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Samsung Electronics Faces 39% Drop in Q2 Profit Amid Weak AI Chip Sales

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Samsung Electronics is expected to report a 39% decline in its second-quarter operating profit, largely due to delays in supplying advanced memory chips to AI chip leader Nvidia, industry analysts said. The South Korean tech giant is forecast to announce an operating profit of 6.3 trillion won ($4.62 billion) for April to June, marking its lowest earnings in six quarters, according to LSEG SmartEStimate.

This downturn has raised concerns about Samsung’s ability to compete with rivals like SK Hynix and Micron in the rapidly growing market for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips used in artificial intelligence data centers. While its competitors have seen strong demand, Samsung’s growth has been limited by its heavy reliance on the China market, where U.S. export restrictions have curbed sales of advanced chips.

Analysts point out that Samsung’s latest HBM chips, specifically the HBM3E 12-high version, have not yet received Nvidia’s certification, slowing supply to the U.S. AI chip leader. Ryu Young-ho, senior analyst at NH Investment & Securities, noted that Samsung’s shipments to Nvidia are unlikely to be significant in 2025. Samsung has, however, started supplying the new chip to AMD since June.

Despite challenges in the chip segment, Samsung’s smartphone sales remain steady, supported by stockpiling ahead of potential U.S. tariffs on imported devices. Nonetheless, ongoing U.S. trade policies, including proposed tariffs on non-U.S.-made smartphones and possible restrictions on technology exports to Samsung’s Chinese plants, continue to create business uncertainty.

Samsung’s shares have underperformed this year compared to the KOSPI index, rising about 19% against the KOSPI’s 27.3% increase. As of Monday, Samsung shares dipped 1.9%, while the KOSPI rose 0.3%.

US May Target Samsung, Hynix, and TSMC Operations in China by Revoking Trade Authorizations

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The U.S. Department of Commerce is considering revoking authorizations granted in recent years to major chipmakers Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC that allow them to receive U.S. goods and technology at their manufacturing plants in China, sources familiar with the matter said. This potential move would complicate operations for these foreign semiconductor firms in China, where they produce chips used across many industries.

While the likelihood of the U.S. actually withdrawing these authorizations remains uncertain, officials view the tactic as a contingency if the current trade truce between the U.S. and China deteriorates. A White House official emphasized that the U.S. is “just laying the groundwork” and expressed confidence the trade agreement would continue, including the agreed supply of rare earth minerals from China. The official clarified that “there is currently no intention of deploying this tactic,” but it remains a tool in case bilateral relations worsen.

Following early reports, shares of U.S. semiconductor equipment suppliers that serve Chinese plants dropped: KLA Corp fell 2.4%, Lam Research declined 1.9%, and Applied Materials sank 2%. Conversely, shares of Micron Technology, a key competitor to Samsung and SK Hynix in memory chips, rose 1.5%.

TSMC declined to comment, while Samsung and SK Hynix did not respond to requests for comment. Lam Research, KLA, and Applied Materials also did not immediately respond.

Background: In October 2022, the U.S. imposed broad restrictions on chipmaking equipment exports to China but provided foreign firms like Samsung and SK Hynix with letters authorizing shipments. In 2023 and 2024, these companies received “Validated End User” (VEU) status, which allows them to obtain U.S.-controlled products more quickly and reliably without needing multiple export licenses. However, VEU status comes with conditions such as equipment prohibitions and reporting requirements.

A Commerce Department spokesperson said chipmakers would still be able to operate in China if the authorizations are revoked. The enforcement mechanisms would align with licensing rules for other semiconductor firms exporting to China, ensuring the U.S. applies an equal and reciprocal approach.

Industry insiders warn that stricter U.S. controls could unintentionally benefit Chinese domestic competitors by making it harder for foreign companies to receive equipment, calling such a move “a gift” to China’s semiconductor industry.

Trump Administration Renegotiates Biden-Era Chips Act Grants, Says Commerce Secretary Lutnick

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The Trump administration is actively renegotiating semiconductor manufacturing grants originally awarded under the Biden-era CHIPS and Science Act, according to U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Speaking before the Senate Appropriations Committee on Wednesday, Lutnick indicated that some of these awards may be significantly altered or even cancelled as part of efforts to secure better terms for U.S. taxpayers.

“Some of the Biden-era grants just seemed overly generous, and we’ve been able to renegotiate them,” Lutnick told lawmakers, emphasizing that the renegotiations aim to deliver greater value to the American public. “All the deals are getting better, and the only deals that are not getting done are deals that should have never been done in the first place.”

$52.7 Billion CHIPS Act Under Review

The $52.7 billion CHIPS and Science Act, signed by President Biden in 2022, was designed to bolster domestic semiconductor manufacturing and reduce reliance on Asia, particularly Taiwan and South Korea. Under the program, billions of dollars in grants were awarded to both U.S. and foreign chipmakers, including Taiwan’s TSMC, South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix, as well as U.S.-based Intel and Micron.

Though many of these awards were signed before Biden left office, most of the funds have yet to be fully disbursed. The grant payments are generally structured to be released as companies meet specific production and investment milestones tied to their U.S. plant expansions.

TSMC Award Revised Amid Expanding U.S. Investment

Lutnick cited Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) as an example of successful renegotiation. Under the original agreement, TSMC was awarded $6 billion to support its U.S. manufacturing expansion. Lutnick revealed that TSMC subsequently increased its planned investment from $65 billion to $165 billion, while still receiving the same $6 billion in federal funds.

Although TSMC confirmed in March that it would invest an additional $100 billion in the U.S., the company has not commented on whether the new investment was directly tied to renegotiated CHIPS Act terms.

White House Seeking Delays and New Terms

The renegotiation efforts are not new. In February, Reuters reported that the White House was already seeking to renegotiate several awards and delay some upcoming disbursements to ensure better returns on government spending.

Lutnick’s comments suggest that the Trump administration intends to continue scrutinizing past agreements to maximize taxpayer value and may block deals it deems wasteful or excessive.

AI Computing Capacity Also a Focus

During the hearing, Lutnick also addressed concerns about the global race for artificial intelligence computing capacity. He emphasized the administration’s commitment to ensuring that over 50% of global AI compute power remains based in the United States. This statement comes amid criticism of a Trump administration deal allowing the United Arab Emirates to purchase advanced American AI chips, raising fears about exporting critical technology.