Yazılar

Yellen Raises Concerns About China’s Cyber Activity in Meeting with Vice Premier He Lifeng

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held a virtual meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Monday, during which she raised serious concerns about “malicious cyber activity” attributed to Chinese state-sponsored actors, according to a Treasury Department statement. This follows the Treasury’s announcement last month of a significant breach involving Chinese hackers who compromised several of its computers after a security incident at its contractor, BeyondTrust, which provides cybersecurity services.

The breach is part of an ongoing series of cyberattacks on U.S. government agencies that have been blamed on Chinese state-sponsored hackers. Although a briefing on the breach has been requested by Congressional aides, no date has been set.

Despite the escalating cyber tensions, the Biden administration has made efforts to improve communication and manage the competitive dynamics between the U.S. and China, including the establishment of economic and financial working groups. During her discussion with He, Yellen expressed her grave concerns over the cyber activities and its negative impact on the bilateral relationship, describing the conversation as candid and constructive.

Additionally, the two officials reviewed economic developments in both countries and discussed progress in the working groups. Yellen reiterated her long-standing concerns regarding China’s non-market practices, policies, and industrial overcapacity, highlighting that these issues would continue to strain the U.S.-China economic relationship unless properly addressed.

During her visit to Beijing in April, Yellen similarly warned He about the need to manage industrial capacity to avoid worsening trade tensions. She also warned of the “significant consequences” Chinese companies would face if they supported Russia’s war against Ukraine.

With President-elect Donald Trump set to assume office on January 20, he has threatened to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports, including a 60% tax, which would be a significant escalation from tariffs introduced during his first term.

Lithium Prices Expected to Stabilize in 2025 Amid Mine Closures and China EV Sales

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Lithium prices are projected to stabilize in 2025 after experiencing a significant 86% drop over the past two years, according to analysts. The decline from the November 2022 peak has forced many global lithium mines to close, but as demand for electric vehicles (EVs) remains strong, particularly in China, analysts anticipate that this will help absorb the oversupply.

The global lithium glut, which reached nearly 150,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) last year, is expected to shrink by half in 2025. This is attributed to a reduction in supply as a result of mine closures and China’s robust support for the EV market, where sales are bolstered by government incentives.

In July 2024, China doubled EV subsidies, leading to a surge in EV sales, which exceeded 5 million vehicles by mid-December. This boost in sales helped drive a temporary rally in lithium prices in late 2024, and analysts expect continued price support throughout 2025 due to ongoing subsidies.

Cameron Hughes, a battery markets analyst at CRU Group, stated that the market surplus is expected to decrease significantly, leading to price recovery. David Merriman, research director at Project Blue, anticipates prices will stabilize at around $11,092 per metric ton in 2025, while Chinese broker Guotai Juan predicts a price range of 60,000 to 90,000 yuan ($8,184 to $12,276).

Despite this optimism, analysts warned that any significant price increases could be limited by the ability to quickly ramp up production at many closed mines if the market proves profitable. Additionally, potential changes in U.S. policy, such as new tariffs on EV battery imports from China or a reduction in domestic EV incentives under the incoming Trump administration, could pose risks to future lithium demand.

 

TSMC Fourth-Quarter Profit Expected to Jump 58% Due to AI Chip Demand Surge

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world’s leading producer of advanced chips for artificial intelligence (AI) applications, is set to report a 58% increase in fourth-quarter profit, driven by strong demand in the AI sector. The company, which counts Apple and Nvidia among its clients, is benefiting from the AI megatrend but faces challenges such as U.S. government technology restrictions on China and potential tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration.

Analysts estimate that TSMC will post a net profit of T$377.95 billion ($11.41 billion) for the quarter ending December 31, compared to T$238.7 billion in the same period the previous year. This projection follows TSMC’s recent revenue report, which exceeded market expectations. The company will release its revenue outlook in U.S. dollars during its quarterly earnings call on Thursday.

Arete Research analyst Brett Simpson believes TSMC’s growth in 2025 will continue to be driven by AI customers. He is optimistic that TSMC can establish a strong relationship with the incoming U.S. administration, especially given its $65 billion investment in three plants in Arizona. TSMC’s overseas expansion, however, is not expected to diminish its Taiwanese manufacturing base.

Fubon Financial’s Edward Chen noted that the company’s progress in Arizona, including chip yield rates, would be critical for its future performance. He also highlighted the uncertainty regarding how tariffs from the Trump administration may impact demand.

TSMC is expected to provide updates on its current quarter and full-year outlook during its earnings call, including capital expenditure plans. The company has already projected capital expenditure for 2024 to be slightly over $30 billion and indicated that 2025’s capital spending could surpass 2024 levels.

The AI boom has driven up TSMC’s stock, with the company’s shares soaring 81% last year, significantly outperforming the broader market’s 28.5% gain.