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J.P. Morgan Revises Stablecoin Growth Forecast, Cuts Projections by Half

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J.P. Morgan has lowered its forecast for the stablecoin market, predicting growth to reach only $500 billion by 2028—half the size projected by some analysts. The investment bank called trillion-dollar estimates “far too optimistic,” citing limited mainstream adoption of dollar-pegged stablecoins beyond crypto trading.

While stablecoins have attracted fintechs and banks seeking faster payments and settlements, their actual use in everyday transactions remains minimal. J.P. Morgan estimates that stablecoin payments account for just 6% of demand, roughly $15 billion, with the majority of activity concentrated in crypto trading, decentralized finance, and collateral usage.

This cautious outlook contrasts sharply with earlier projections from Standard Chartered, which expected the market to grow to $2 trillion by 2028, and Bernstein, which forecasted a $4 trillion market over the next decade.

J.P. Morgan noted several challenges limiting stablecoin adoption outside crypto markets, including a lack of broad use cases, fragmented regulation, and the global focus on national digital currencies or improvements to existing payment systems.

In line with this trend, China’s central bank continues to promote the digital yuan (e-CNY) for international use, while Ant Group—Alibaba’s affiliate—plans to seek a license for stablecoin issuance in Hong Kong. However, J.P. Morgan emphasized that the success of platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay, or the rise of the e-CNY, do not necessarily predict stablecoin expansion.

“The idea that stablecoins will replace traditional money for everyday use is still far from reality,” the bank said.

Amundi Warns U.S. Stablecoin Policy Risks Destabilizing Global Payment Systems

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Europe’s largest asset manager, Amundi, has expressed concerns over the potential destabilizing effects of the U.S. GENIUS Act, which aims to establish a regulatory framework for U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins. The policy could accelerate the adoption of dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies worldwide, triggering significant shifts in money flows and potentially undermining the global payment system.

The GENIUS Act, passed by the U.S. Senate and expected to be approved soon by the House and President Donald Trump, mandates stablecoins be pegged to the U.S. dollar. JPMorgan estimates that stablecoins in circulation could double to $500 billion in the coming years, with some forecasts reaching $2 trillion. The increase in stablecoin use would drive demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, providing fiscal benefits for the U.S. but raising concerns about weakening the dollar’s international position.

Vincent Mortier, Amundi’s Chief Investment Officer, highlighted that stablecoins might send a message that the dollar is losing strength, especially as over 80% of stablecoin transactions occur outside the U.S. This raises fears about “dollarization,” where foreign economies increasingly depend on the dollar without direct banking ties to the U.S., which could threaten their monetary sovereignty.

European officials have also voiced alarm. Italy’s Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti labeled U.S. stablecoin policies as a greater threat to Europe’s financial stability than trade tensions. Similarly, the Bank for International Settlements warned about stablecoins’ risks to monetary sovereignty, transparency, and the potential for capital flight from emerging markets.

Mortier noted that stablecoins could act like “quasi-banks” as users treat them like deposits redeemable on demand. Their growing use as direct payment methods could further disrupt traditional banking and payment infrastructures, increasing risks to global financial stability.

Though Amundi currently holds no crypto assets, Mortier remains cautious about stablecoins, emphasizing their possible negative consequences on the global payment ecosystem.

Chinese Tech Giants Lobby for Offshore Yuan Stablecoin to Challenge U.S. Dollar Dominance

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Chinese technology leaders JD.com and Ant Group are pressing the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to authorize yuan-pegged stablecoins issued in Hong Kong, aiming to boost the international use of the Chinese currency and counter the growing influence of U.S. dollar-linked stablecoins. This push reflects a strategic effort to expand the yuan’s role in global digital finance and cross-border payments amid increasing competition with the U.S.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to stable assets like fiat currencies. Currently, over 99% of stablecoins are linked to the U.S. dollar, and their blockchain-based technology allows fast, low-cost, and borderless transactions, potentially disrupting traditional financial systems. The global stablecoin market is valued at about $247 billion and is expected to grow to $2 trillion by 2028.

Both JD.com and Ant Group plan to launch stablecoins backed by the Hong Kong dollar following the region’s new legislation effective August 1. However, they argue that yuan-based stablecoins issued offshore—particularly in Hong Kong—are urgently needed to promote the yuan’s internationalization. This would mark a significant policy shift in Beijing’s stance on cryptocurrencies, which were banned domestically in 2021.

Industry voices, such as Wang Yongli of Digital China Information Service Group and former Bank of China official, highlight the strategic risks of the yuan falling behind the dollar in cross-border payments. Currently, the yuan’s share of global payments has dropped to 2.89%, far below the dollar’s dominant 48.46%.

The lobbying coincides with Hong Kong and the U.S. racing to establish regulatory frameworks for stablecoins. Chinese exporters increasingly use dollar-pegged stablecoins like Tether (USDT) due to capital controls and currency volatility risks at home, fueling demand for alternative payment tools.

While the PBOC has yet to officially respond, advisors and officials acknowledge the challenges posed by the digital currency surge and have hinted that offshore yuan stablecoins are under consideration. Ant Group is preparing to seek stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong and Singapore, with JD.com planning similar applications globally to facilitate foreign exchange and cross-border payments.

JD.com also points out that pegging stablecoins to the Hong Kong dollar—tied to the U.S. dollar—does little to promote the yuan’s use, thus proposing a yuan stablecoin issuance pilot first in Hong Kong, then expanded to China’s free trade zones, a suggestion reportedly well received by regulators.