Safe-Haven Assets Surge Amid Escalating US-Russia Tensions Over Ukraine
Market Turmoil Following Putin’s Nuclear Doctrine Update
Safe-haven assets, including government bonds and the Japanese yen, experienced a sharp rally on Tuesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin updated the country’s nuclear doctrine amidst intensifying tensions with the United States over Ukraine.
Putin stated that Russia might consider deploying nuclear weapons if subjected to a conventional missile attack supported by a nuclear-armed state. This announcement follows the U.S. decision to permit Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles, known as ATACMS, for strikes deep into Russian territory.
Bond Yields Drop as Investors Seek Safety
Government bond yields fell as investors shifted toward safer options.
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 5 basis points to 4.3648%, hitting its lowest level in three weeks.
- Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell 7 basis points to 2.303%.
Michael Weidner, co-head of global fixed income at Lazard Asset Management, noted, “The market’s movement appears to be driven by this morning’s news about changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine.”
Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc Strengthen
The Japanese yen appreciated by 0.6% to 153.69 per dollar, bolstered not only by safe-haven demand but also by Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato’s remarks about addressing “excessive moves” in the yen’s exchange rate.
The Swiss franc also rose 0.4% against the euro, reflecting its status as a preferred haven in times of geopolitical uncertainty.
Gold Prices Rise, European and US Equities Slide
Gold gained 0.8%, trading at $2,634 per ounce, as investors sought stability amid the geopolitical tensions.
Conversely, equities suffered:
- The STOXX 600 index fell 1% to a three-month low.
- The eurozone equity volatility index spiked, reflecting heightened market anxiety.
- U.S. stock futures for the S&P 500 dropped 0.5%, indicating bearish sentiment in American markets.
Ukraine Conflict Escalates
Market reactions were further fueled by reports from Ukrainian agency RBC Ukraine claiming Kyiv’s first attack within Russia using U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles. This development heightened investor concerns over the potential for broader military escalation.
Ukraine’s sovereign dollar bonds lost nearly 2 cents in value, reflecting investor unease.
Broader Context and Political Developments
The tensions come as global investors await President-elect Donald Trump’s decision on his Treasury secretary pick, with candidates reportedly including Marc Rowan of Apollo Global Management and former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh.
The situation underscores the fragile state of international markets, with geopolitical risks driving significant shifts in asset allocations.
