China Retail Sales Surpass October Forecasts Despite Deepening Real Estate Slump

China posted stronger-than-expected growth in retail sales for October, signaling early success from its recent stimulus measures, even as its real estate sector continued to struggle.

Economic Indicators at a Glance

• Retail Sales: Up 4.8% year-on-year, surpassing the 3.8% forecast and improving from 3.2% in September.
• Industrial Production: Increased by 5.3% annually, slightly below the expected 5.6%.
• Fixed Asset Investment: Rose 3.4% year-to-date, missing the 3.5% estimate.
• Real Estate Investment: Plummeted 10.3% year-to-date, marking the sharpest drop since August 2021’s 10.9% decline.
• Unemployment Rate: Dropped to 5%, an improvement from 5.1% in September, with youth unemployment also showing signs of recovery.

Stimulus Impact and Sectoral Insights

1. Retail Recovery:
   • October’s retail sales highlight improved consumer sentiment, bolstered by October’s Singles’ Day shopping festival. Analysts noted robust growth in sectors like e-commerce and consumer electronics.
2. Real Estate Woes:
   • The property sector’s decline deepened, with new property sales showing narrower declines but remaining weak.
   • Authorities reiterated commitments to stabilize the sector, projecting recovery within 12–18 months.
3. Manufacturing and Infrastructure:
   • Investments in manufacturing and infrastructure picked up slightly, reflecting a shift toward targeted economic support for foundational sectors.

Policy Landscape

China’s government has rolled out aggressive stimulus measures since September to address its economic challenges:

• Monetary Policy: Interest rate cuts by the central bank and extended real estate support.
• Fiscal Measures: A five-year, 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to alleviate local government debt, with hints of further support in 2024.
• Consumer Incentives: Limited direct measures, but trade-in programs for cars and home appliances have helped bolster sales.

The National Bureau of Statistics emphasized the need for intensified policy implementation to meet the country’s annual growth target of around 5%.

Broader Trends and Challenges

• Exports Surge, Imports Lag: October saw the fastest export growth in over a year, while imports remained subdued, reflecting weak domestic demand.
• Inflation: The core consumer price index rose 0.2% year-on-year, slightly better than September’s 0.1%.
• Golden Week Insights: Spending trends during the holiday remained cautious, though better-than-expected Singles’ Day sales hint at potential resilience in consumer activity.

Economic Outlook

China’s gross domestic product grew by 4.8% in the first three quarters, and authorities remain focused on achieving the 5% growth target for the year. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with signs of stabilization in certain sectors tempered by persistent domestic and international headwinds.