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Britain Forecasted to Reach Peak Gasoline This Year as Electric Vehicles Gain Traction

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Britain is set to reach a milestone in 2024, with the country expected to hit “peak petrol” — a moment when the number of gasoline-powered cars will begin to significantly decline, signaling a shift towards electric vehicles (EVs).

According to a report published by Auto Trader, the number of gasoline-powered cars on British roads is forecast to drop nearly by half over the next decade as drivers increasingly switch to EVs. In 2024, there are expected to be 18.7 million gasoline cars, a number projected to fall to 11.1 million by 2034.

Meanwhile, the number of EVs on the roads is expected to skyrocket from 1.25 million in 2024 to 13.7 million by 2034. The EV share of new car sales is projected to increase from 18% in 2024 to 23% in 2025, although this still falls short of the U.K. government’s target of 28% under the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate.

“Peak petrol marks a genuine turning point for the U.K.,” said Ian Plummer of Auto Trader. “Over the next decade, we expect a seismic shift in British motoring as the number of petrol cars falls sharply and EVs take a larger share.”

Despite challenges such as the introduction of ZEV targets and supply constraints, Plummer noted that strong demand for used cars continues.

ZEV Mandate and Industry Pressures

The U.K.’s ZEV mandate requires that at least 22% of new cars sold be zero-emission vehicles, with the target set to rise to 28% in 2025, 80% by 2030, and 100% by 2035. However, the mandate has faced criticism, particularly as the cost of EVs remains high, leading to concerns over the industry’s ability to meet targets without putting businesses at risk.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has warned that government targets could harm the industry’s viability and job security, citing recent closures like Stellantis’ Vauxhall van factory in Luton, which threatens over 1,000 jobs.

Despite these concerns, 14 NGOs and campaign groups sent an open letter urging the U.K. government to uphold the ZEV mandate, arguing that it remains one of the country’s most significant measures for reducing carbon emissions.

A U.K. government spokesperson confirmed that a consultation will be launched soon to explore how to best support the industry in reaching its target of phasing out internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030. The government has also allocated £2 billion ($2.54 billion) to support domestic manufacturing during the transition and committed over £300 million to boost EV adoption.

Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida Faces Mounting Pressure Amid Automaker’s Struggles

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Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida is under intense scrutiny as the automaker grapples with declining sales, job cuts, and strategic missteps in its critical markets, including the United States and China. The company, once a leader in electric vehicles (EVs), is now struggling to recover its footing amidst industry-wide disruptions and internal management challenges.

A Crisis in Leadership

In an October meeting with hundreds of Nissan managers, Uchida delivered stark news about the company’s worsening financial position. Weak sales in North America and China were cited as primary factors, alongside the absence of gasoline-electric hybrids in the U.S. market. Nissan’s decision to go “all-in” on EVs in the U.S. left it vulnerable as demand for hybrids surged due to high EV costs and limited charging infrastructure.

Despite being aware of this demand, Nissan delayed adapting its strategy, leading to missed opportunities. The company has sold its e-Power hybrids in Japan since 2016 but will not introduce a plug-in hybrid in the U.S. until March 2026.

“We weren’t able to foresee the rapid rise in demand for hybrids,” Uchida admitted at a November earnings conference, acknowledging management misjudgments.

Restructuring and Cost-Cutting Measures

To address these challenges, Uchida has pledged to cut 9,000 jobs, reduce global production capacity by 20%, and save $2.6 billion in costs. The company has already seen 1,000 U.S. employees accept early retirement and is considering further cuts in Thailand and China, where underutilized factories may be closed.

Nissan’s joint-venture plant in Mexico, COMPAS, is a likely target for downsizing. The facility, shared with Mercedes-Benz, has been operating far below its 230,000-vehicle annual capacity, producing only about 50,000 vehicles.

The Sunderland plant in the UK, however, is expected to remain operational due to recent upgrades. Weakness in the yen has also made Japan a relatively cost-effective manufacturing base, reducing the likelihood of significant cuts there.

