China is projected to experience its lowest number of new marriages since record-keeping began, with official data revealing a significant decline in marriage registrations amid a deepening demographic crisis. This trend poses serious challenges for Beijing, as a shrinking workforce and an aging population threaten the country’s economic stability.
In the first three quarters of 2024, approximately 4.74 million couples registered their marriages, marking a 16.6% decrease from the 5.69 million reported during the same period in 2023, according to data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs. This downward trajectory aligns with a broader trend since reaching a peak of over 13 million new marriages in 2013, and it is anticipated that marriages will fall below 2022’s record low of 6.83 million.
While there was a temporary rebound in marriages last year following the lifting of strict COVID-19 restrictions, this was largely viewed as a short-term spike driven by pent-up demand. The country has faced two consecutive years of population decline, with last year recording the lowest birth rate since the establishment of the People’s Republic in 1949. In 2022, India surpassed China to become the most populous nation in the world.
Chinese officials have identified a direct correlation between the decline in marriages and the plummeting birth rate. Social norms and governmental regulations complicate childbearing for unmarried couples, prompting officials to implement various measures aimed at reversing this trend. These include financial incentives, public awareness campaigns, and events such as blind dating and mass weddings to encourage young couples to marry and have children.
Additionally, efforts have been made to reduce the traditional “bride price,” which can hinder marriage prospects for many poorer men, particularly in rural areas. Since 2022, pilot programs initiated by China’s Family Planning Association have sought to cultivate a “new-era marriage and childbearing culture,” promoting the societal benefits of childbearing and encouraging young people to marry and start families at a suitable age.
However, these initiatives have not succeeded in persuading many young adults, who are facing high unemployment rates, rising living costs, and insufficient social welfare amid an economic downturn. As a result, many are delaying marriage and childbirth, with an increasing number choosing to forgo them altogether.
The decline in marriages and births is also attributed to decades of population control policies that have resulted in fewer young people of marriageable age. Although China ended its one-child policy in 2015, allowing for two children, and further expanded this to three children in 2021, both marriage and birth rates continue to drop.
Changing attitudes towards marriage, particularly among young women who are becoming more educated and financially independent, further complicate the situation. Many women are growing disillusioned with marriage due to prevalent workplace discrimination and traditional gender roles that often assign them the majority of childcare and household responsibilities.
In response to rising divorce rates, China implemented a mandatory 30-day “cooling-off” period for individuals filing for divorce in 2021, despite criticisms that this may complicate exits from unhappy or abusive relationships. In the first nine months of 2024, around 1.96 million couples registered for divorce, reflecting a slight decrease of 6,000 compared to the previous year.
China’s situation mirrors trends seen in other countries, such as Japan and South Korea, where falling marriage and birth rates have prompted the introduction of various incentives, including financial support and childcare subsidies, yet with limited effectiveness.