Putin’s Response to Ukraine Missiles Could Include Nuclear Test, Experts Say

As tensions between Russia and the West escalate over Ukraine, experts warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin may consider a nuclear test to demonstrate his seriousness if Western nations permit Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russian targets. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and U.S. President Joe Biden are currently discussing the possibility of supplying Kyiv with U.S. ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles, which could change the course of the conflict.

Putin issued a clear warning on Thursday, stating that the West would be directly involved in fighting Russia if such missiles were deployed. While he has promised an “appropriate” response, the specifics remain unclear. Ulrich Kuehn, an arms expert, suggested that Putin might consider testing a nuclear weapon as a dramatic escalation to convey intent and intimidate Western powers. Russia has not conducted a nuclear test since 1990, and a test now could signal a dangerous shift in the conflict’s trajectory.

Other experts, such as Gerhard Mangott from the University of Innsbruck, agree that a nuclear test, though unlikely, remains within the realm of possibility. They also highlight the risks of Russia escalating “hybrid” actions like sabotage in Europe or interference in Western elections. Russia’s UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, warned that if NATO allowed Ukraine to use long-range weapons, it would be considered a direct conflict with a nuclear power.

Former Kremlin adviser Sergei Markov predicted that Moscow could also respond by targeting British military assets or engaging in hybrid warfare, such as striking British drones and warplanes near Russia. The potential for significant escalation, including attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure or further hybrid actions, remains a key concern, as analysts debate where Putin’s red lines truly lie.