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Samsung Q4 Earnings Expected to Be Hit by Nvidia AI Chip Supply Delay

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Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), the world’s largest memory chip maker, is forecasted to report slowed profit growth in the fourth quarter, as it struggles to meet Nvidia’s (NVDA.O) soaring demand for AI chips. Despite an expected operating profit of 8.2 trillion won ($5.6 billion) in the quarter ending December, up from 2.8 trillion won a year ago, this figure represents a decline from the previous quarter’s 9.18 trillion won.

Analysts have recently revised their earnings forecasts downward, with some projecting Samsung’s operating profit to fall below 8 trillion won. A key issue has been delays in Samsung’s supply of high-end AI chips to Nvidia, which has continued to impact Samsung’s earnings, despite an October apology from the company for its third-quarter performance and an earlier pledge to address the chip shortage.

In November, Samsung reshuffled its chip division leadership, naming its chip division chief co-CEO and granting him direct control over the struggling memory chip business. Meanwhile, Samsung’s shares fell 32% last year, underperforming the broader market’s 10% decline.

Contrastingly, SK Hynix (000660.KS), a major supplier of advanced AI memory chips to Nvidia, is expected to report record earnings for the fourth quarter, benefiting from strong demand for its products.

The broader semiconductor market is facing additional pressure, with weaker demand for traditional chips used in smartphones and PCs, and rising competition from Chinese chipmakers, leading to declining chip prices. DRAM prices, particularly DDR4 chips used in personal computers, have dropped as much as 13% in Q4 and are expected to fall another 15% in the current quarter, according to TrendForce.

The South Korean won’s depreciation in December to its weakest level in 15 years, fueled by political instability and concerns over U.S. tariffs under President-elect Trump, has provided some relief in the form of increased overseas earnings, but this has not been enough to offset weak chip prices.

Samsung is expected to release detailed results later in January, offering a breakdown of its earnings by business segment.

Samsung’s Q4 Profit Misses Expectations as Chip Issues and Rising Costs Weigh on Earnings

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Samsung Electronics has reported a significant shortfall in its preliminary fourth-quarter operating profit, primarily due to challenges in its semiconductor business. The South Korean tech giant estimates an operating profit of 6.5 trillion won ($4.5 billion) for the three months ending Dec. 31, well below analyst expectations of 7.7 trillion won. Although the expected profit represents a 131% year-on-year increase, it marks a 29% decline compared to the previous quarter.

The company’s earnings were affected by rising research and development (R&D) costs and the ramp-up of manufacturing capacity for advanced semiconductors. Additionally, weak demand for conventional memory chips used in PCs and mobile phones further contributed to the dip in profits.

Samsung’s efforts to provide high-end chips to Nvidia have also posed challenges. Unlike its rival SK Hynix, which is Nvidia’s main supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips used in AI GPUs, Samsung has struggled to meet the tech giant’s chip requirements. Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, mentioned that Samsung needs to “engineer a new design” to supply HBM chips, although he expressed confidence in Samsung’s ability to meet this challenge.

The disappointing earnings also extended to Samsung’s logic chip division, which designs and manufactures chips for mobile phones. Analysts estimate losses could have widened to about $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter due to lower production yields and reduced demand for mobile devices, including Samsung’s premium foldable phones.

Despite the weak earnings, Samsung’s shares saw a slight uptick, with analysts noting that the company’s woes were already factored into stock prices. Competition in the chip and mobile sectors remains intense, and analysts are cautiously optimistic that chip demand may have bottomed out.

 

Asian Chip Stocks Mostly Rise Despite New U.S. Semiconductor Export Curbs on China

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INTRODUCTION

On Tuesday, major Asian chip stocks, excluding those in China, saw positive gains despite the announcement of a new round of U.S. semiconductor export restrictions targeting China’s chip production capabilities. The Biden administration’s latest move aims to hinder China’s access to advanced semiconductor technology that could potentially aid its military advancements.

KEY POINTS

Performance of Asian Chip Stocks

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC):
    The world’s largest contract chip supplier saw a 2.4% increase in its stock price.
  • Japanese Chip Stocks:
    Several Japanese chip-related companies experienced gains:

    • Tokyo Electron rose 4.7%.
    • Lasertec climbed 6.7%.
    • Advantest gained 3.9%.
    • Renesas Electronics advanced 2.2%.
  • Softbank:
    Softbank, which holds a stake in the British chip designer Arm, saw its shares rise by 3.6%.

Impact on South Korean Chip Makers

  • Samsung and SK Hynix:
    Despite the new U.S. restrictions, shares of Samsung Electronics rose by 0.9%, and SK Hynix saw an increase of 1.8%.

    • Derrick Irwin, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, stated that the impact on high-bandwidth memory chips from South Korean players would be limited. He believes that these companies could shift demand to markets like the U.S., minimizing the effect of the curbs.

Details of U.S. Export Restrictions

  • Targeted Companies:
    The U.S. Department of Commerce imposed restrictions on 140 new companies, including major Chinese firms like Naura Technology Group, Piotech, and ACM Research. These companies are now on the U.S. export control list.

    • In China, Naura Technology’s shares fell 3%, while ACM Research dropped by 1%. Piotech, however, saw a 1% rise.
    • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), China’s largest chipmaker, saw a 1.5% drop in Hong Kong.
  • Scope of Restrictions:
    The new U.S. controls also include restrictions on 24 types of manufacturing equipment and three types of software tools essential for semiconductor production.

    • Reason for Restrictions: U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo emphasized that these measures were designed to impair China’s ability to produce advanced technologies that pose a national security risk to the U.S.

Concerns and Compliance Issues

  • Huawei and TSMC:
    A report last month raised questions about the effectiveness of U.S. chip restrictions after a TSMC-made chip was found in a Huawei product.

    • In response, the U.S. has implemented new “red flag guidance” to address compliance concerns and introduced several regulatory changes to enhance the effectiveness of its semiconductor controls.

CONCLUSION

Despite the recent U.S. export curbs targeting China’s semiconductor sector, major Asian chip stocks largely rose, with companies like TSMC and key Japanese players leading the charge. While the new restrictions may impact Chinese companies and South Korean chipmakers to some extent, analysts suggest that the overall effect on the broader market could be limited, as companies pivot to other markets.