China’s recent export ban on critical minerals, including antimony, has caused significant price increases and is expected to push antimony prices to new all-time highs. The ban, which also includes gallium and germanium, is part of China’s strategy to restrict the flow of these crucial materials, especially to the United States, amid growing trade tensions between the two nations.
Antimony, widely used in semiconductors and military applications, has seen its price surge by about 250% in 2024. As of December 31, prices were already trading between $39,500 and $40,000 per metric ton in Rotterdam, and traders expect the price to exceed $40,000 per ton following the export restrictions. These prices are significantly higher than in previous years, with some traders already selling small quantities at the $40,000 mark. Non-Chinese suppliers are also expected to raise their prices to capitalize on the growing demand.
China is the world’s dominant producer of antimony, contributing nearly 50% of global supplies, which were estimated at 83,000 tons in 2024, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. As a result, the country’s export ban has prompted concerns over a global supply shortage. While the U.S. has made efforts to diversify its supply chains away from China by sourcing more materials from Southeast Asia, the immediate gap left by the ban remains a challenge.
China’s ban is part of a broader trend where it has restricted exports of several critical minerals, signaling a shift toward internal consolidation of mineral production. The U.S. has already adjusted its sourcing strategies for minerals like gallium and germanium, but these curbs have minimal impact since the U.S. has reduced its reliance on Chinese supplies of these materials. However, the market’s response to these bans has been to drive up prices, with traders exploiting the situation to push prices higher.
Experts have raised concerns about China’s growing influence over global mineral markets, prompting speculation that other metals, such as bismuth and manganese, could be targeted for future export restrictions. As the U.S. and other nations seek to reduce their dependence on China for critical minerals, self-sufficiency has become a priority for governments.