Amazon Prime Day to Boost U.S. Online Sales to $23.8 Billion, Adobe Forecasts

Online sales in the U.S. are projected to reach $23.8 billion during Amazon’s extended 96-hour Prime Day event from July 8 to 11, marking a 28.4% increase compared to last year, according to Adobe Analytics. This surge reflects consumers’ eagerness for strong discounts, especially on back-to-school items like apparel and electronics.

Adobe highlighted that this sales volume is equivalent to “two Black Fridays,” noting that shoppers are increasingly using generative AI tools to hunt for deals and get an early start on their back-to-school shopping. The expansion of Prime Day from 48 to 96 hours also responds to growing competition from retailers like Walmart and Target, who are launching their own promotions during the same period.

Consumers are expected to “trade up” by purchasing higher-priced items such as electronics, sporting goods, and appliances, while choosing more budget-friendly options in categories like home, garden, and groceries. Clothing discounts are forecast to deepen to 24%, up from 20% last year, while electronics discounts may slightly decrease to 22%.

Back-to-school essentials, including backpacks, lunchboxes, headphones, and computers, are also expected to see sales growth. Additionally, the use of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) payment options is anticipated to rise slightly to 8% of online spending, up from 7.6% last year.

Adobe’s forecast is based on analysis of 1 trillion visits to U.S. ecommerce sites, covering 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories.