.5 billion revenue base.