Market Challenges and Missed Opportunities

Nissan has struggled to maintain its position in key markets. The company’s market share in China, once a stronghold, has eroded as it failed to keep up with shifting consumer preferences for futuristic-looking hybrids. Similarly, in the U.S., its EV strategy faltered when post-pandemic consumer spending slowed, and hybrids gained popularity.

The Ariya, Nissan’s much-anticipated EV, faced production delays and missed out on a $7,500 U.S. tax credit due to being manufactured in Japan rather than North America.

Nissan’s global sales fell to 3.3 million vehicles in 2022, a 40% decline from 2017 levels. The company’s stock has also plummeted 70% in the last decade, erasing $30 billion in value.

Internal Turmoil and Activist Pressure

Since the 2018 arrest of former chairman Carlos Ghosn, Nissan has been plagued by leadership instability. Uchida is now facing scrutiny from activist investors such as Singapore-based Effissimo Capital Management and Hong Kong’s Oasis Management, who have built stakes in the company.

The CEO has also been criticized internally for his handling of the company’s recovery and strategic direction. Analysts have questioned Nissan’s decision-making for over a year, particularly regarding the lack of hybrids in the U.S. market.

Future Prospects

Nissan is making efforts to pivot. The company plans to launch 34 hybrid and EV models globally by 2030, including a plug-in hybrid for the U.S. by 2026. Additionally, it is exploring partnerships, such as a potential long-term collaboration with Honda on batteries and research.

Despite the challenges, Uchida remains resolute. “I am determined and committed to fulfill my duty as CEO,” he stated during a recent press conference. However, with declining sales, intensifying competition from Tesla and BYD, and increasing scrutiny from stakeholders, the road ahead for both Uchida and Nissan remains uncertain.

GM to Sell Stake in Battery Cell Plant to LG Energy Solution for $1 Billion

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General Motors (GM) has announced its decision to sell its stake in a $2.6 billion electric vehicle (EV) battery cell plant in Lansing, Michigan, to its joint venture partner, LG Energy Solution (LGES). The Detroit-based automaker expects to recoup approximately $1 billion from the sale, which is part of a nonbinding agreement between the two companies. This transaction is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2024.

The Lansing facility, a 2.8 million-square-foot plant, is nearly finished and was initially planned to be the third battery cell production site for their joint venture, Ultium Cells LLC, following operational plants in Ohio and Tennessee. The plant was first announced in January 2022, and GM and LGES formed their partnership five years ago.

GM’s decision to sell its stake is driven by the need to adjust production to meet current EV market conditions, including slower-than-expected consumer demand and uncertainties surrounding federal incentives for EV manufacturing and sales in the U.S. under President-elect Donald Trump. However, GM emphasized that the sale would not affect its overall stake in the joint venture or its plans for a separate joint venture with LGES competitor Samsung SDI.

Paul Jacobson, GM’s Chief Financial Officer, expressed confidence that the deal would enable the automaker to continue growing in the EV market efficiently. He stated, “We believe we have the right cell and manufacturing capabilities in place to grow with the EV market in a capital efficient manner.” Jacobson added that the sale would also help LG Energy Solution meet growing demand by utilizing the nearly ready Lansing facility.

Following the sale, LGES will gain immediate access to the Lansing plant to begin installing equipment, as the facility prepares for operations, expected by the end of 2023. The plant currently employs around 100 people.

In addition to the sale, GM also revealed it is extending its 14-year battery technology partnership with LGES to develop prismatic cells, an emerging battery form factor. Prismatic cells, which are flat and rectangular, offer more efficient space utilization within battery modules and packs. GM highlighted that these cells could reduce the weight and cost of EVs while simplifying the manufacturing process.

Kurt Kelty, GM’s vice president of battery cell and pack, noted, “We’re focused on optimizing our battery technology by developing the right battery chemistries and form factors to improve EV performance, enhance safety, and reduce costs.” The expansion of GM’s battery technologies will also include prismatic cells in addition to its current Ultium pouch-style cells.