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Super Micro Shares Fall After Forecasting Q4 Revenue Below Estimates Amid Tariff, Spending Concerns

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Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O), a leading AI server manufacturer, projected fourth-quarter revenue below Wall Street expectations, causing its shares to drop 5.4% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. The company cited economic uncertainty, tariffs, and delayed customer spending as near-term headwinds.

The San Jose-based firm forecast Q4 revenue between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion, falling short of analysts’ average estimate of $6.82 billion, according to LSEG data. The company has benefited from surging demand for AI data center infrastructure, leveraging chips from Nvidia, AMD, and others, but has also faced accounting issues in recent months that sparked delisting concerns on the Nasdaq.

Despite some clients delaying purchases, Super Micro expects those deferred deals to materialize in the June–September quarter. However, investor sentiment remains cautious, particularly in light of growing concerns about AI investment slowdowns and tariff-related impacts.

Kim Caughey Forrest of Bokeh Capital Partners suggested the lowered guidance might be self-inflicted, rather than purely market-driven, while D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria noted the possibility that Super Micro may be losing market share to competitors like Dell, rather than signaling a broader downturn in AI infrastructure demand.

For fiscal year 2025, Super Micro revised its revenue forecast downward to $21.8 billion to $22.6 billion, from a previously expected $23.5 billion to $25.0 billion.

The company had released preliminary results last week, but the lower guidance and uncertain macroeconomic environment continue to weigh on investor confidence.

Robinhood Beats Profit Estimates as Post-Election Trading Surge Lifts Volumes

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Robinhood (HOOD.O) exceeded expectations for fourth-quarter profit, driven by a sharp rise in equity, options, and cryptocurrency trading after Donald Trump returned to the White House. Following the announcement, Robinhood’s shares jumped more than 14% in after-hours trading.

The company’s transaction-based revenue soared 236% to $672 million compared to the same quarter a year ago, fueled by increased fees from options, equities, and crypto trades.

Crypto trading activity was a major growth driver, with revenue from that segment rising 700% during the quarter as bitcoin approached the $100,000 mark. Investors were optimistic about pro-crypto policies expected under the new Trump administration.

“It was no secret that Robinhood’s Q4 earnings were going to be great, driven primarily by a huge uptick in crypto-related revenues,” said John Wu, President of Ava Labs.

The surge in equity and crypto markets came after Trump’s election victory, as investors anticipated deregulation and pro-business policies that would favor U.S. corporations and the growing digital asset sector.

Robinhood reported an adjusted profit of $1.01 per share, well above analysts’ expectations of 44 cents, according to data from LSEG.

The company’s assets under custody increased by 88% to $193 billion during the quarter, and quarterly net interest revenue, driven largely by margin investing, rose 25% to $296 million.

“This was a big quarter for us, so we did over $1 billion in revenue for the first time in the history of the company, and that capped off what was a record-breaking year with over $3 billion in revenue for the whole year,” Robinhood co-founder and CEO Vlad Tenev said on the company’s post-earnings call.

Meta Reports Strong Q4 Sales But Forecasts Muted Outlook Amid AI Investments

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Meta Platforms (META.O) exceeded Wall Street expectations for its fourth-quarter revenue, reporting $48.4 billion, which outpaced analysts’ predictions of $47 billion. Despite this strong performance, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram issued a cautious outlook for the first quarter of 2025, with expected revenue between $39.5 billion and $41.8 billion, slightly below the analysts’ consensus of $41.72 billion.

Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, struck an optimistic tone during a conference call, focusing on the company’s AI initiatives. He expressed confidence in the open-source AI strategy, commenting that the emergence of Chinese startup DeepSeek’s AI models reinforced his belief in this direction. “There’s going to be an open-source standard globally,” Zuckerberg remarked, emphasizing that he sees it as an American standard.

However, Meta’s outlook raised questions about the company’s capital spending, as the company relies on its core social media advertising business to finance its significant AI and “metaverse” investments, such as smart glasses and augmented reality systems. Meta has already committed up to $65 billion in capital expenditures for 2025 to expand its AI infrastructure, alongside increasing AI-related hires. The company also anticipates total expenses for 2025 to be between $114 billion and $119 billion, up from $95 billion in 2024.

Jeremy Goldman, principal analyst at eMarketer, noted that while Meta’s fourth-quarter results were strong, the key issue going into 2025 is whether its substantial AI investments will pay off. He highlighted that Meta’s family daily active people (DAP) metric, which tracks unique users who open any of its apps in a day, grew by 5% year-over-year to 3.35 billion.

Meta’s results came after DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, launched new models that outperformed top U.S. competitors at a fraction of the cost, fueling concerns about the sustainability of U.S. AI business models and triggering a tech stock selloff. Zuckerberg acknowledged the challenges posed by DeepSeek but said it was too early to determine how its global impact would affect Meta’s AI strategy. He added that Meta’s AI teams were already incorporating insights from DeepSeek’s models into their work.

Meta continues to face financial losses in its metaverse-focused Reality Labs unit, which, while exceeding sales expectations, still reported a $5 billion loss in Q4. Despite these losses, Zuckerberg believes the long-term business potential of AI will become evident after 2025.

Meta’s hefty investment in AI includes plans to acquire more of Nvidia’s AI chips and develop custom silicon to train AI systems for better feed recommendations by next year. CFO Susan Li confirmed the company’s goal to use its own chips for these AI tasks. Meta’s continued investment in AI is part of its broader strategy to enhance user experiences across its platforms, while also aiming for cost reductions in AI model development.