Bill Gates’ Prognosis: How AI Will Propel Medical Breakthroughs
Bill Gates holds 2023 close to his heart, not just because it marked the arrival of his first grandchild but also due to the mainstream embrace of artificial intelligence, catalyzed notably by the advent of ChatGPT. Reflecting on this momentous shift, Gates envisions a world positively transformed by AI, especially for the generation his granddaughter is entering.
As a luminary in the tech realm, having steered Microsoft through multiple technological epochs, Gates foresees 2024 as a pivotal year for artificial intelligence. In particular, he anticipates AI’s substantial impact in global health, an arena where Gates and the eponymous foundation have dedicated years of effort.
In a recent comprehensive blog post on GatesNote, Gates articulated his thoughts on AI’s trajectory, stating, “We now have a clearer understanding of AI’s capabilities to autonomously handle certain tasks and where it will function as a supportive aid.” He emphasizes the escalating role of AI in enhancing educational access, addressing mental health concerns, and more. Gate’s commitment to ensuring AI serves as a tool to diminish societal disparities drives his determination to leverage this technology for global betterment, striving to mitigate rather than exacerbate the prevailing inequalities worldwide.
The year of AI
The past year has witnessed a seismic shift in the realm of artificial intelligence, with generative AI spearheading an era of unprecedented innovation. This revolutionary technology, known as Gen AI, surpasses conventional AI methodologies by autonomously generating various media forms, including text, images, speech, and video, drawing insights from its analysis of intricate data patterns.
The limelight fell upon Gen AI following the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in late 2022, although earlier glimpses of AI’s potential had surfaced through AI-powered virtual assistants like Alexa and smart home controls.
ChatGPT emerged as a frontrunner among a barrage of generative AI tools released in the past year, democratizing AI usage for anyone with a smartphone or laptop, enabling the generation of diverse information and imagery. Trained on extensive datasets, these tools exhibit the capability to produce original responses, albeit with varying degrees of success. OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, revealed that more than 100 million users engage with ChatGPT weekly, backed by significant investments from Microsoft, a key stakeholder in OpenAI.
Competitors in the AI landscape, including Google, are aggressively innovating, evident in Google’s introduction of the Gemini AI model to enhance its Bard AI chatbot in early December. Tech giants continue to integrate Gen AI functionalities into a spectrum of programs and devices, spanning search engines to smartphones, reshaping the technological landscape.
In 2023, investors poured a staggering sum of nearly $10 billion into Gen AI startups, marking a substantial leap from the $4.4 billion invested in the preceding year, as reported by GlobalData. However, despite its burgeoning popularity, reservations persist among users. Concerns linger over AI potentially displacing human roles and its propensity for disseminating erroneous information. Notably, Dictionary.com designated the term “hallucinate,” portraying AI-generated false information, as its word of the year.
Bill Gates envisions a rapid assimilation of AI into mainstream usage, foreseeing significant AI adoption among the general populace in high-income nations like the United States within 18 to 24 months. Simultaneously, he views 2024 as a pivotal juncture in this technological trajectory, marking a significant turning point in AI integration and its pervasive impact on society.
What Gates sees on the AI road ahead
Since stepping down as Microsoft CEO in 2000, Gates has focused on philanthropy, founding the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation with his now-former wife. It’s in areas related to his foundation’s work in global health where Gates sees AI becoming helpful in 2024.
Fighting antibiotic resistance: He cites an AI-powered tool under development at the Aurum Institute in Ghana that helps health workers prescribe antibiotics without contributing to antimicrobial resistance, where pathogens learn how to get past antibiotic defenses. The tool can comb through all the available information about antimicrobial resistance and suggest the best drug plan for a patient.
High-risk pregnancy help: A woman dies in childbirth every two minutes, Gates says. He’s hopeful that AI can combat this horrifying statistic. AI-powered ultrasounds can help identify pregnancy risks, and the Gates foundation is working to fund that process. Also, AI researchers at ARMMAN, an India-based nonprofit organization, are working on a large language model – the technology that underlies ChatGPT and other AI chatbots – that can help health workers treating high-risk pregnancies.
HIV risk assessment: Many people aren’t comfortable talking to a doctor about their sexual history, but that can be vital for assessing risk for diseases like HIV. Gates is excited about a South African chatbot called Your Choice, being developed by Sophie Pascoe of Wits Health Consortium. The chatbot acts as a nonjudgmental counselor that can provide round-the-clock advice, especially for vulnerable populations.
Quick access to medical records: While people in rich countries may have their medical records easily available, in other countries, many people don’t have a documented medical history, Gates says. This can hinder their medical treatment because their doctors need to know about allergies, past health issues and more. A Pakistani team is working on a voice-enabled mobile app that could make this easier, asking a series of questions and filling out a patient’s medical record with the answers.
Beyond global health advances
Gates also sees AI assisting in education, calling AI education tools “mindblowing,” as they are tailored to individual learners, and says they will “only get better.” He’s excited about how the technology can be localized to students in many different countries and cultural contexts.
Not everything on Gates’ mind is AI-related. He’s concerned about climate change, saying he’s “blown away by the passion from young climate activists,” and hopeful that 2024 will see more investment in innovations that will help those who are most affected by the climate crisis.
And he even plunges into the debate over nuclear energy. Gates notes that high-profile disasters such as Chernobyl in the 1980s and Three Mile Island in the late 1970s have spotlighted the risks, but over the past year, he’s seen a shift towards acceptance. He sees the once-bogeyman of the energy world as necessary to meet the world’s growing need for energy while eliminating carbon emissions.
From skeptic to enthusiast
A New York Times in early December noted that Gates was “long skeptical” of what AI could do. That changed in August 2022, when he saw a demonstration of OpenAI’s GPT-4, the large language model underlying ChatGPT. That sold Gates on the concept, and he helped Microsoft “move aggressively to capitalize on generative AI.”
Although Gates left Microsoft’s’s board in 2020, he’s still an adviser to its CEO Satya Nadella. Microsoft has plunged full-bore into the AI world, The company invested heavily in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, earlier this year. And it’s been adding the technology across its online services, including its Bing search engine.
The company also reimagined Windows 11 with the addition of Microsoft Copilot, which puts AI assistance always available on the Windows 11 desktop taskbar. Microsoft vice president Yusuf Mehdi calls it the most significant update to the operating system so far, and it works across multiple apps and mobile phones.
Even Gates struggles to adapt
In his year-end letter, Bill Gates draws parallels between the ascension of AI and the earlier emergence of the internet, email, and search engines, underscoring the rapid integration of once-foreign technologies into our daily routines. Gates envisions a comparable shift in societal integration with AI, akin to the transformation experienced with these technological advancements.
However, amidst his optimistic outlook, Gates candidly acknowledges the anticipated challenges in embracing AI, recounting a personal anecdote that elucidates this struggle. Expressing his intention to utilize AI tools for the foundation’s strategy reviews, where the task involves reviewing copious pages of briefing materials, Gates anticipated AI’s capacity to efficiently summarize this information for him. Yet, confronting the inertia of ingrained habits, he candidly admits to reverting to traditional review methods, conceding that breaking away from established routines proved more challenging than anticipated.
