What’s Next for Meta’s Metaverse?

In October 2021, Mark Zuckerberg redefined the trajectory of his social media empire by rebranding Facebook as Meta, signaling a shift in focus toward the emerging metaverse. The move marked a strategic pivot for the trillion-dollar company, aiming to showcase its ambitions beyond being a social networking platform.

“The company Facebook wanted to make clear that it was more than just that one social website,” said Leo Gebbie, principal analyst and director at CCS Insight.

The Vision Behind the Metaverse

Zuckerberg’s vision of the metaverse isn’t new; it dates back to 2014, when Facebook acquired Oculus, a virtual reality (VR) headset developer, and launched Reality Labs. The company sought to position itself as a leader in immersive technologies, banking on the rapid growth of the global gaming and VR markets, which saw revenue exceed $193 billion during the pandemic.

“There was a bit of a sense in 2020 and into 2021 that this was a technology that was ready, that it was finally going to hit the big time,” Gebbie noted.

In December 2021, Meta launched Horizon Worlds in the U.S., a virtual reality platform designed as an open-world social space. While the platform’s initial target was to reach 500,000 monthly active users by the end of its first year, Zuckerberg’s long-term ambition was much grander: he envisioned the metaverse hosting one billion users by the end of the decade, engaging in significant e-commerce activity worth “hundreds of dollars” per user annually.

Challenges and Setbacks

Despite lofty ambitions, the metaverse has struggled to deliver on its promises. By late 2022, Horizon Worlds had just 200,000 monthly active users, according to an internal report cited by The Wall Street Journal. Interest in the concept of the metaverse itself waned sharply, as reflected by declining search trends on Google post-2022.

Additionally, Meta’s Reality Labs has faced steep financial losses, amassing $58 billion in operating deficits since 2020. These challenges have cast doubt on the metaverse’s feasibility and its capacity to generate sustainable user growth.

Bright Spots: Augmented Reality (AR)

While the metaverse has yet to gain significant traction, Meta has found success in augmented reality. Its partnership with Ray-Ban on AR glasses has demonstrated potential, offering consumers a taste of the future of wearable technology. These developments suggest that while the metaverse vision might be faltering, AR could represent a more pragmatic near-term focus for the company.

Looking Ahead

As the concept of the metaverse fades from the forefront of public discourse, Meta faces an uphill battle to turn its bold vision into reality. To achieve long-term success, the company must address its user engagement challenges, refine its product offerings, and manage escalating financial losses.

Meta’s next steps may involve recalibrating its strategy to emphasize augmented reality and exploring partnerships that can complement its ecosystem of immersive technologies. The company’s ability to innovate and adapt will determine whether it can revive the metaverse or pivot toward more achievable goals.