Roblox Shares Tank After Weak Forecast, Fueling Fears of Slowdown in Gaming
Shares of Roblox (RBLX.N) plunged by 17% on Thursday after the gaming platform issued a weak forecast for its 2025 bookings, sparking concerns about a slowdown in its growth following years of rapid expansion. The company anticipates bookings to fall between $5.20 billion and $5.30 billion for the year, with the midpoint falling short of analysts’ expectations, which were pegged at $5.27 billion.
The forecast adds to the growing unease within the video game industry, which has been facing sluggish growth. Electronic Arts (EA.O) also recently reported weak bookings, primarily due to its underperforming soccer franchise. However, Roblox’s projected growth still points to a third consecutive year of approximately 20% growth in bookings, even as the broader gaming market struggles with weak consumer spending due to inflation.
Roblox’s Chief Financial Officer, Michael Guthrie, defended the company’s performance, noting that Roblox continues to grow at a rate significantly higher than the overall gaming industry, which grew by just 2.1% in 2024 according to Newzoo. The platform has thrived by expanding into new game genres, especially those targeting older players, and by unlocking new revenue streams through ads and e-commerce. Additionally, Roblox’s free-to-play model and its user-generated content have helped the platform weather the broader gaming slowdown.
Despite the weak forecast, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter dismissed the market’s reaction, calling it “unwarranted” and “irrational.” He maintained an “outperform” rating on Roblox stock, with a price target of $83, the highest on the street.
Roblox’s daily active users fell to 85.3 million in the fourth quarter, down from 88.9 million in the previous quarter. Bookings for the quarter were $1.36 billion, slightly missing analysts’ estimates of $1.37 billion. Guthrie attributed the weaker results to tough year-over-year comparisons, notably following the PlayStation launch, which drove a surge in new users and spending in the same period last year. He also pointed to the platform’s suspension in Turkey, where Roblox was banned due to safety and child abuse concerns, as another factor impacting growth.