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Investors Brace for China-Taiwan Conflict Risks, But See No Safe Hedge

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Foreign investors are increasingly forced to factor in the once-unthinkable: the possibility of China invading Taiwan, a scenario made more plausible amid rising U.S.-China tensions under President Donald Trump and a new wave of global trade nationalism. Yet, despite heightened geopolitical anxiety, investors see little to no viable strategy for hedging against a full-scale conflict over the democratically governed island.

“You can’t settle any trades, the currency might disappear altogether… you either carry on like it’s business as usual, or stay away,” said Mukesh Dave, CIO of Aravali Asset Management.

War or Status Quo: A Binary Outlook

Investors now view the China-Taiwan standoff as a binary risk:

  • War, which would likely obliterate Taiwan’s status as a stable investment market.

  • Peace, maintaining the status quo under continued diplomatic ambiguity.

Rising Odds and Market Reaction

  • The Polymarket platform now pegs the odds of an invasion at 12%, up from near zero earlier in the year.

  • Taiwan stock outflows totalled nearly $11 billion in 2024, fueled in part by U.S. tariffs.

  • Taiwan’s benchmark index (.TWII) is down 6% year-to-date.

Even Goldman Sachs’ Cross-Strait Risk Index, which tracks media references to tensions, has been steadily climbing since Trump’s election win in late 2024.

“If aggression occurs, the investment decision becomes binary: stay exposed and absorb extreme volatility, or exit swiftly to preserve capital,” said Steve Lawrence, CIO of Balfour Capital Group.

TSMC at the Heart of the Dilemma

The central pillar of Taiwan’s market remains Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC):

  • Valued as the crown jewel of the global chip industry

  • Supplies giants like Apple and Nvidia

  • Has been both a market driver and a geopolitical flashpoint, especially as Trump’s tariff policies increasingly target advanced tech

“TSMC is so big that the expectation is the U.S. will defend Taiwan — and defend it strongly,” said Dave.

However, Trump’s inconsistent tariff maneuvers, including temporary delays for negotiation leverage, have spooked investors and underscored Taiwan’s exposure to external political will.

Diverging Views on Risk

While global investors appear increasingly concerned about cross-strait instability, some local voices remain sceptical:

“We shouldn’t interpret this from a geopolitical risk perspective. The key issue is the tariffs,” said Li Fang-kuo, chairman of Uni-President’s securities advisory unit in Taiwan.

Others, like Rich Nuzum, global strategist at Mercer, recommend broad diversification and crisis stress-testing as the only realistic tools for institutional clients.

“There is no hedge for war,” Dave noted plainly. “But there is stress-testing for fear.”

With Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te pledging peace and Beijing accusing him of separatism, tensions remain unresolved. Investors face a stark choice: stay exposed to Taiwan’s tech-driven growth, or exit amid escalating uncertainty.

ASM to Pass Tariff Costs to Customers, Maintains Competitive Edge

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ASM International, Europe’s second-largest semiconductor equipment supplier, announced it will pass on any tariff-related cost increases to customers and the broader value chain. In a meeting with Bank of America analysts, ASM’s CEO and CFO emphasized that the company’s manufacturing flexibility ensures it won’t be at a disadvantage compared to global peers.

Key Points:

  • ASM said it would adjust pricing to offset potential cost pressures from U.S. trade tariffs, a strategy aligned with competitors like ASML, which previously stated that U.S. chipmakers would bear the bulk of such costs.

  • The Dutch company manufactures wafer fab processing equipment, vital for chipmakers like Intel and TSMC as they adopt next-gen Gate-All-Around transistor designs.

  • In other areas, ASM competes with major U.S. firms like Applied Materials and LAM Research, and is noted to be more exposed to the U.S. market than other European peers such as ASML and BE Semiconductor.

Market Outlook:

ASM also provided a bullish forecast for China, saying Chinese sales could hit the high end—or exceed—their 2025 guidance. The company previously estimated that China would represent between 20–29% of its total sales in 2025.

This positive outlook aligns with ASML’s recent commentary, which noted stronger-than-expected Chinese demand in its own Q1 report.

Despite rising geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions, ASM appears confident in navigating the shifting global semiconductor landscape, leveraging pricing power, regional flexibility, and strong demand from Asia.

Computex 2024 to Spotlight AI Innovations, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang Takes Center Stage

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Taiwan’s Computex trade show, set for May 20–23, will once again shine a spotlight on artificial intelligence, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang expected to headline the event. With 1,400 exhibitors lined up, this year’s focus extends beyond AI-powered devices to global economic shifts and the geopolitical implications of U.S. tariffs.

Huang, known for sparking “Jensanity” at last year’s event, will deliver the keynote speech Monday. He’s anticipated to announce expanded partnerships with leading Taiwanese AI server manufacturers like Foxconn and Quanta. Analysts believe Huang may also reference recent U.S. policy changes, including trade tariffs and the ongoing effort to reduce supply chain dependence on China.

“Obviously, Nvidia relies a lot on the Taiwanese ecosystem to deliver,” said Ian Cutress, chief analyst at More Than Moore. Nvidia recently pledged to produce $500 billion worth of AI servers in the U.S. over the next four years, in collaboration with TSMC, Foxconn, and Wistron.

Other tech giants will also make major appearances:

  • Qualcomm will present developments in AI PCs.

  • MediaTek is set to unveil its strategy for edge and cloud AI.

  • AMD will showcase advancements in gaming and AI-powered personal computing.

  • Intel’s new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, while skipping a public speech, will meet privately with key Taiwanese partners.

  • Advantech, a leader in industrial computing, returns after a decade to reveal new AI systems for business applications.

The event arrives amid concerns over tightened export controls on advanced AI chips to China and heightened pressure from the U.S. to relocate manufacturing stateside. These dynamics have shifted the industry’s focus from traditional B2C electronics to enterprise-level AI and industrial innovation.

“Taiwan has also changed,” said Advantech Chairman K.C. Liu. “The industry has shifted toward AI. It’s no longer enough to focus solely on consumer goods.”

Computex 2024 is expected to serve not only as a showcase for the latest AI breakthroughs but also as a barometer of how companies are navigating complex global supply chains and political risks in the tech sector.