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Meta Reports Strong Q4 Sales But Forecasts Muted Outlook Amid AI Investments

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Meta Platforms (META.O) exceeded Wall Street expectations for its fourth-quarter revenue, reporting $48.4 billion, which outpaced analysts’ predictions of $47 billion. Despite this strong performance, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram issued a cautious outlook for the first quarter of 2025, with expected revenue between $39.5 billion and $41.8 billion, slightly below the analysts’ consensus of $41.72 billion.

Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, struck an optimistic tone during a conference call, focusing on the company’s AI initiatives. He expressed confidence in the open-source AI strategy, commenting that the emergence of Chinese startup DeepSeek’s AI models reinforced his belief in this direction. “There’s going to be an open-source standard globally,” Zuckerberg remarked, emphasizing that he sees it as an American standard.

However, Meta’s outlook raised questions about the company’s capital spending, as the company relies on its core social media advertising business to finance its significant AI and “metaverse” investments, such as smart glasses and augmented reality systems. Meta has already committed up to $65 billion in capital expenditures for 2025 to expand its AI infrastructure, alongside increasing AI-related hires. The company also anticipates total expenses for 2025 to be between $114 billion and $119 billion, up from $95 billion in 2024.

Jeremy Goldman, principal analyst at eMarketer, noted that while Meta’s fourth-quarter results were strong, the key issue going into 2025 is whether its substantial AI investments will pay off. He highlighted that Meta’s family daily active people (DAP) metric, which tracks unique users who open any of its apps in a day, grew by 5% year-over-year to 3.35 billion.

Meta’s results came after DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, launched new models that outperformed top U.S. competitors at a fraction of the cost, fueling concerns about the sustainability of U.S. AI business models and triggering a tech stock selloff. Zuckerberg acknowledged the challenges posed by DeepSeek but said it was too early to determine how its global impact would affect Meta’s AI strategy. He added that Meta’s AI teams were already incorporating insights from DeepSeek’s models into their work.

Meta continues to face financial losses in its metaverse-focused Reality Labs unit, which, while exceeding sales expectations, still reported a $5 billion loss in Q4. Despite these losses, Zuckerberg believes the long-term business potential of AI will become evident after 2025.

Meta’s hefty investment in AI includes plans to acquire more of Nvidia’s AI chips and develop custom silicon to train AI systems for better feed recommendations by next year. CFO Susan Li confirmed the company’s goal to use its own chips for these AI tasks. Meta’s continued investment in AI is part of its broader strategy to enhance user experiences across its platforms, while also aiming for cost reductions in AI model development.

 

Chip Stocks Mixed Amid DeepSeek Shock, Earnings in Focus

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Semiconductor stocks experienced a mixed performance on Wednesday, with European chip stocks surging due to strong earnings, while U.S. stocks, including Nvidia, faced continued pressure as investors weighed the potential impact of China’s low-cost DeepSeek AI tool.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index struggled to find direction, down 0.4% by mid-day, and the broader S&P 500 tech index fell 1.9%, primarily due to a significant drop in Nvidia’s shares, which were down more than 6%. Nvidia had seen an 8.9% increase on Tuesday after suffering a 17% drop on Monday, marking a record one-day loss in market value. The decline came after DeepSeek, a Chinese startup, unveiled its free AI assistant, which quickly overtook OpenAI’s ChatGPT in downloads on Apple’s App Store, signaling that China may be catching up in the AI race.

Investors are still trying to assess the implications of DeepSeek’s emergence and its ability to challenge established players in the AI market. Jack Ablin, CIO at Cresset Capital, pointed out that the market is in a “middle ground,” with some investors taking DeepSeek seriously and others brushing it off as a temporary disturbance. He added that investors are struggling to determine whether the news is fundamentally negative for high-priced stocks like Nvidia, or if the AI industry will continue its upward trajectory despite the challenge.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s ongoing policy meeting and earnings results from major tech companies are also in focus. Quarterly results from Microsoft and Meta, set to be released later Wednesday, will be scrutinized for insights into their AI investment plans.

Jefferies Chief Economist Mohit Kumar noted that while chipmakers and energy sectors may continue facing pressure, other sectors could rebound from Monday’s sell-off and gain momentum. However, the current high valuations of certain tech companies will require strong earnings results to justify their prices.

Despite the buzz around DeepSeek, some experts remain skeptical of the startup’s long-term success, especially due to the lack of information about its spending budget. Additionally, OpenAI and Microsoft are investigating whether DeepSeek improperly used data from ChatGPT in its technology.

In Europe, tech stocks saw a strong rally, boosted by ASML’s nearly 5.6% gain following its report of unexpectedly strong bookings. The European tech index finished up 2.4%, with BE Semiconductor and ASM International also seeing significant gains.

In contrast, U.S. semiconductor stocks were mixed. While Nvidia, Cirrus Logic, ARM Holdings, and Broadcom all saw losses, Coherent Corp and Advanced Micro Devices posted gains, rising by 3.6% and 2.6%, respectively. ASML’s U.S. shares also saw a strong 4.4% increase.

 

AI Stock Shock Could Spark Broader Market Gains

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A recent shock in artificial intelligence stocks, driven by concerns over the low-cost Chinese AI model, could set the stage for broader gains in the U.S. stock market, potentially moving beyond the narrow group of tech shares that have dominated the current bull market.

The tech sector, led by mega-cap companies, has been the primary driver of market growth. Over the past two years, the S&P 500’s tech sector has surged about 90%, far outpacing the broader index. However, stocks of major tech firms like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Oracle took a hit on Monday as investors reacted to the impact of DeepSeek’s AI model, a new low-cost competitor from China.

Despite the drop, there are signs of a broader market rotation. While the S&P 500 fell by 1.5%, roughly 70% of the index’s constituents saw gains, indicating a shift away from the dominance of big tech. The S&P 500 growth index, which is tech-heavy, dropped about 3.6%, while the value stock index rose by nearly 1%, marking the largest one-day advantage for value stocks over growth in decades.

This development has led some analysts to predict a more balanced market leadership, which could benefit investors by diversifying opportunities beyond the tech sector. Keith Lerner from Truist Advisory Services pointed out that this shift would provide a broader range of profitable areas for investors.

The Magnificent Seven tech stocks—Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla—have been the cornerstone of market gains, accounting for 55% of the S&P 500’s total return since 2022. However, these stocks have recently underperformed, leading to speculation that other sectors may begin to lead market growth.

While many investors remain bullish on tech, there is growing sentiment that the earnings strength of the Magnificent Seven may start to level with the rest of the market. In 2025, earnings for these stocks are expected to rise 19%, compared to 12.3% for the broader index. As quarterly earnings reports come in, including from Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla, investors will be closely watching for signals that the market is broadening.

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel, remarked that Monday’s market drop acted as a wake-up call for investors who had viewed tech stocks as invincible, potentially leading to a shift in investment towards other sectors.

While tech bounced back on Tuesday, increasing by over 3%, analysts like Robert Pavlik from Dakota Wealth Management see an opportunity for a rotation into companies that could benefit from more affordable AI, particularly software firms. The impact of DeepSeek could ultimately lead to a shift in market dynamics, though it may take time for a broader market expansion to fully materialize.